Become a farmer (market) investor and grab 2 levels of luck and make long-term profits.

Is it raining heavily all over the place during this time? During the day the atmosphere looked bright and comfortable, but suddenly it rained heavily and the water flooded. And when the rain stopped for a while, the water receded. Everything will gradually pass.

The 'stock market' is the same too!!

In August 2567, we saw the world stock market plummet with various bad news. that came together News agencies around the world have headlines starting from 'Black Friday' (2 Aug.) to 'Black Monday' (5 Aug.) led by the US stock market and the Japanese stock market The picture is like seeing the stock market drowning in the Red Sea. This caused many investors to panic. Hurry and sell and run away.

The US stock market lost about 12%, while the Japanese stock market Flows fell more than 10% due to the impact of closing Yen Carry Trade positions after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in its latest meeting.

But after a few more days passed Many news agencies return to the market news headlines as 'Green Tuesday' (6 Aug.) and the latest situation (13 Aug.) US stocks are still green for the 4th consecutive day. Even though they have returned positive, it is not equal to the fall. in the previous period

At this moment, it's hard to guess, right? What else will happen to the stock market? Anyone who accidentally sold stocks following the previous news I could only exclaim: “Know this.” And now you may be thinking hard about what to do next!

Unstable symptoms It's normal for the stock market. There are ups and downs like rain and sunshine. We can't control the air. The same is true of the stock market.

But if you say you will 'Long-term investment'You have to look. 'long' Really…at least If you decide to do anything during this time It should be done correctly. To get yourself closer to your goal.

Today, I would like to invite you to take a long look at the stock market together and look for opportunities in times of crisis. If it happens, what must be done in the right way? Read until the end and follow along.

Ignore the turbulent world stock shocks - volatile financial markets It is not yet a signal leading to a severe recession.

In the past 1-2 weeks Investors opened their portfolios almost dizzy. The biggest reason that pushed the stock market down came from many negative factors that were too overlooked. But if we look at the main issues Give it well and you will find that

First issue: Have the fundamentals of the stock market changed? And is it the cause of the US stock market falling 12% in an unprecedented way? Or, in fact, in the past 2 years, the US stock market It has increased sharply by as much as 40%. Until this year, people are saying that Is it even too expensive?

But I think that in the past 1 month and today The fundamental factors in terms of profits of listed companies or Earnings have not changed. Many people still view everything quite favorably. Because the performance of listed companies (Ltd.) around the world is starting to improve. Starting from the first quarter of this year, it started to become clear, and in the second quarter, there are signs of improvement, especially for US listed companies, whose profits have returned to positive and very positive as well.

Second point The sharp adjustment of the stock market this time. It comes from concern that there will be a severe economic recession or a hard landing.

Even though two months ago The market still views the US economy as Still good, the labor market is strong. Inflation began to fall Therefore, it is estimated that US economy It may just be a slowdown or if there is a recession it will just be a soft landing, which is something that the market has already predicted and known in advance.

In just one month, the fundamental outlook for the economy changed very quickly. Just because I saw that the labor market numbers for July came out higher than expected. Regardless, the unemployment rate jumped to 1% and the non-agricultural employment rate decreased. Then analyze it as a trigger for the economy to have a chance of a severe recession. It became negative news, further worsening the stock market crash in addition to those affected by the Yen Carry Trade during the same period.

In fact, the direction of the US economy Will I be able to continue? In an environment with high interest rates of 5.25-5.50%, it is an issue that the world still needs to follow monthly data. Just like the Federal Reserve (Fed) always says.

After that, information came out that Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US rose less than expected. Inflation continues to slow down and is a sign that The Fed will definitely cut interest rates. This September This makes it positive news for US stocks. Continue to come back to life.

In addition, I look at the GDP numbers of the United States in the 2nd quarter of this year, which still grew 2.8% (YoY), which is quite good, and also grew at an accelerated rate from the first quarter. As for the last 2 quarters of this year, The market predicted that It shouldn't be too bad.

