Interest – household debt Affecting confidence in buying real estate in Bangkok and surrounding areas in Q4/66 to be lower.
Interest – LTV – Household Debt shrinking purchasing power Worried about being rejected by the bank for a home loan Pressure on the consumer confidence index to buy real estate in 4Q66, remaining at 44.5 points, less than half.
On February 17, 2024, Dr. Wichai Wiratpan, Inspector of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center (REIC) , revealed that the housing confidence index in Bangkok and its surrounding areas, reflecting the demand for homes among Thais, fell to 44.5 points in the fourth quarter of 2023. This is an increase from the third quarter of 2023 (QoQ), which had an index value of 41.2, but remains below the neutral level of 50.0.
This reflects that those who want to buy a home still have low confidence or low criteria. The confidence decreased from the following factors:
- The economic situation is slowing down from various negative factors. In particular, the policy interest rate remains at the level of 2.50 percent, which has been continuously high since September 27, 2566, and may tend to remain stable at this level for a while. The Bank of Thailand has no policy to relax the LTV measure.
- Overview of the household debt situation higher than 90 percent of GDP Reflecting the ability to purchase housing is an important factor affecting confidence in the demand for housing during this period. They are concerned about applying for a loan from a financial institution that may be at risk of being rejected.
REIC studies survey respondents in various dimensions as follows:
- Most were female, 53.1 percent.
- They are between 25-34 years old, or are the most people from Gen Y and Gen Z at 46.1 percent.
- Be a person with a bachelor's degree level of education or equivalent, accounting for 73.6 percent
Most of those wanting to buy housing, 59.7 percent, are private sector employees. And the majority, 34.6 percent, have an average monthly income in the range of 15,001 - 30,000 baht.
The overall demographic characteristics were similar to the previous quarter in terms of gender, age range, education level, occupation, and average monthly income.
Regarding the purpose of purchasing a new residence, it was found that the majority of those wishing to purchase a residence, 35.8 percent, wanted to have their own residence. This increased from the previous quarter where demand was 28.1 percent, followed by purchases for property at 15.2 percent, decreasing from the previous quarter at 17.8 percent.
The two objectives have a combined proportion of 51.0 percent, showing that Buyers want to buy a home to create wealth and stability in their lives.
And if compared to the third quarter of 3, it was found that the factor that people who want to buy a home choose to consider more is the need for convenience in traveling. and want to buy for investment/speculation/rental The proportion increased from 2566 percent to 11.0 percent and from 12.6 percent to 10.3 percent, respectively.
When considering the nature of demand for housing purchases, it was found that
1. Type side
The majority wanted to buy a new or second-hand home, 51.6 percent, down from 63.5 percent in the previous quarter. But those who wanted to buy only new homes were 41.5 percent, an increase from 31.1 percent in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, those wanting to buy second-hand homes were 6.9 percent, an increase from 5.4 percent compared to the previous quarter. It shows that people who want to buy a home are more interested in new homes.
2. Price range of housing
Most want to buy housing in the price range of 2.01 - 3.00 million baht.
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- First at 29.7 percent
- 2nd place is price level 3.01 - 5.00 million baht, 26.1 percent and
- Number 3 is the price level of 1.51 - 2.00 million baht, 15.5 percent.
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The price range of 2.01-5.00 million baht has a combined proportion of 55.8 percent.
It is noted that housing in the price range of 3.01 - 5.00 million baht was ranked 3rd in the previous quarter and the price range of 1.51 - 2.00 million baht was ranked 2nd in the previous quarter.
While the group of housing in the price level of more than 5.01 - 10.00 million baht has demand accounting for 18.3 percent and it was found that the group wants to buy housing in the price level of 10.00 million baht and above. There is only 1.4 percent.
3. Type of residence
Most want to buy a detached house, 41.8 percent, and want to buy in the price range of 3.01 - 5.00 million baht the most. Followed by condominiums at 34.1 percent, with the greatest desire to buy in the price range of 2.01 - 3.00 million baht.
For townhouses, there is a purchase demand of 16.5 percent and most want to buy in the price range of 2.01 - 3.00 million baht the most. For semi-detached houses, there is a purchase demand of 7.6 percent and most want to buy in the price range of 5.01 - 7.50 million baht. the most
It is noted that those who want to buy a semi-detached house are more interested in the high price level than other types because the location they want to buy is mostly in Bangkok, where land prices are higher than other provinces.
In the third quarter of 3, demand for single-family homes accounted for 2566 percent, while demand for condominiums, townhouses, semi-detached houses accounted for 47.3, 36.5, and 13.5 percent, respectively.
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