UBS raises gold price target to $3,200/oz for next 4 quarters

UBS raises gold price target to $3,200/oz for next 4 quarters amid escalating global trade war

On March 17, 2025, at 2:13 PM, Bloomberg News reported that UBS Group raised its forecast for gold prices due to the increased likelihood of a prolonged global trade war. Analysts expect this situation will continue to drive investors to buy this highly safe-haven asset.

Analysts Wayne Gordon and Giovanni Staunovo said gold bullion prices are likely to trade at $3,200 per ounce over the next four quarters, an upward revision from the bank's earlier forecast of $3,000. They noted that escalating trade conflicts underscore the precious metal's role as a store of value during times of uncertainty.

UBS Group points to U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to impose both retaliatory and additional sector-specific tariffs on April 2, 2568, as an impending risk event that could fuel continued demand for safe-haven assets across markets. Gold, which broke through the key psychological resistance level of $3,000 per ounce for the first time on March 14, 68, would also benefit from the worsening U.S. economic outlook, with traders currently pricing in further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts amid concerns about a recession.

Analysts stated, “In other words, we are seeing a shift from a ‘Trump put’ to a ‘Fed put’… We remain confident that a balanced portfolio allocation with approximately 5% of the US dollars allocated to gold is optimal from a long-term diversification perspective.”

UBS joins several other banks that have revised their gold price targets upwards in recent weeks. Last week, Macquarie Group projected prices to reach $3,500 per ounce in the second quarter, while BNP Paribas SA raised its average price forecast to above $3,000.

UBS analysts say that inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds are beginning to take shape. The continued demand for these investment instruments remains a key factor driving prices further.

Analysts also said that strong central bank demand will continue to serve as a key structural support, pointing to signs that purchases may be nearing levels of recent years again, which were around 1,000 metric tons per year.

Reference: bloomberg.com

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