Looking at it, I still don't see any signs of the US economy. It will signal a crisis, as analysts are worried about. And the operating results of the company are considered good and usable. As for the world economy, there is still a service sector that looks good. The trade sector is also expected to return to expansion this year after being negative last year.

One last point The market has come back to ask: If the Fed moves to cut interest rates too slowly, it could send the economy into a severe recession. Until finally you will see a severe reduction in interest rates. The stock market therefore reacted like this. But when considering the past numbers, we still don't see those signs.

While normally the market will keep an eye on the inverted yield curve to see if there is a possibility of a recession within 12-18 months, this time it has been more than 2 years since the US economic figures. It still came out looking good.

Looking back to the past The Fed says it will cut interest rates only once this year. The stock market is still happy, but now that the Fed has signaled that it may cut interest rates 2-3 times, the market is no longer happy. I think part of it may be the issue of the US stock market. that has risen to become too expensive, which every time that moment comes There will be various reasons. Come sell and make a profit to make the stock go down. However, This time I have to admit that There is a main issue regarding closing the Carry Trade position, which is the main factor that pressures the need to sell. JP Morgan said that doing “Carry Trade” Worldwide, 75% of total doses have been withdrawn.

Coming back to the matter of lowering interest rates from the Fed. Today, inflation numbers have come down. If there are signs of a really bad economy, the Fed has room or is in a range where it can lower interest rates. If the Fed wants to do it Because currently the policy interest rate is as high as 5.25-5.50%.

Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said global financial markets are yet to show signs of worrying about a sharp economic slowdown. Although the S&P 500 index fell, it remained above its 200-day moving average and rates The 30-year bond yield has not yet dropped below 4%, which is not enough to change the market's view from expectations of a soft landing to a sharp one.

Moreover, investors still expect that The Fed will lower interest rates. This makes stocks still a more attractive option than bonds at this time.

Today, whether it is concern that... the US economy There is a tendency to enter a recession. US tech stocks are also falling. AI stocks that were once cheerful are also falling at the same time. Including the war between Israel. and Hamas which became more intense and Russia and Ukraine that are resurging.

Looking back, bad news or crises are normal things that happen to the stock market in a short period of time.

But in the end, we have to look at the fundamentals of the economy and the fundamentals of the company. Is it really that bad? Even today we know that the valuation of stocks is really high and profits have been made. It is homework that we have to analyze the trend of Companies and the economy Is it still bad or can I continue? And how to find the right time to invest next?

Grandpa Warren Buffett once said, “When there's a war, The most interesting thing to invest in is not gold, but good business stocks. that prices are falling” is a saying that can be used in every era and every era.

Therefore, long-term investment should be looked at. Are the income and profits of the business still growing? If they are still growing, then the price has fallen in the opposite direction. It is a very good investment opportunity.

Receive double luck from 'Stocks correcting all over the world, baht strengthening' 

For this round, stocks fell and corrected all over the world. It is considered a good time to invest. And I have another good news to tell you. Now the baht has continued to strengthen due to the Fed's trend of interest rate cuts. This is from various situations. forcing the Fed to cut interest rates Plus in the United States may enter 'Economic recession' increases the opportunity to see the benefits of lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy in the long run.

ปัจจุบัน 'Exchange rate' ของ 'Baht' is at 35 baht per 1 US dollar, which 'Appreciate' The highest in 8 months and an appreciation from the peak period of more than 5%.

You've got double luck! Because apart from the moment when many stocks correct down, waiting for you to seize the opportunity and still receive benefits from 'The value of the baht' that is gradually increasing Continuously strengthening, especially investing in the US stock market where there is now an 'opportunity' in a 'crisis' hidden.

Luck number 1 is exchanging money. 'dollar' Now use 'Baht' less and 2 'Cheap stocks' Bought with money earned at a cheap price

And there is also statistical information to emphasize in 'Strength' Hidden in the US stock market

Recently, strategists from Goldman Sachs pointed out that this month will be a short opportunity. Last chance to buy 'US stocks' before the market rises again next month. This is because the selling pressure from funds has begun to ease. At the same time, various companies Increasing share repurchases US stock market Going through the worst part of August.

