Real estate moves into single-detached houses - semi-detached houses Fixing the shrinking middle and lower purchasing power game.

Real estate escapes the lower middle market, purchasing power shrinks - loans fail New townhouse launches dropped 22%. Entrepreneurs adjusted plans to build semi-detached houses and single-detached houses. Push units to expand 5.7-7.7%. Expected in 67, overall real estate ownership transfers will rebound 1.8%.

February 16, 2567 Dr. Wichai Wiratkaphan Banking Inspector and Acting DirectorReal Estate Information Center (REIC) revealed that Quarter 4 of 2566 had previously predicted that the real estate market would be positive, but it turned negative, reflecting that the overall market in the second half of the year was not very good.

Demand side From the transfer of ownership of residences in Thailand, there were 96,163 units, a decrease of -12.7%, divided into horizontal buildings, a decrease of -13.5%, and condominiums, a decrease of -11.0%.

whileValue of housing ownership transferNationwide, the amount was 279,875 million baht, a decrease of -9.7%, with horizontal buildings decreasing -8.0% and condominiums decreasing -13.5%.

The decrease in the value of ownership transfer has resulted in a decrease in the value of new mortgage loans as well. It was found that in the 4th quarter of 2566 the amount was 177,473 million baht, a decrease of -14.8%.

Meanwhile, supply in the 4th quarter of 2566 found that the number of units that received allocation permits for housing nationwide was 23,413 units, an increase of 7.6%.

But it is estimated that The area for construction permits issued nationwide in the 4th quarter of 2566 amounted to 9,483,777 sq m, a decrease of -5.5%.

The area of ​​low-rise construction decreased by -4.5% and condominiums decreased by -15.4%, but the supply of new residential project launches in the 4th quarter of 2566 in Bangkok and surrounding areas amounted to 31,774 units, an increase of 14.5%, which was the first quarter where there was expansion. First time

Dr. Wichai commented that in 2566, the Thai economy faces risks from the global economic slowdown, trade wars, and household debt problems at a high level of 90.9 percent of GDP.

Coupled with the rising cost of living starting in 2565, these negative factors directly affect demand by reducing people's ability to purchase housing and apply for loans.

It was found that the number of ownership transfer units nationwide was 366,825 units, a decrease of -6.6%, with a value of 1.05 trillion baht, a decrease of -1.7%. As a result, the value of newly released personal home loans amounted to 678,347 million baht, a decrease of -2.8% when compared. with the previous year

If considering the price level at which housing ownership is transferred, it is found that the overall picture of ownership transfer units (Both new and second-hand houses) decreased at all price levels not exceeding 5.00 million baht, which decreased between -1.7 and -9.8 percent.

The price levels with the most transfer of ownership were not more than 1.00 million baht and 2.01 - 3.00 million baht, but the price level of 5.00 million baht and above had an expansion at every price level between 1.9 and 11.9 percent.

Demand slowdown Especially in the middle to low income group. Affecting the adjustment of housing supply in the system that has created a trend “Entrepreneurs have shifted their focus to capture the more expensive housing market.”

It will be clearly seen in Bangkok-metropolitan area, which was found

• detached house There were 18,520 units launched, an increase of 5.7%, a value of 269,533 million baht, an increase of 10.6%.
• Semi-detached house 9,609 units, expanding 7.7%, value 56,747 million baht, increasing 11.3%

As for townhouses, which are mostly residences for middle and low income earners, new launches decreased. Although newly launched townhouses still had the number of new project launches at 20,427 units, a decrease of -22.1. % value 69,679 million baht, decreased -26.3%  

While there were 47,800 new condominium units launched, a decrease of -14.5%, the value reached 196,595 million baht, an increase of 25.9%, showing that New condominiums launched in 2566 will have higher prices than in 2565.

In this regard, the overall picture of new housing projects launched in 2566 has a total of 96,813 units, a decrease of -11.4%, but a value of 597,272 million baht, an increase of 8.7% compared to the previous year.

The fact that detached houses and twin houses has expanded in both the number of units and the value of new project launches. This is consistent with the expansion of land allocation permits.

Single-detached houses had the most allocation permits issued, with 35,058 units expanding 6.5%, and semi-detached houses 19,616 units, expanding 2.7% compared to the previous year.

while the townhouse There were 34,850 units of allocation permits, a decrease of -5.3% compared to the previous year. that decreased in the same direction as the launch of new projects

Overall, in 2566, there were 93,443 units of allocation permits issued nationwide, an increase of 1.6% compared to the previous year.

