The Household Sector Index (KR-ECI) has deteriorated in the past 8 months, worried about rising expenses from rising product prices.
The KR-ECI Index in April 67 dropped to the lowest in 8 months, with households worried about rising product prices. and increased spending during festivals
May 9, 2024 - Kasikorn Research Center released the Household Economic and Living Conditions Index (KR-ECI) for April 2024, showing a decrease for the first time in eight months to 36.6, down from 38.7 in March 2024. This level remained stable throughout the first quarter of 2024. All components of the index decreased this month.
The price component dropped to its lowest level in 11 months, reflecting that households are more concerned about rising product prices. This is partly a result of the government's reduction in energy price subsidies. and allow prices to more accurately reflect true costs.
The retail price of diesel fuel increased by 1 baht to 31 baht per unit, along with the price of agricultural products also increased because production was affected by the extremely hot weather. which contributed to Thailand's general inflation rate in April 67. Returned to positive for the first time in 7 months at 0.19%YoY.
In addition, in April 67 which has a long holiday from the Songkran festival Households are therefore concerned about increased expenses and debt.
“The results of the survey found that Compared to the previous month (March 67), the majority of households (79.9%) stated that expenses had increased. This came from a 47.1% increase in product prices, followed by households having social events such as merit-making ceremonies, 23.2% more than the previous month, as well as having extra expenses from daily living expenses such as travel and social gathering expenses, 18.9%.”
Meanwhile, the next 3-month index decreased for the second consecutive month to 2 from 38.6 in March 39.2. Households are more concerned about their debt burden in the future. amid the burden of household debt that is still at a high level Meanwhile, financial costs remain high and debt repayment ability decreases.
In addition, domestic energy prices tend to gradually increase. Amid the increased use of the government budget and debt to subsidize domestic energy prices in the previous period. In addition, the trend of world energy cost prices is still quite volatile. and may remain at a high level due to geopolitical problems that still remain.
In 2567, Kasikorn Research Center has the view that The household living situation index in the period ahead is in a fragile recovery direction. amid the trend of the Thai economy recovering slowly and price pressure that may increase in the future
Thailand's general inflation for the remainder of 2567 is likely to continue to be positive. From the price of energy in the country that is expected to gradually increase. and agricultural product prices may be tight due to unfavorable weather conditions for cultivation.
Moreover, if there is an increase in the minimum wage in October 67 This will further result in Thai inflation in 2567 rising from the 0.8% that was originally expected. In addition, high levels of household debt and financial costs remain factors that put pressure on the recovery of the index.
However, the Budget Act for 2567 came into effect in April 67. It will probably result in money from the government coming in to help support additional economic activities. While it is still necessary to follow the details of the large-scale economic stimulus measures from the government (Digital Wallet project) that may help support the outlook for household expenses to improve in late 2567.
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