Continue to recover
Today's market is expected to see "Up" as support at 1,575 / 1,567 and resistance at 1,595 / 1,600. It is expected that the market will receive positive sentiment from the direction of the international market recovery. After reporting US economic numbers in many countries The sector indicates risks to the US economy in the next period. Whether it is the PMI numbers for September and construction spending numbers for August, which came out weak and lower than the market expected. Meanwhile, last night the US Department of Labor revealed the number of new job openings in August at 10.05 million positions, less than the market expected and the previous month at around 11.01 million positions, reflecting the US labor market beginning to slow down. Moreover, last night the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to raise interest rates by only 0.25% to 2.60%, which is a smaller interest rate increase than the market expected. It is expected that this will be an impetus for the market to begin to ease concerns about the US Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate increase somewhat in the next period. In line with the Dollar Index direction, it has begun to weaken, most recently at the level of 110.20, weakening from the previous peak at the level of 114.6, reflecting that the market has begun to accept more risk from the previous period. It is expected that this will be a factor supporting the price trend of risky assets to continue recovering. Most recently, CME FEDWatch Tools still expects the FED to raise interest rates by 0.75% and 0.50% at the FOMC meetings in November and December, resulting in the FED's policy interest rate being at 4.50% at the end of this year. And it is expected that interest rates will remain high throughout the year '66.
As for the price of WTI crude oil futures for delivery in November, rebounded last night, closing at 86.52 dollars/barrel +2.89 dollars (+3.46%), supported by the expectation that OPEC+ may adjust Reduced oil production capacity in November by approximately 0.5-1.0 million barrels/day at the OPEC+ meeting after oil prices began to decline in the previous period. Although it may cause the prices of oil and energy stocks to rebound in the short term. But it is expected that this will not have much impact on the direction in the medium term, as OPEC+ in the previous period was already unable to produce oil according to the quota of the meeting.
As for domestic factors, we still expect the Thai stock market to be able to outperform other markets from the Thai economic forecast in the 4th quarter. We expect to see a more pronounced recovery from the driving force of the tourism sector and domestic consumption. We expect that the number of tourists for the whole year '65 may increase to more than 10 million people, which is expected to support the direction of stocks in the Re-Opening Play group to continue to increase (CPALL, MAKRO, MAJOR, PLANB, BJC, MINT, SHR and VRANDA) while starting to see signs of commercial banks raising interest rates on both deposits and loans. Viewed as a positive factor for stocks in the banking group (BBL, KBANK, SCB and TTB).
However, we still recommend caution against selling pressure from foreign investors who continue to net sell the Thai stock market and remain on the short side of SET50 Index Futures due to the direction that the baht is still depreciating at a high level. It is expected that this will still be a factor limiting the upside to the recovery of the Thai stock market.
Investment Theme “Selective Play”
Today's recommended stocks “PLANB”
strategy Gradually buy and accumulate Support 7.00 / 6.85 Target 7.60 / 8.00 Stop <6.70
https://www.aira.co.th/upload/Market_1664934432_69558.pdf
