The value of the baht opened this morning at 36.66 baht/dollar.

The baht opened this morning at 36.66 baht per dollar. Weakened from the previous day's closing level of 36.54 baht per dollar.

24 May 2567 Mr. Poon Panichphibun, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited revealed that The baht opened this morning at 36.66 baht per dollar. Weakened from the previous day's closing level of 36.54 baht per dollar.

Since last night The value of the baht fluctuates and continues to depreciate. (Oscillating in the range of 36.47-36.66 baht per dollar) According to our risk assessment, the baht has a chance of weakening and testing the resistance zone of 36.65 baht per dollar. If the PMI index is reported for the manufacturing and service sectors Including the number of people applying for unemployment benefits (Jobless Claims) in the United States came out better than expected. which US economic data It actually came out better than expected.

by the PMI index for the manufacturing sector and the service sector It turned back up in May to the levels of 50.9 points and 54.8 points, respectively. The total number of people applying for initial unemployment benefits (Initial Jobless Claims) decreased slightly to the level of 2.15.

This picture has made market players worried that The Fed may keep interest rates high for longer. As a result, the dollar and the US 10-year bond yield rose.

As for the price of gold, it dropped more than -40 dollars per ounce. Pressure on the baht to face additional pressure from the flow of transactions to buy gold during the contraction period.

สำหรับ Trend of the baht value We view the continued depreciation of the baht last night. There is still a chance to continue, especially after the baht has weakened past the 50-day moving average, around the 36.50 baht per dollar zone.

From historical statistical data, it is found that if the baht is still in sideways swings, it can weaken past the 50-day moving average by approximately 20 satang.

In addition, the baht still has some pressure factors to depreciate. Whole commodity purchase transaction flow both gold and crude oil In the moment of contraction

Additionally, foreign investor fund flows may tend to be net sellers. After the market atmosphere turned back to being closed to accepting risks. We evaluate that The baht has the opportunity to fluctuate and depreciate to test the next resistance zone around 36.75-36.80 baht per dollar.

Incidentally, if the baht can strengthen somewhat, we think the baht may still be stuck in the support zone around 36.50 baht per dollar. Until there are new factors It has changed the views of market players, who are currently more concerned about the Fed interest rate trend.

We expect that we may have to wait until the end of May or the beginning of June. To make the market aware of the PCE inflation report and US employment balance to see a significant appreciation of the baht again

But you have to give it a try. The data is worse than expected or PCE inflation will only slow down more.

We maintain the same view that The baht continues to move with high volatility. Amid the changes in factors affecting the direction of the baht's value. As a result, market players should use a variety of strategies to close risks. Either using tools like Options or local currency. This will increase efficiency in closing exchange rate risk.

Looking at the baht today It is expected to be at the level of 36.55-36.80 baht/dollar.

US economic data report

Manufacturing and service sector PMI indexes came out better than expected. Makes players in the US stock market They are concerned that the Fed may keep interest rates high for a long time. and chose to sell growth style stocks, including tech stocks such as Tesla -3.5%, Apple -2.1%

But the US stock market Still getting some support from Nvidia +9.3% after reporting better-than-expected earnings. As a result, the overall S&P500 index closed the market at -0.74%.

On the European stock market

The STOXX600 index rose slightly +0.07%, although the European stock market was supported by an increase in stocks in the sector. Semiconductor, such as ASML +2.6% after Nvidia reported better-than-expected results.

But European stock markets are also facing pressure from concerns that Major central banks may not be in a hurry to cut interest rates. After the PMI index report of the United States, Eurozone and England came out better than expected.

On the bond market side

The US 10-year bond yield rose to nearly 4.50% after the US manufacturing and services PMI index surveyed by S&P Global in May. Came out better than expected This has caused market players to reduce the chance that the Fed will be able to cut interest rates about 2 times this year.

This is consistent with our view that the US 10-year bond yield may be more volatile. If the US economic data report Came out better than expected

However, we maintain the same view that The Fed is still likely to gradually reduce interest rates this year about 3-4 times, which is more than the market estimates. Therefore, we would recommend that market players focus on waiting for a Buy on Dip moment when bond yields are rising.

On the currency market side

The dollar gradually strengthened. Amid concerns about the Fed interest rate trend that has returned to put pressure on the financial market again. From the US PMI index report that came out better than expected. As a result, the overall Dollar Index (DXY) has risen past the level of 105 points (oscillating within a range of 104.6-105.1 points).

In terms of the price of gold

The rise of both the dollar and the US 10-year bond yield has pressured the price of gold (COMEX gold contract for delivery in June) to fall into the zone of 2,330-2,340 dollars per ounce. Some market players may buy gold at a short period of time. And this transaction flow also contributed to pressure on the baht to depreciate last night.

For today, market players are still waiting to assess the outlook for the US economy. Through reports of interesting economic data such as the total orders for durable goods (Durable Goods Orders) in April. and the U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May.

which market players will pay attention to The report forecasts short-term and long-term inflation rates reasonably. In addition, market players will be keeping an eye on the statements of Fed officials. To assist in evaluating the Fed interest rate trend in the next period.

On the English side Report on retail sales in April This will be information that market players will be waiting to keep an eye on. In order to assess the interest rate trend of the Bank of England (BOE), recently market players estimated that the BOE may begin to reduce interest rates in the third quarter.

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