Thai stocks today retreated to the support level of 1,490-1,520 points, expecting the Fed to continue raising the budget. Bond yield Thai new high 3.26 % weak baht

Kasikorn Securities assesses that Thai stocks today (Sept. 21) will continue to rest after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its policy interest rate but has not yet signaled a stop from raising interest rates. Evaluate the trading framework 1,490-1,500/1,520 points recommended stocks PSL and BH

The Fed expects inflation to return to its target of 2% in 2569, resulting in the value of the US dollar. and rate of return (Bond Yield) US Bonds adjusted upward, which is negative for capital flows (fund flows) and investment conditions

Mr. Apichart Phubanchaikul, CISA, Senior Director of Strategic Analysis at TISCO Securities, views the Thai stock market today as fluctuating sideways downwards after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but signaled further rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the market revised its forecasts by placing more weight on the Fed's interest rate hikes for the rest of this year. And the policy interest rate forecast (Dot Plot) indicates that interest rates will fall more slowly than the market or the Fed previously estimated. which is expected to decrease in the second half of next year This is because the labor market remains strong. As for inflation, it continues to fall slowly.

However, the rate of interest reduction From the beginning it was reduced to a percentage. It is now down just 0.5%, reflecting that the Fed is still trying to raise interest rates at a relatively high level. and rose longer than the market expected. This is a factor that causes government bond yields in Europe to increase. and the baht depreciated It is expected that today foreign investment will continue to flow out.

Factors that need to be monitored after this are the Bank of England (BoE) meeting today, which is expected to continue raising interest rates to 5.5%, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, keeping an eye on the direction of sending signals to adjust monetary policy in future which if signals that monetary policy will be tightened in the future It may cause bond yields and global liquidity to decrease.

Krungsri Securities estimates the SET index will weaken to support levels of 1,500 / 1,490 points, following the trend of regional stock markets after the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% as expected. However, the Dot Plot signaled a further 0.25% interest rate hike to 5.50%-5.75% by the end of the year due to high inflation.

Finansia Syrus Securities: The SET Index is likely to continue fluctuating downwards, with the main support level from the previous rallies at 1,500-1,490 points.

Thai stocks were pressured today by international factors following the Federal Reserve meeting results, particularly the Dot Plot, which were more hawkish than the June meeting. The outlook for interest rates in 2567 remains higher than previously projected, causing bond yields and the Dollar Index to continue rising.

Despite increasing the GDP forecast for 2566-2567 and lowering the Core PCE forecast for 2023, overall the results of the meeting still put pressure on risky assets.

Domestic factors are still under pressure from the bond yield issue as well. The 10-year Thai government bond moved up to a new high continuously at 3.26% from both the opportunity from the Monetary Policy Committee. (MPC) will still raise interest rates by 0.25% to 2.5% at the meeting at the end of September.

The market is also concerned about the gradual increase in public debt-to-GDP ratio due to high-budget economic stimulus policies, particularly the 1 baht digital currency, which may face a downgrade in its outlook from credit rating agencies. The energy sector is expected to cool down as crude oil prices begin to fall and is at risk of being impacted by government policies aimed at reducing domestic energy prices.

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