"Trinity" selects 7 outstanding stocks in SETESG - SETHD worth investing in the first quarter of the Year of the Dragon.

Trinity Securities views the stock market as opening the Year of the Dragon with a sideways movement, setting a support level of 1410 points in a base scenario and 1515 points in a best-case scenario. They believe the Fed and the Bank of Thailand will not cut interest rates in the first quarter and have selected 7 stocks included in the SETESG and SETHD lists that tend to perform positively in the first four months of the year.

Mr. Natchat Mekmasin, Assistant Managing Director of Securities Analysis at Trinity Securities Co., Ltd., revealed the direction of the Thai stock market in the first quarter of 2567, or the Year of the Dragon, stating that the SET index is likely to fluctuate sideways from a baseline level of 1410 points, based on a forward PE of 12.5 times.

Meanwhile, internal liquidity is unlikely to flow into the Thai stock market much. After most of the money is still piled up in Foreign Currency Deposits (FCD), which is unlikely to see an outflow as the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the first three months of the year. As a result, the interest rate differential between the United States and Thailand is likely to remain wide as before.

“Thai and global stocks during the quarter will be affected by low levels of external noise, similar to the second half of Q4 2023. However, this doesn't mean that all stock markets will move sideways in the same way. It will depend on the performance of each stock market, which will vary somewhat based on the fundamental earnings trends of each country,” said Mr. Natchat.

Mr. Natchat stated that for the investment strategy in the first quarter of the Year of the Dragon, SETESG and SETHD stocks are likely to see inflows of funds. Based on historical data, a list of stocks in both indices has a statistically high probability (over 70%) of delivering positive returns during the first four months of the year.

You will get a list of 7 stocks that have passed all of the aforementioned criteria, including ADVANC, AP, BCH, INTUCH, PTT, SIRI, TISCO. Trinity therefore recommends these 7 stocks as Best picks for the 1st quarter and recommends Investors allocate their investments among these 7 stocks. 

As for Thailand, the forecast has been heavily revised down in the past. Until making it one of the worst stock markets in the world. If at the beginning of this year the economy gained momentum from measures to stimulate consumption (Easy E-Receipt), renewal of measures to reduce the cost of living

Including approval of the new budget. It is expected that we will start to see a trend of profit forecast adjustments for groups that are based on the domestic demand sector. When combined with the profit trends of Global cyclical groups such as energy and petrochemicals which should be stable due to the global economic situation which is not at risk of contracting sharply It is enough to believe that the profit trend of the Thai stock market in the first quarter It is likely that we will see a gradual increase in the estimate from the 4th quarter of 2566.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, asset movements will depend on two main factors : concerns about a global economic recession and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance on interest rate cuts – specifically, how quickly or slowly they will be implemented. If the Fed cuts interest rates sooner than the global economy shows signs of a recession, the SET Index could rise to test the best-case scenario level of 1515 points, based on a forward PE of 13.4 times.