Finance Minister admits Thai GDP in 68 may grow below target of 3%, not yet considering additional 5 billion baht loan

The Permanent Secretary of the Treasury admits that Thailand's GDP in 68 may grow lower than the target of 3% due to the US-China conflict affecting world trade. As for the idea of ​​borrowing 5 billion to deal with US taxes, it is just a model. Waiting to evaluate the project before actually borrowing. If the budget is sufficient, there may be no need to borrow. Hoping that monetary policy will help take care of the economy along with fiscal policy.

29 April 2568 Mr. Lawan Saengsanit, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance Revealed about the case where the World Bank has adjusted down the estimate of Thailand's GDP in 2568 to 1.6%, that the conflict between large countries like the United States and China will affect world trade, which has the possibility that Thailand's GDP in 2568 will expand less than 3%.

“From the global trade conflict, it is certain that a small country like ours will be affected. Therefore, the Thai GDP in 2568, which we have set as a target of 3% or more than 3%, may be difficult. But what we will do next is how to make it lower than 3% as little as possible. But today, it is too early to say how much the Thai GDP will decrease because we still do not know what form the tax policy will conclude and how successful the negotiations of the Thai team will be. The announcement of the GDP adjustment soon, I think, will not include this result because it is too early to assess.”

Mr. Laworn revealed that for negotiations with the United States, what the United States wants to negotiate is not just about the trade deficit and economic issues, but also about security or other issues for consideration, some of which may be issues of agencies other than the Ministry of Finance. However, Mr. Pichai Chunhavajira, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, as the team leader, must also do more homework.

“I understand that the appointment on April 23rd was real and many things have been prepared. The people we will meet have confirmed it, but there are many dimensions that have changed. Therefore, we have to do more homework. However, the Thai team is currently 100% ready to negotiate with the US if the issue does not change anything. Whenever you are ready, go because going when you are ready is the best.”

However, it is seen that the crisis is also an opportunity for Thailand to start adjusting its economic structure, such as attracting more foreign investment, including using this opportunity to adjust the structure of Thailand's agricultural sector for the better.

The idea of ​​borrowing 500,000 billion baht to deal with US tax measures Mr Laworn said the figure of 500,000 billion baht is just a model. However, the amount of the loan must wait for the impact assessment and the project to be implemented first.

“The 500,000 billion baht is just a doll. If we borrow this amount, it will affect the public debt by 3%. But in reality, we have to look at what we will do first, such as using the money to restructure, for investment. Then we have to see how much money those projects cost. Then we have to see how much money we have now. Then we can borrow the missing amount. If we have enough money, we may not have to borrow at all.”

In the case where the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is concerned about increasing debt Mr Laworn said that being in debt is not scary if you know why you are borrowing and can pay off the principal and interest on time.

Should Thailand's policy interest rate help? Mr. Laworn said that the situation that has occurred requires many measures to help reduce the impact on GDP, which he believes that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) must consider new information that has occurred at present.

“Monetary policy also affects the economy. Therefore, we must help each other. I think the MPC will consider all dimensions because right now, world trade will decrease, affecting exporters. Small people will be tired. Therefore, how should monetary policy act to alleviate this impact, along with fiscal policy? Many countries have started using monetary policy in a relaxed direction. The MPC will probably have complete information to consider the most appropriate interest rate.”

Mr. