Guidelines for adjusting investment plans Focus on limiting risks
At the end of 2562: The S&P 500 Index closed at 3,230.78 points. The 10-year US government bond yield (US10Y) was at 1.919% per year. The CBOE Volatility Index, which reflects volatility in derivatives of the S&P 500 Index (VIX), was at 13.78. The SET Index closed. at 1,579.84 points and the 10-year Thai government bond yield (TH10Y) was at 1.49% per year. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSEC) index closed at 3,050.12 points. The gold price was at 1,517.18 US dollars per ounce (USD/Oz). Brent crude oil price at 66.00 United States dollars per barrel (USD/bbl)
January 2563 : The World Health Organization (WHO) began issuing its first official Situation Report on January 21, stating that WHO in China was notified at the end of 2562 that a person infected with the respiratory tract infection had been found. Breathing for no apparent reason Later on January 7, the Chinese authorities announced that the infection symptoms Caused by a new strain of coronavirus
On January 13, the Ministry of Public Health of Thailand reported to the WHO that it had found the first case of a new strain of coronavirus. who had traveled from Wuhan, China. In the first WHO report on January 21, there were 278 patients in China, 2 in Thailand, 1 each in Japan and South Korea, for a total of 282 cases, while as of 31 January it had passed. Just 10 days from first report Globally, the number of infected people has risen to 9,826, with the majority in China. In Thailand, there are 14 infected people.
In financial markets, the S&P 500 Index closed the month at 3,225.52 points, virtually unchanged from year-end 2562 levels. The VIX rose slightly to 18.84, while the US10Y edged down to 1.52%, reflecting increased buying pressure in bond markets.
The SET Index moved down to close at 1514.14 points, or a decrease of 4.2% from the end of 2562, and TH10Y moved down to 1.31% per year, reflecting the same buying pressure in debt instruments in the United States.
China's SSEC index closed ahead of the Chinese New Year at 2,976.53, down 2.4% from the end of 2562. Gold prices rose to 1,589.69 USD/Oz, up 4.8%, while Brent crude oil closed at 56.64 USD/bbl, down 14.2%.
As for the policy interest rates of important central banks around the world including Thailand It remains at the same level from the end of 2562, that is, the US Fed Fund Rates remain in the range of 1.5-1.75% per year, the BOE Bank Rate is 0.75% per year and the Thai policy interest rate remains at 1.25% per year.
Overview of January 2563 Thai-China stock index Including in countries nearby China Starting to show negative symptoms This is because the number of infected people in the region has begun to increase, while stock indices in the United States and Europe remain stable. Because the number of infected people is still low, the bond market has more purchasing power.
While most central banks have not yet made any changes to their policy interest rates, commodities that are commonly used as a hedge against risk such as gold The price has increased Meanwhile, crude oil prices are much lower. which varies according to demand from world economic activities that are showing signs of slowing down. In addition, tensions between the United States and Iran at the beginning of the month did not escalate.
February 2563 : As of February 15, the WHO reports that the number of cases worldwide has risen to 50,580 and 1,526 deaths, almost all of them in China. There were still only 526 cases and 2 deaths outside of China. However, as of February 29, worldwide cases had increased to 85,043 and 2,924 deaths, with the majority still in China. But there is an important development. The number of infected people in other parts of the world has increased to 6,009, or 11 times in just half a month. while the number of deaths increased to 86
In the financial markets, the S&P 500 index closed the month at 2,954.22 points, down 8.4% from the end of January, in line with the VIX, which rose to 40.11. The US10Y had strong buying pressure that pushed the yield down to just 1.16%. year
The SET Index closed the month at 1,340.52 points, down 11.5% from the previous month, and TH10Y continued to move down to 1.17% per year, maintaining the same trend as the US bond market.
China's SSEC index closed at 2,880.30 points, down 3.1% from the previous month, which does not appear to have decreased much. But it is a recovery from a level below 2,800 points at the beginning of the month.
The price of gold was stable at 1,585.40 USD/Oz, but fluctuated greatly during the month. In the middle of the month, it rose to the level of 1,690 USD/Oz before being sold down. The price of Brent crude oil closed at 50.10 USD/bbl, down 11.5% from the previous month.
Policy interest rates of the United States and England It remains at the same level as the previous month. For Thailand, it was reduced from 1.25% to 1.00% at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on February 5.
Overview of February COVID-19 has had a clear impact on both public health and financial markets. The stock market dropped sharply. The bond market's yields continued to fall as purchasing power increased. Oil prices plummeted as demand decreased. Central banks in western countries have not moved yet.
March 2563 (until the 25th) : As of March 15, the number of global infections passed the 153,517 mark at 5,735, with 21,157 deaths, while the situation in China has clearly eased based on the number of new daily infections. But the European side is much more serious. The number of infections in Italy has reached 1,441, with 19 deaths. Europe is said to be in the second wave of COVID-XNUMX after China's first wave.
And most recently, as of March 25, infected people around the world increased to 414,179, with 18,440 deaths. Infected people in China have slightly increased. While Europe has a total of 220,516 infections and 11,986 deaths, the daily infection rate is relatively stable. The third wave has pointed to the United States. From the middle of the month there were 1,678 infected people, but only ten days had passed. There are an additional 51,914 people infected.
In the financial market, the S&P 500 Index dropped to 2,475.56 points, down another 16.2% from the end of last month. VIX rose to 63.95 following the index's strong swings and daily gains and losses of up to 5-10%. US10Y decreased. It came down to 0.86% per year, but during the month it fluctuated within a wide range of 0.50-1.25% per year, creating chaos in the world bond market.
The SET Index dropped to 1,080.03 points, down 19.4% in one month. And each day there is very high volatility at the level of 5-15%, causing the Stock Exchange of Thailand to adjust the criteria. Ceiling/Floor To narrow down from +/- 30% per day to +/- 15% per day. It was found that each day there were many medium to large stocks with positive or negative prices hitting a new threshold. It is considered to help control the daily fluctuations to a lower level than before.
Meanwhile, TH10Y increased to the level of 1.48% per year and during the month there was high volatility like the US stock and bond markets. This causes the Thai bond market and the investment industry in bond funds to be at increased risk. The government sector, including the Ministry of Finance Bank of Thailand As well as the SEC Office, a joint press conference was held to present policies to build confidence in this market.
At the same time, the policy interest rate was reduced by another 0.25% to 0.75% per year at the special MPC meeting on March 20, 2563 from the aforementioned government measures. This causes the yield on Thai government bonds to decrease. Instrument prices increase Effectively helps boost investor confidence.
China's SSEC index closed at 2,781.59 points, down slightly from the end of last month. But during the month there was fluctuation within a wide range of 2,660-3,071 points, like other financial markets.
Gold price is at 1,613.86 USD/Oz and has fluctuated throughout the month. In the middle of the month, it dropped to the level of 1,450 USD/Oz, which is a decrease in the same direction as the stock market, which quite tears up the financial textbooks. It is expected that it is selling to use money to compensate for losses in stocks, along with selling to reduce risks in the picture. Overall, however, there has been a rapid recovery in recent weeks. The price of Brent crude oil was at 27.52 USD/bbl, down 45.1% from the previous month, which was mainly due to Saudi Arabia announcing price reductions for major trading partners and showing its stance on increasing production capacity in response to Russia's refusal to comply with the regulations. OPEC's proposal
As for the policy interest rate, the US Fed Fund Rates have been cut twice in the same month. Down to the level of 0.00-0.25% per year, equivalent to the level of the 2551 financial crisis. The Bank of England also cut the policy interest rate twice in the same month. Most recently it was at the level of 0.10% per year.
March overview (to date 25): Financial markets around the world are extremely volatile. The overall stock market dropped sharply and fluctuated daily within a wide range. The US bond market continues to receive attention but is highly volatile. Thai bond market Under the volatility, there is some selling pressure. But there have been supportive measures in many dimensions from the government as well.
Investment in mutual funds under such circumstances Treasury Fund It has advised investors of all risk levels to reduce the proportion of Thai stock funds twice. The first time was in February 2563, when the stock index began to fall sharply. Most recently, it is recommended to maintain the proportion of Thai stock funds at no more than 15% of the overall investment value.
If you want to limit your risk, it is recommended to switch to investing in bond funds with good quality instruments and an average remaining life of no more than 2-2.5 years in order to reduce price fluctuations. Or if you want to diversify and offset the risk from stocks, you can allocate some of it to invest in gold funds as well. In the past, it was able to significantly reduce the overall risk of the investment plan. and help maintain the overall investment value significantly. The situation must be monitored in the next period to consider adjusting to return to normal. When the financial market conditions reduce volatility and begin to recover steadily.
Reference sources: who.it, bot.or.th, bangkofengland.co.uk, federalreserve.gov, thaibma.or.th, cnbc.com, Aspen by ThaiQuest
