When the Fed cuts interest rates and the baht strengthens, investment opportunities arise.

In the past 'Stock Market' Many countries are going up and down like a roller coaster. Now news comes here, now news comes there, playing with emotions, making us 'Investors' I secretly feel a little shaken by the red ports every now and then.

This year is another year where asset markets are volatile and trying to find their own balance, with the turning point of global trends and interest rates of major powers led by the United States.

This week is a crucial moment that the whole world has been waiting for. The beginning of the US interest rate down cycle has begun. From the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17-18, 2567, the Fed has reduced interest rates by a single 0.5% as expected by the market. It is the first time in more than 4 years or since 2563.

Everyone must have many questions. When the Fed cuts interest rates, the stronger dollar affects the baht. How should we handle or adjust our portfolios? And what will happen in the future? I will update the world situation and invite you to do your homework and check the health of your investment portfolio for future growth in returns.

Fed cuts rates as expected, dollar weakens, bond yields fall, baht strengthens 5%

If you remember, in 2563, the Fed cut interest rates to near 0% (0%-0. 25%) to stimulate the economy amid the COVID-19 pandemic. When the situation returned to normal, the Fed started raising interest rates again from March 2565 to mid-2566, a total of 11 times, with the highest rate at 5.25%-5.50% and remaining steady until this FOMC meeting.

On September 12, the US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000, above the 227,000 economists had expected.

The trend of the US interest rate cut in the future will have to wait for a clear signal from the Fed chairman again. However, most speculate that the Fed may cut interest rates two more times, each time by 2% at every remaining meeting (in November and December 0.25). It is expected that by the end of 2567, the US policy interest rate will be 2567%-4.50% under the assumption that the US economy tends to slow down to a soft landing rather than a hard landing recession. The general inflation rate tends to gradually decrease to the target level of 4.75%. Recently, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) came out higher than expected.

The labor market is weakening.

Another trend that economists and former Fed chairmen of various branches expect is the possibility of seeing a 0.50% reduction in the policy interest rate at the remaining meetings this year, referring to the Fed Fund Futures of the CME FedWatch Tool as of September 12, 2567. Most markets see the policy interest rate falling to around 4.25% - 4.50% or 4.00% - 4.25% at the end of 2567.

As Bill Dudley, former president of the New York Fed, recently stated, the policy rate is currently above the neutral level of 1.50-2.00%.

Bond yields continued to fall as investors kept an eye on the outcome of the Fed's monetary policy meeting last week. The movement of US government bond yields decreased (September 16), with the 10-year government bond yield at 3.644% and the 30-year government bond yield at 3.968%.

As the dollar weakened against major currencies, it was in line with the decline in US Treasury yields. Last week, the dollar weakened against major currencies in New York trading on September 13 and fell to a nearly nine-month low against the yen after media reports renewed speculation that the Fed might cut interest rates by 9% at this FOMC meeting.

For the baht, after the dollar's rapid depreciation over the past 1-2 months, it has had an impact on the Thai baht. 'Appreciate' More than 5% against the dollar. Latest (20 Sept.) the baht closed at 33.05 baht/dollar.

The baht is strong and close to the 10-year average. Foreign investment opportunities have arrived.

Let's take a look at the main reasons why the baht has continued to strengthen recently.

first story The price of gold on the world market has hit a new record high, breaking through $2,600 per ounce. When the price of gold increases, investors sell the dollar, causing it to weaken, and hold gold or other currencies instead.

Next story The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 0.25% ahead of the Fed, but the ECB has given no indication that it will cut rates further at its next meeting, sending the euro higher and the US dollar lower.

Third story Money flows into Thailand The baht's strengthening is supported by foreign investors flowing back into the Thai stock market and Thai bonds and expectations of a better economy.

Now, the baht is strong. This is a good time for those who want to start investing abroad. Or for those who are already investing and want to increase their capital, this is another good opportunity.

Just by exchanging money, you will have 'profit' stored in your pocket.​

Let's look at the statistics of the movement of the baht against the dollar over the past 10 years (27 August 2557 - 27 August 2567). We found that the baht was in the range of 29 - 38 baht per dollar, or an average of 33.48 baht per dollar.

ซึ่ง 'The value of the baht' As of September 16, 2567, the market closed at 33.21 baht per US dollar, which is close to the above average. I think there may be a chance that it will strengthen a little bit.

But I believe that many people may have questions and wonders: Will the baht strengthen again? And is this really an investment opportunity? And those who have already invested abroad, are they also losing money from the exchange rate and stocks?

because 'Currency' This is one of the factors that affects the value of the portfolio, causing many people who have invested abroad to see their portfolios decrease during this period.

And actually 'Baht' At 'Appreciate' This is not unusual or scary.

I think that it is the opposite. 'chance' Good thing you can average the stock price with the same amount of money while 'Number of shares' In your hands there will be more

And if in the future 'The baht weakens.' Put your portfolio down and you will profit from 'Currency' With that

I believe that there are still many people who hesitate, waiting for the baht to strengthen further before investing more. But if you wait…can the baht strengthen further?

Is it worth investing in? I have the answer for you at the end.

For beginners who have not yet invested abroad or have been eyeing it for a long time, now is a good opportunity for you. For those who are eyeing foreign stocks, you can gradually exchange money and accumulate stocks during 'The baht strengthens' This way, there is a chance to get more shares. Moreover, during this period, many major stock markets have adjusted down quite a lot. This is an opportunity for you to choose to find good quality stocks that are cheap or suitable for investment. Or if you want to invest in ETFs that reference each country's market index or industry group index, various megatrends, this is a good opportunity to adjust the investment weight to be appropriate.

