KBank expects the baht to strengthen in 66 after the Fed slows down interest rate increases. Tourism supports the Thai economy.

Mr. Kobsit Silapachai, Head of Economic and Capital Market Research at Kasikornbank Public Company Limited, stated that Kasikornbank has revised its 65 target for the Thai baht to 35.25 baht per dollar from the previous forecast of 37.50 baht per dollar. This is due to financial markets believing that inflation in the United States has passed its peak, which should lead to a slower pace of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and a possibility of interest rate cuts within the next year. This forecast has caused the US dollar to depreciate, resulting in a projected strengthening of the baht in 66, with a range of 33.50-34.00 baht per dollar.

“During the next 2-3 months, the baht may fluctuate. However, the baht may not appreciate exponentially.”

Mr. Kobsit said that while the domestic factor that affects the value of the baht in 66 is Thailand's economic growth that is expected to improve. Even though the world is facing an economic recession. It is expected that next year up to 20 million tourists will travel to Thailand, especially hopes from Chinese tourists.

Thailand's current account balance will improve. There are supporting factors from tourism and downward pressure from energy prices. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) will continue to raise interest rates in 66 due to pressure on inflation. and to reduce the interest rate gap between the BoT. and fades down next week The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to raise interest rates by 0.25% and will likely adjust the policy interest rate to 1.75%.

As for foreign factors, the Fed has slowed down the policy rate hike and cut the policy rate next year. weakens the US dollar

side of china may postpone the opening of the country Because people infected with COVID-19 In addition, the global economic recession put pressure on the growth of the global economy affecting Thai exports There are also geopolitical tensions that must be monitored.

“There is a very small chance that the baht will have a chance to touch 40.00 baht per dollar or touch 32.00 baht per dollar. Like at the beginning of this year It is considered that the appropriate currency for next year is 34.00 baht per dollar. Tourism will be the main and only factor of the baht. Especially tourists from China This will prevent the current account balance from becoming even more negative. However, there will be too many tourists coming in. It may cause the baht to strengthen greatly. Therefore, measures may need to be issued, such as exports.”