The adjustment of townhouse development permits has decreased. But detached houses and semi-detached houses increased. It has affected the overall low-rise construction permits in 2566 to decrease by -4.2%.

While condominium construction permits throughout the country which has continued to increase since the end of 2565, resulting in the overall picture for 2566 being expected to increase by 13.5% compared to the previous year.

Overall, the issuance of construction permits nationwide is expected to have an area of ​​approximately 38,729,736 sq m, a decrease of -3.0% compared to 2565 with an amount of 39,915,582 sq m.

As for the direction of the housing market in 2567, Dr. Wichai said that if the market can maintain this momentum under the overall economic situation of expanding between 2.8 - 3.2% with general inflation at 1.0 - 2.0% rate. The annual average MRR interest rate of the 6 major banks is between 6.8 – 7.0.

And there are also measures to stimulate real estate. as currently available It will create an expansion of units and ownership transfer value in 2567, amounting to approximately 373,360 units, an increase of 1.8% (Base Case) or may be adjusted in the range of -8.4% (Worst Case) to +12.0% (Best Case), which will is

• Number of units for transferring ownership of horizontal housing units Approximately 270,219 units, expanding 4.4% (Base Case) or may adjust within the range of -6.0% (Worst Case) to +14.9% (Best Case).
• Number of condominium residential ownership transfer units Approximately 103,141 units decreased by -4.6% (Base Case) or may adjust within the range of -14.1% (Worst Case) to +5.0% (Best Case).

As for the value of housing ownership transfer, the amount is approximately 1,087,499 million baht, an increase of 3.9% (Base Case) or may adjust within the range of -6.5% (Worst Case) to +14.3% (Best Case), divided into

• Amount of value of transfer of ownership of horizontal residences Approximately 786,142 million baht, an increase of 5.9% (Base Case) or may adjust within the range of -4.7% (Worst Case) to +16.5% (Best Case).
• Amount of value of condominium residential ownership transfer Approximately 301,357 million baht, decreasing by -1.0% or may adjust within the range of -10.9% (Worst Case) to +8.9% (Best Case).

By the information center It is predicted that on the demand side, it is expected that in 2567 there will be 95,897 units of allocation licenses issued throughout the country, an increase of 2.6% (Base Case) or may adjust in the range of -7.6% (Worst Case) to +12.9% (Best Case). )

The number of construction permit areas nationwide is approximately 40,080,060 sq m, an increase of 3.5% (Base Case) or may be adjusted within the framework of -6.9% (Worst Case) to +13.8% (Best Case), divided into

• horizontal Approximately 35,925,126 sq m, an increase of 1.2% (Base Case) or may be adjusted within the range of -8.9% (Worst Case) to +13.4% (Best Case).
• condominium Approximately 4,154,934 sq m, an increase of 28.3% (Base Case) or may be adjusted in the range of 15.5% (Worst Case) to +43.7% (Best Case).

As for the launch of new projects only in the Bangkok-metropolitan area It is expected that there will be 103,019 new residential units for sale, an increase of 6.4% (Base Case) or may adjust within the range of -4.2% (Worst Case) to +17.1% (Best Case).

The value of new projects for sale is 609,992 million baht, an increase of 2.1% (Base Case) or may adjust within the range of -13.2% (Worst Case) to 12.3% (Best Case).

The real estate market in 2567 is likely to recover. But it still faces risks in many ways, such as the global economic slowdown. Rising living costs and household debt problems affect the ability to purchase housing and apply for loans.

And there is still a chance of not being able to access credit because financial institutions have strict criteria for credit consideration. This may affect housing in the medium to low price level.

It may result in trading and transfer of ownership in residential units priced not more than 3.00 million baht, which may stabilize in a decreasing direction. This may cause the supply of housing in this group to have unsold units that continue to accumulate. and there may be more supply left for sale

If new supply is added more than the ability to absorb demand. Therefore, caution should be exercised when opening a project in this price group.

causing them to hope for support from the government To create strong demand in the market and create various incentives, including building confidence in purchasing housing This is due to the low level of confidence in purchasing a home due to uncertainty over whether or not it will be able to be considered for a home loan by financial institutions.