This morning, the baht strengthened, opening at 33.27 baht/dollar.

The baht opened this morning at 33.27 baht per dollar, strengthening from last week's closing level of 33.44 baht per dollar.

21 April 2568 Mr. Poon Panichphibun, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited revealed that The baht opened this morning at 33.27 baht per dollar, strengthening from last week's closing level of 33.44 baht per dollar.

Since last Friday night, the baht (USDTHB) has gradually strengthened again (fluctuating within the range of 33.24-33.46 baht per dollar), even though the baht fluctuated within the Sideways range on Friday due to the holidays for the European and US financial markets due to the Good Friday holiday.

However, the baht gradually strengthened on Monday morning as uncertainty over the US government's trade policy continued to pressure market players' confidence in US assets, causing the dollar to gradually weaken, in line with market players gradually increasing their Short USD position (looking at a weaker dollar).

In addition, the price of gold has gradually adjusted upwards, approaching the previous high, supporting the appreciation of the baht (the correlation between the baht and the price of gold in the past month is still as high as 1%).

Last week, the baht strengthened to its strongest level in more than half a year, following a new high in gold prices and foreign investors buying Thai bonds. The dollar continued to weaken.

This week, we think it's worth keeping an eye on the manufacturing and service sector PMI reports from major economies, and waiting for the earnings reports of listed companies.

สำหรับ Trend of the baht value We assess that the baht's appreciation momentum may slow down, with the baht facing downward pressure from dividend payment flows to foreign investors.

However, we still need to closely monitor the direction of the Chinese yuan and the price of gold. As for foreign investor fund flows, they are still volatile, which will depend on the atmosphere in the financial market. We also have to wait and see the performance reports of Thai listed companies.

In terms of the dollar, we believe that the dollar may rebound somewhat if the US economic data reports are better than expected. In addition, the earnings reports of listed companies, especially large tech stocks, which are bright, may help support the dollar's rebound.

We maintain the advice that Market players should choose to use a wider range of exchange rate risk hedging tools. Amid the fluctuation of the baht Including other currencies which was reasonably higher than in the past Market players may choose to use additional tools such as Options or Local Currency along with closing risk through forward contracts.

Looking at the baht value this week at the level of 33.00-33.65 baht/dollar.

The baht's range in the next 24 hours is expected to be at 33.15-33.35 baht/dollar.

Global economic perspective

US side

Market players will be eyeing the April S&P Manufacturing & Services PMIs and the Fed Beige Book for a gauge of the US economic outlook amid uncertainty over the Trump administration's trade policies.

At the same time, market players will be waiting for the statements of Fed officials. In addition, market players will be waiting for the earnings reports of listed companies, especially the earnings reports of big tech stocks such as Tesla and Alphabet, which will affect the atmosphere in the financial market.

European side

Market players will be looking ahead to the monetary policy direction of both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) through key economic data releases such as the Eurozone and UK Manufacturing and Services PMI, UK Retail Sales and the German IFO Business Climate.

Also, keep an eye on the statements from ECB and BOE officials. Recently, market players estimate that the ECB may continue to cut interest rates 2-3 more times, while the BOE has a chance to continue to cut interest rates 3-4 more times this year.

Asian side

Market players will be awaiting the release of Japan's manufacturing and services PMIs for April, as well as Tokyo's CPI inflation rate, to gauge the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy outlook.

The latest uncertainty over the US trade protectionist policy has led market players to expect the BOJ to have around a 41% chance of raising interest rates once this year. In terms of monetary policy, we expect Bank Indonesia (BI) to keep its policy rate at 1% to stabilize the rupiah (IDR) and wait to assess the impact on the Indonesian economy from the US trade policy, which is still highly uncertain.

Thai side

Market players will be waiting for the March Exports & Imports report to assess the extent to which Thai exports are beginning to be affected by US trade protectionist policies. Over the past several months, exports have accelerated and expanded by more than +10% y/y following the acceleration of imports due to concerns about US trade protectionist policies.

In addition to the data reports, market players will be waiting for the earnings reports of listed companies. For the baht trend, we estimate that the baht's appreciation is likely to slow down somewhat, causing the baht to fluctuate in a sideways range. In the week of April 21-25, the baht may face depreciation pressure from the flow of dividend payments to foreign investors, which may be as high as 1 billion baht (estimated from listed companies).

In this regard, it is important to keep a close eye on the direction of gold prices (gold prices have moved in line with the baht by about 82% over the past month) as gold prices have begun to face considerable profit-taking. If gold prices decline and enter a consolidation period, this could put pressure on the baht to weaken.

Technically, the baht will return to the depreciation trend again if it can break through the 34.00 baht per dollar zone, when assessed by the Trend-Following strategy. The baht's support level is still in the range of 33.00-33.10 baht per dollar, while the resistance zone will be around 33.50 baht per dollar (the next resistance is 33.85 baht per dollar).

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