Iran-Israel tensions, what effect does it have on “Asia”?
Trade between Thailand and Iran in 2018 2566 Iran is ranked 95th as Thailand's trading partner and 12th in the Middle East. and the trade value between them was 142.83 million US dollars, a decrease of 28.5% compared to the previous year. Thailand is the one with a trade balance worth 127.43 million US dollars.
"Iran" It is one of the countries with high potential for producing and exporting crude oil. This has caused many countries that need to import crude oil to pay more attention to Iran. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused oil prices to soar. and Western powers implemented sanctions on oil imports from Russia.
But different countries Those who see Iran as a solution may face a stalemate. On April 13, 2567, Iran launched its first direct attack on Israeli territory. By using drones to drop bombs and launch missiles. The attack was in response to Israel's attack on Iran's consulate in Syria on April 1. The turmoil is seen as threatening to deepen conflict in the Middle East.
As a result of the tense situation between the two countries, the United States and its allies immediately condemned Iran's move. In addition, all countries in the Asia-Pacific region They issued statements expressing deep concern about the Iran-Israel conflict. along with calling on all parties to exercise patience and restraint Turn to diplomatic negotiations To maintain peace and security in the Middle East
A new round of dust settles in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. Causing the world to fear that it might cause a big war. And of course, Western nations must impose new sanctions. As a result, questions have been raised about who the conflict will affect and how Iran will escape sanctions.
A look at Iran's foreign policy
After the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran pursued an independent foreign policy. But as time passed, conflicts with the West increased, causing the principle of "non-alignment" or not choosing sides to the West or the East. It may not be Iran's foreign policy anymore. Because Iran appears to be trying to create an alliance with the eastern powers.
Iran's "Look East" policy is an important strategy. It aims to strengthen political and economic ties with Asia, which is seen as a potential market for oil and gas exports. investment source and technology transfer To achieve the goal of expanding the alliance network and reducing susceptibility to the influence of Western powers. Moreover, the “Look East” policy was devised to alleviate the nuclear crisis, which has been heavily pressured by Western countries with sanctions. Iran has therefore turned to rely more on the east.
However, even though Iran would benefit from a greater focus on eastern countries, But Iran has limited foreign policy compared to its neighbors, which can strike a balance between the west and east.
Conflict creates ripples in “Asia”
The conflict between Iran and Israel If it becomes more severe, it will definitely have an impact around the world. But when focusing on different countries In Asia, according to the “Look East” policy, each country may be affected differently by conflict.
The first country that cannot be overlooked is India. India is closely watching this chaotic situation. This is because there will be a high impact, which if the trend of conflict becomes more widespread, it may cause India to decide to take some unavoidable actions. In particular, security of trade and energy are India's top priorities. If the conflict worsens, it will have an impact on India's citizens and the country's economic security.
India, the world's third-largest oil-consuming country and home to about 3 billion people, imports more than 1,400% of its oil from other countries. in the Middle East to meet domestic demand. And because oil reserves are low enough to last about 80-1 months, there is a need to import a large amount of oil urgently.
Analysts say many of India's interests are at risk if the conflict escalates, with instability in the Red Sea also a concern. The recent attack on a cargo ship with an Indian crew by Iranian Revolutionary Guards near the Strait of Hormuz further highlights the impact on India's interests.
However, under the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India-Israel strategic relations in both the military and Agriculture and technology are becoming more closely aligned. Mr. Modi's visit to Israel in 2560 was considered a historic visit as he was the first Indian leader to visit Israel. It paves the way for trade between the two countries to grow rapidly, nearly doubling from USD 2 billion in 2-5,560 to USD 2561 billion in 2562-10,700, while trade between India-Iran decreased in the past decade The relationship is less strategic than when Iran was a major crude oil supplier to India.
Another country that has extremely important economic relations with Iran is “China”. China has been Iran's largest trade partner for more than 10 years, especially in oil trade. During 2563-2566, the company China imports more than three times the amount of oil from Iran, making sales the highest in 3 years, but the two countries' economic ties are inconsistent. Last year, more than 10% of Iran's crude oil exports were sent to China. But China isn't the only one importing from Iran. Iran's crude oil accounts for only 90% of China's total crude oil imports into the country.
According to Chinese customs data, the trade value between Iran and China in the first two months of 2 was about 2567 billion U.S. dollars, up 2,800 percent from the same period last year. China exports about $37 billion worth of goods to Iran and imports about $2,500 million worth of goods. Considered an increase of 829% and 45%, respectively.
China is considered one of Iran's key trading partners, maintaining trade with Iran despite heavy U.S. sanctions.
Besides India and China Countries that are members of "ASEAN" also have good trade relations with Iran. In 2565, the value of Iran's exports to ASEAN reached 2,371 million US dollars, an increase of 33% compared to the previous year. The country that is the number one destination is "Indonesia" and is followed by "Thailand".
For trade between Thailand and Iran in 2566, Iran ranked 95th as Thailand's trading partner and 12th in the Middle East. And the trade value between them was 142.83 million US dollars, a decrease of 28.5% compared to the previous year when Thailand had a trade balance worth 127.43 million US dollars.
Thai exports to Iran account for only 0.05% of Thailand's total exports. The top 10 important export products in 2566 include canned and processed fruits, rubber, motorcycles and components, rubber products, fresh, chilled, frozen and dried vegetables, fishing nets, machinery and machinery components, chemicals, and machinery. Drink and battery pots and components
The top 10 imported products in 2566 include fresh, chilled, frozen, processed and semi-prepared aquatic animals, vegetables, fruits and preparations made from fruits and vegetables, chemicals, other fuels, plants for breeding, milk and products. Dairy, metal products, other textile products, automotive components and equipment and machinery and components
The latest conflict has led to more new sanctions. It is expected that Iran will accelerate the creation of a self-reliant economic system (Resistance Economy) in order to reduce reliance on imported goods from abroad. Including supporting and protecting the domestic manufacturing industry to be strong and able to sustainably support the strict sanctions of the United States. This will result in various trade protection measures. with consumer products from abroad including Thailand Thai export products that may be affected include plastic products. Rubber and rubber products Prepared food, gems and accessories
Follow and read other columns. Available in the May 2567 issue of Finance and Banking Journal. Issue 505 In digital format: https://goo.gl/U6OnIi
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