Over the past few weeks, I have been continuously advising Jitta Wealth clients on diversifying their portfolios. Some clients who want to choose their own investments or want to see information before making a decision can also view individual stock information on Jitta.com, which I offer for free to all clients, whether they are my clients or not.

Let me tell you about a case of a group of customers. This group of customers saw that the baht was strong at the moment, but they still couldn't decide what to invest in abroad or which stocks to buy. Some of them were not ready to accept the risk of losing their investment. But they were also afraid of losing this opportunity.

So I suggested to this group of customers that there is another investment option in the Money Market, which is investing in “Short-term US Treasury Bonds” It is considered an investment in assets with low volatility, has the opportunity to generate returns higher than deposit interest, and is suitable as a place to park money while you prepare to invest in quality assets in the future.

Some people may still be wondering and worried that the US is now entering a downward interest rate cycle. If you invest in US bonds, you will be affected by that. Let me emphasize that if you invest in a short period of time, the volatility that affects you will be less.

However, today, the world is more risky and complex. In the past, the IMF stated that the major concerns of the World Economic Forum (WEF) were the Top 5 global risks of the year that CEOs and global economic organizations are most afraid of right now are not inflation or interest rates, but Geopolitics, the problems of war crises, and conflicts between superpowers, which are the most risky factors for businesses, the emergence of the Multipolar World phenomenon (a multipolar world is one of the economic trends that makes investment more complicated today), and De-Risking, which will affect business models, business strategies, supply chains, and the sustainability of organizations.

'Balance your portfolio with DCA' and you will get good results.

In today's investment world, every asset has risks. Low-risk assets such as US Treasury bonds, which used to be safe, now have very low risks. But today, they are also facing volatility. The risks that come in are beyond our control, like the weather.

If you want to be a successful investor in generating long-term investment returns, you need to adhere to the correct investment principles by managing what you can control, doing your homework consistently, whether it is following important situations, reviewing and managing your portfolio, and diversifying your investments in various assets (Asset Alocation) is an important tool to help adjust your investment risk level to an appropriate level that you can accept. Creating a portfolio that balances both returns and risks is not easy, but it is not difficult either.

Good asset allocation often pays off because it leaves your overall portfolio with little volatility, and when a crisis hits, no matter how many, your portfolio will have some assets that will perform while others may struggle.

Because even Grandpa Warren Buffet, a world-class VI investor, has adjusted his portfolio to balance when he sees increased risk in order to make it a long-term investment that can generate returns as targeted.

Normally, Asset Alocation that I recommend to customers will be divided into 2 portfolios: Core portfolio, which will be the main portfolio, focusing on investing in assets that provide consistent returns, low volatility or low risk. This portfolio will have bonds, stocks, gold, and will be a portfolio that is durable in many situations that occur. Global ETF is considered an asset in the Core portfolio group. If you would like to know how to invest, you can ask me or my team for more information. I am ready to open an investment portfolio for you as a guideline for creating a balanced portfolio.

Another portfolio, Satellite Port, focuses on investing in assets that expect high returns that come with high risks, such as individual stocks in various countries or stock themes, which will be invested during periods when stocks have significantly adjusted downward but their performance is still growing. They are quality stocks and businesses with a future that can be invested in the long term.

When creating a Core & Satellite portfolio, you should also do your homework on the assets you invest in, as they are invested in a variety of assets. Each type will have different positive and negative factors involved.

In addition to the portfolio allocation, you should also focus on investment averaging or DCA. It is another tool that will help distribute risks more effectively.

Even though you have only a small investment at the beginning, if you can allocate money to invest monthly or quarterly as you have determined, at least you will be able to buy assets at a better price than buying once and stopping because the stock market has uncertain ups and downs, and from past statistics, it has been found that long-term investment, many stock markets have proven that: 'Uptrend' TGrads Over Others 'Downward'

Similarly, if you are already a long-term investor and want to reduce currency fluctuations that may affect your foreign investment portfolio as much as possible, DCA can help as well.

Because during the long-term investment period, you have to go through both periods of strong and weak baht, alternating. If you wait to catch the timing, you don't know when it will weaken or strengthen, or if you don't have time to follow it that much, or if you just hesitate, you may lose opportunities for nothing.

Therefore, in the long run, foreign investment will face fluctuations in currency values. DCA is the best way to avoid worrying or missing investment opportunities.

​DCA investing is a universal method that really works!

In addition to helping you have a good average cost, it also helps reduce volatility when there is a storm of bad news. It will be a shield to protect your investment to be more stable. Especially now that there are many companies that support you to invest in DCA with a small amount of money, it is a golden opportunity for you.

And if you invest with DCA, it's equal to 'Save the principal' Let your money work hard to compound and upgrade your portfolio to reach the finish line faster.

The phrase that 'The rule of this world is that nothing comes easy.' No matter how old it is, it can still be used.

Golden rules of the investment world That will bring you returns always comes with risks...it depends on how you accept, prevent, or find ways to deal with that risk.

Choosing an investment asset is something you can control and will give you the returns you want, whether you invest in bonds, stocks or gold. When volatility occurs due to any bad news storms,

Ultimately, a 'crisis' will just be a 'short-term trend' that cannot do anything to your long-term investment.

As for dealing with various monsoons, I think the more important thing is 'Be mindful.' and 'Calm Yourself' Then invest correctly, focus on the big picture in the long term, and add investment funds. Since the 'baht is in your favor' right now, seize the investment opportunity for future profits. May your portfolio grow in the long term.