“Thai economy” tends to recover better than many other countries. “Asia Plus” recommends outstanding stocks in November with the theme Domestic Consumption.
Asia Plus Securities released an investment strategy analysis for November 2565 stating that the cycle of fear is gradually weakening and the global financial market has already absorbed it in stock prices to a certain extent, starting with
1) Inflation is clearly falling. Both in the United States and Thailand The US dollar in September 8.2% has decelerated for 3 consecutive months and the research team expects it to tend to decline until it is below the market's expected interest rate of 5.0% in the middle of next year, similar to Thai inflation at the BoT. It is expected to enter the target range of 1-3% next year.
2) Interest rates are starting to approach the optimum point. Even though the market expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates by 0.75% to 4% in November. But next year, the upper limit for interest rate increases is limited to 5%. It can be seen that the level of upward movement is quite limited.
3) Although there are concerns about Recession in the United States, Thailand is still far away, as reflected by the long inverted yield curves of the 10-year and 2-year US bonds. It's different from the Thai Bond Yield which is still characterized by an Upward Slope. The 10-year Bond Yield is still 2% higher than the 1.3-year Bond Yield.
The Thai economy still tends to recover more prominently than many other countries as follows:
1) NESDB expects the Thai economy in 2565 to expand approximately 3%, indicating that during 2H65 it is likely to see GDP growth at a rate of 3.6%YoY (higher than 1Q65 and 2Q65 at 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively) and 2566. Continuously grows by 3.7%, contrary to the world economy which the IMF expects to grow only 2.7%.
2) The current account balance is expected to show signs of decreasing deficit. Both from the trade balance improving from imported energy costs which have started to decrease in the past 2-3 months, and the service balance improving from the tourism sector. After many countries relaxed measures for traveling across areas.
3) The rest of the year Expect a big package to stimulate the economy from the government, such as Half-Half Phase 6, Shopping to Help the Nation, etc.
4) This is the year that Thailand will host the APEC 2022 meeting, hoping it will be an important opportunity to help revive the economy.
In terms of Valuation, the Thai stock market still looks interesting and is in the stock accumulation zone, both from a P/E perspective of more than 17 times, lower than the historical average of 19.5 times, and a low PBV of only 1.5 times, down in the area close to -1SD at 1.66. Times, which in the past had been an important support, changed the trend to an uptrend in early 2559 along with various pressures. that the stock market has absorbed to a certain extent It should be a good time to start accumulating stocks again. By the research department Maintain year-end target of 1730 points
Meanwhile, foreign fund flow is one of the important variables that can determine the direction of the Thai stock market. This is reflected from this year's data. On the day foreigners net bought, the SET rose on average 0.3% per day (with a chance of a positive return of 80%). For the rest of the year The research department still believes that Fund Flow still has the opportunity to continue flowing into the Thai stock market. both from a low level of direct ownership of less than 22% along with negative factors starting to subside. The Thai economy moves faster than developed countries, all of which are good incentives for investment.
As for the top stocks of November, we recommend stocks with the theme Domestic Consumption to avoid fluctuations from external factors. Plus operating results will gradually recover in the 4Q65 period, continuing into 2566, such as CBG, CRC, CK, BBL, PLANB, GULF, SCGP.
