How much does the “US tax” affect Thailand’s GDP?
In the case where the United States announced an increase in reciprocal tariffs around the world, including Thailand, which was charged at 36%, which will have a direct impact on Thailand's export sector, continuing to the manufacturing sector, and foreign investment declining, while at the end of March 2568, Thailand was also affected by the earthquake. How do economic agencies assess Thailand's GDP?
TISCO Economic Analysis and Strategy Center (TISCO ESU)
TISCO Economic Analysis and Strategy Center (TISCO ESU) assessmentThe impact on the Thai economy from the retaliatory tariff rate announced by the US on Thailand at 36% TISCO ESU at around 1.35 points from the current forecast that the Thai economy will expand by 2.8% will be reduced to only 1.45%, not including the effects of measures that the government must enforce to benefit the negotiations, such as 1. Reducing trade barriers (Non-tariff Barrier) and liberalizing US agricultural products more 2. Increasing the import quota of US products by many countries, which may result in Thai products that are similar to the US, especially agricultural products, being imported less from foreign markets, etc.
CIMB Thai Bank Research Center
Research Office, CIMB Thai Bank The GDP forecast for 2568 has been revised down from 2.7% to 1.8% due to the US tax measures, while if the tax is raised, the Thai economy may enter a technical recession in Q3-Q4 2568, with growth of only 1.4%. However, if the US economy enters a recession, even a small one, combined with global volatility, the Thai economy may slow down more than expected, with Thai GDP at 0.5%.
Kasikorn Research Center
Kasikorn Research Center It is estimated that the US tariff measures will cause exports in 2568 to shrink by -0.5% from the original estimate of 2.5%, while Thai GDP will be affected by about 1%, resulting in a new estimate of 1.4%, lower than the original estimate of 2.4%. However, the Thai economy will not enter a recession.
Center for Economic and Business Research Siam Commercial Bank (SCB EIC)
Economic and Business Research Center, Siam Commercial Bank (SCB EIC) It is estimated that the Thai economy in 2568 will grow slower to 1.5% from the previous estimate of 2.4% due to both the trade war and the earthquake. It is also estimated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to reduce the policy interest rate another 3 times to 1.25% by the end of 2025 from the original 1.50% to take care of the economy that has slowed down a lot under high uncertainty.
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