ThaiBMA confirms that real estate bonds are strong, not affected by earthquakes, sees bond market in 68 as stable despite debt payment postponement
ThaiBMA confirms that the bond market in the real estate sector has not been severely affected by the earthquake. The overall bond market in 68 is still stable, although some have postponed payments of more than 8,841 million baht. Investors are advised to closely monitor the situation.
Ms. Ariya Tirana Prakit, Deputy Managing Director of the Thai Bond Market Association (ThaiBMA) , revealed that the earthquake on March 28, 2568, did not significantly impact the real estate bond market. New bond issuances and rollovers, particularly in well-known real estate companies with strong building structures, positively affected their bond offerings. Even lower-rated real estate companies benefited from the earthquake, boosting confidence in their businesses.
In this regard, the overall picture of bonds in 2568, which will mature in the 9-month period, is 4 billion baht per quarter on average. From initial information, it is expected that there will be no problems and that Roll Over will continue.
While the likelihood of bond defaults this year is low compared to the much higher number of bond payment deferrals, the financial market is preparing to handle bonds maturing or deferred in Q1 2025, totaling over 10 billion baht, from various issuers.
According to the latest information, there are bonds maturing totaling 1,605 million baht from 3 issuers, namely:
- WASTECH EXPONENTIAL CO., LTD. (WTX) valued at 408 million baht
- CLOVER POWER PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (CV) value 452 million baht
- CHO Thavee Public Company Limited (CHO) worth 745 million baht
Meanwhile, there are deferred bond payments totaling 8,841 million baht from 9 issuers, such as:
- Prime Road Power Public Company Limited (PRIME) worth 2,050 million baht
- THAI POLYCONS PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (TPOLY) valued at 1,560 million baht
- Eastern Power Group Public Company Limited (EP) worth 1,030 million baht
Compared to the previous year, the value of bonds maturing decreased from 3,172 million baht in 2567, while the value of bonds deferred decreased from 17,983 million baht in 2567 to 12,443 million baht in 2025. Investors should closely monitor the situation, as debt deferral may affect the liquidity of bond-issuing companies and could impact the overall bond market in early 2568.
Dr. Somjin Kraipaisarn, Managing Director of the Thai Bond Market Association (TheBMA), revealed that the outstanding value of the Thai bond market at the end of the first quarter of 2015 was 17.5 trillion baht, expanding by 2.2% from 2024, mainly due to the increase in the outstanding value of government-issued bonds.
In terms of the issuance of long-term private debt instruments (long-term bonds), the value was 203,488 million baht, a decrease of 1.78% when compared to the same period last year. The investment grade bonds were issued in excess of their maturity value, while the high-yield bonds were issued in excess of their maturity value. The top three industries with the highest issuance value were energy, real estate, and financial, respectively.
In terms of the survey on policy interest rate forecasts for the rest of 2568, most market participants expect the MPC to cut the policy interest rate from mid-year onwards by about 1-2 times, totaling 0.25-0.50%, down to 1.50-1.75% from the current 2.00%.
For the Thai bond yield forecast, respondents expect Thai 5-year and 10-year bond yields to decrease by an average of 2568-4pbs. from the end of the first quarter of 7, mainly due to the direction of Thailand's policy interest rate, Thailand's economic expansion, and the direction of interest rates in leading economies.
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