FPO cuts GDP in 66 to 3.6%, pointing out that "high electricity costs" have little effect on inflation.

Mr. Pornchai Thiravech, Director of the Fiscal Policy Office as a spokesman for the Ministry of Finance revealed that the Thai economy in 2566 is expected to expand at 3.6%, decreasing from the original expected expansion of 3.8%, as a result of the export sector that is expected to expand less. However, the Thai economy still receives support from improved consumption. The tourism sector continues to expand and inflation rates decline. However, monetary policy and financial institution problems in major economies still need to be closely monitored.

The Thai economy in 2566 is expected to expand at 3.6%, within the forecast range of 3.1% to 4.1%, continuing to recover from 2565 which expanded at 2.6% per year, supported by improved consumption and the sector. Tourism continues to expand Especially tourists from Asia and the European Union increased. It is expected that in 2566 there will be 29.5 million foreign tourists traveling to Thailand, expanding at 164.6% per year and it is expected that there will be income from tourism of foreign tourists of 1.3 trillion baht, accounting for 255.9%. per year, resulting in income from the tourism sector and related service businesses continuing to increase. This is consistent with the continued recovery of domestic demand.

It is expected that private consumption is expected to expand at 4.1%, within the forecast range of 3.6% to 4.6%, following the recovery of public sector income according to the domestic economic situation. This, together with falling inflation, helped increase consumption. As for private investment, it is expected to expand at 2.3%, within the forecast range of 1.8% to 2.8%, due to confidence in the domestic economy that has begun to improve in line with the direction of the overall economy.

However, the result of inflation is still high. The implementation of strict monetary policy and problems with financial institutions in major economies will cause the global economy to slow down in early 2566. It is expected that the value of merchandise exports in USD terms will contract slightly at -0.5% in the expected period. forecast at -1.0% to 0.0%. In addition, public consumption is expected to shrink at -2.1%, forecast range of -2.6% to -1.6%, and public investment expands at 2.6%, forecast range of 2.1% to -3.1%. 2567% is partly due to the process of preparing the annual budget for XNUMX being slower than last year.

In terms of stability within the country Headline inflation is expected to be at 2.6% (forecast range of 2.1% to 3.1%), adjusted to the inflation target range of 1.0% - 3.0% due to lower world energy prices. This puts pressure on the supply side from energy costs. and oil prices eased.

“Headline inflation is expected to be 2.6% due to lower global energy prices. This puts pressure on the supply side from energy costs. and oil prices eased. As for the rising cost of electricity, it has little effect on inflation because The proportion of electricity and water prices in the inflation basket did not reach 5.5%, while other energy prices in the inflation basket still tended to decrease. Therefore, we expect that the trend of inflation will still gradually decrease.”

for external stability The service balance is likely to return to a surplus following the increase in the number of foreign tourists. As a result, the current account balance in 2566 is likely to return to a surplus of US$ 4.2 billion, or 0.8% of GDP.

For factors that will affect the Thai economy There are supporting factors that need to be closely monitored, including (1) the tourism sector improving as reflected by a higher number of tourists of all nationalities than expected (2) the inflation situation decreasing faster than expected. This has a positive effect on increased spending within the country. and risk factors such as (1) the uncertainty of the world economy Volatility in the global financial market due to strict monetary policies of main trading partners and problems with financial institutions abroad. especially the United States and the European Union, and (2) global geopolitical risks in various regions, which may affect international security and various factors of production.

For the case where various political parties Issue a campaign policy that uses a large budget. Mr. Phonchai said After the election, the new government must still use the 2566 budget, waiting for the new government to prepare the 2567 budget.

The annual budget for 2567 is set at 3.35 trillion baht according to the medium-term fiscal plan (between 2567-2570), which has main goals including reducing the size of the budget deficit to no more than 3% of GDP and moving towards organizing Balance the budget within a reasonable period of time.

Even though you can still borrow more. But the government doesn't have to use it full circle. In order not to be a burden on the next generation to earn money to pay back. Including not affecting the country's credit rating. In order not to let various credit rating companies view that Thailand's spending is unreasonable In order for the economy to continue to grow strongly and sustainably

However, additional borrowing is possible. But it must be subject to various conditions, such as borrowing to be used for emergency situations. or borrowing for investment Create returns back to the country In terms of fiscal discipline, people often think that they should borrow for investment. to create employment economic circulation and raise the country's industrial level, etc.