Previously, Goldman Sachs revealed that when US stocks fell -5%, there was always a good opportunity to buy.

From statistics and analysis of S&P 500 index data since 1980, if the price falls -5% 39 times each time, what will follow is:

1) Within 1 month, the index will increase by an average of +2%, and there is a 70% chance that the return will be positive after the decline.

2) Within 6 months, the index will increase on average +7% and has an 85% chance of being positive.

3) Within 12 months, the index will increase on average +11% and has an 75% chance of being positive.

This data shows that a decline of -500% in the S&P 5 Index is usually a good investment opportunity. This is because the index tends to recover and provide good returns in the period after a decline.

Preparing for market correction (Market Correction) is therefore necessary. and is considered a useful thing for investors Because it is an investment opportunity with a high chance of making a profit in the long run. According to past statistics from Goldman Sachs.”

If we are going to invest in individual US stocks, we should choose a growth group such as The technology group has dropped quite sharply. The health group, where I have information on individual stocks that have been analyzed in depth to recommend, can be viewed at jitta.com.

The other two markets are investment opportunities right now. I still give it to

Countries where the economy is still growing well And the price is still cheap. 'Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets' With a P/E value of approximately 10 - 12 times, the CSI 300 index is at 12 times, while the HSI index is at 10 times.

ซึ่ง 'Chinese stock market' That was talked about a lot this year. and has improved since the beginning of the year before falling in the second quarter after being hit by heavy selling by foreign investors.

I view these 3 signals as important opportunities to push Chinese stocks. Able to overcome the fluctuations

The first sign is that money has an increased chance of flowing into emerging markets.

If the US announces lower than expected inflation This makes it very likely that the Fed will cut policy interest rates 2-3 times this year, and there is a very high chance that it will start cutting interest rates for the first time in September.

When the Fed cuts interest rates, some money or Fund Flow will flow into emerging stock markets. And the Chinese stock market will benefit because of Valuation or valuation. It is still considered cheap compared to the past. or other major stock markets

Second signal: China is accelerating economic and social development.

From the Third Plenum meeting on July 15-18, which was a general meeting of the highest decision makers. to set the country's guidelines Makes it possible to see signs of development in various areas of the Chinese economy Both aim to raise the level of the economy. develop technology and new industries Including the relaxation of various regulations. for the GDP growth target at 5%

Although it was not as clear as many had previously expected. But the support guidelines from the government also show an improving trend of the stock market.

Third signal: China issues capital market reform measures.

On June 12, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) or China's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a statement on 9 capital market reform measures. Emphasis is placed on improving the quality of listed companies. Increase transparency to support long-term investment​

From the two reforms in the past, in 2 the Chinese stock market increased by more than +2547% in the next 340 years, while in 4 it increased by more than +2557% in the 100 year later, which is a sign that The 'Chinese stock market' has a chance to improve this time as well.

These 3 signs are pointing out that...the future opportunities of 'Chinese stock market' is still interesting.

Although China has continued to face fluctuations in the past, The stock market has dropped somewhat. But the overall fundamentals still have a good direction. The government hastened to solve various problems. and develop continuously

I believe that Chinese stocks in both markets still have opportunities for long-term growth. And this opportunity is a good time to grab quality stocks. At a cheaper price.

Which in my style of investing in the VI line is Looking at the value of the purchase It doesn't have to be stocks. But when you want to make a profit from something You have to look for quality products and buy them at a price that is lower than the level of quality or value. which in the end One day we will continue to make profits because of good things. In the long run, it will be something that only people want.

Actually, it's like a principle. Warren Buffett's 'Invest in good businesses at reasonable prices'.

Grandfather Buffett sells stocks to reduce risk Stock up on liquidity and wait to buy cheap things. Be a farmer (market) investor

And I would like to take the opportunity to update you on Warren Buffett's movements and his perspective that leads beyond his shots.

During the past second quarter Grandpa sold a lot of stocks. (Information from Berkshire Hathaway's second quarter filing) and turned to holding more cash. By investing in short-term US bonds or Treasury bills, it increased to $8.1 billion. This brings the total value of holdings to $2.34 billion from $1.53 billion. in the previous quarter But the big issue is Grandfather's Treasury bill holdings were higher than the amount of short-term government debt held by the Fed at the end of the same period, about $1.95 billion. Or holding $3.9 billion more than the Fed.

Of course, Grandfather may see signs of uncertainty that will occur in the near future, with Berkshire Hathaway accelerating the sale of shares to reduce risk. and increase liquidity to stock up and wait for a new investment round

Trends in the world's investment atmosphere are cloudy and dusty. Uncertain or highly volatile economic forecasts The problem of distrust in central banks Presidential election at the end of the year and various risk factors that cannot be predicted in advance This makes Grandpa more cautious about investing at the most intensive level. At the same time, the stocked liquidity is high. I'm ready to take out money and invest in good stocks. New rounds in the future at a lower price.

Grandfather's Golden Sentence “Be greedy when others are fearful. Be afraid when others are greedy.” A simple comparison is to be a farmer (market) investor who likes the timing when the market is low. More than an up market And are ready to move towards the market that has dropped heavily until it is stable. It can be said that the bad news that comes out will not affect or adjust down any further.

This is a VI that likes good things at cheap prices. But I still secretly love having fun. Wait for the moment when it bounces up. Then continue looking for markets that are falling heavily. I hope it will help you have confidence in being a farmer (market) investor.

I always emphasize to investors that Don't be too afraid. Every crisis is an opportunity, sooner or later, the stock market will eventually come back up. As long as we choose the right investment assets. In the end, we will make a profit ourselves.

And of course, the stock market is something we can't control like the weather. Therefore, we should do things we can control, that is, take care of managing our investment portfolio by diversifying risk across a variety of assets, creating a balance, and adjusting the risk level appropriately. Your overall portfolio will fluctuate only a little. Even Grandfather Buffet has adjusted his portfolio to balance. When seeing increased risk To make a long-term investment with peace of mind

Normally, I would advise clients to organize their investment portfolios into 2 parts: Core portfolio, which will be the main portfolio. Focus on investing in assets that provide consistent returns. There is low volatility or low risk. This portfolio will include bonds, stocks, and gold. It will be a portfolio that is resistant to many conditions that occur. Global ETF is considered an asset in the Core portfolio group.

Another Satellite portfolio invests in assets that expect high returns that come with high risks. Most of them are individual stocks in different countries or stock themes, which will be invested in during a time when stocks have greatly corrected. But the operating results are still growing. It is a quality stock and a business with a future that can be invested in the long term.

Organizing a Core & Satellite portfolio should include doing your homework on the assets you invest in. Because they invest in a variety of assets. In each category there are various factors. Be involved in different positive and negative aspects.

In addition to organizing your portfolio, you must allocate your investments with cold money. You should also pay attention to weighted average investing or DCA. It is another tool that will help diversify your risk. Even more efficiency Even at the beginning there is only a small investment. But if you can allocate money to invest monthly or every three months. as you specify At least it will allow you to buy the asset at a better price than buying it once and then stopping. Because the stock market has uncertain ups and downs, investing in DCA will help you have a good average cost. It also helps reduce volatility when there is a monsoon with heavy bad news. It will be a protective shield to make your investment more stable. Nowadays, more and more companies encourage you to invest in DCA with small amounts of money. It is considered a golden opportunity for you.

And if you invest with DCA, it's equal to 'Accumulate principal' Let your money work in full compounding. Upgrade the webport to reach the finish line goal faster.

The phrase 'Rules of this world That is, nothing comes easily.' No matter how old it is, it can still be used.

Golden rules of the investment world That will bring you returns always comes with risks...it depends on how you accept, prevent, or find ways to deal with that risk.

Selecting investment assets It's something you can control. and give the returns you want.

Because in the end 'crisis' It will just be 'Short-term flows' That can't do anything for your long-term investment.

As for dealing with various monsoons, I think the more important thing is 'Conscious' 'Calm Yourself' and invest correctly Focus on the big picture in the long term and replenish investment Seize investment opportunities for future profits May the port grow for a long time.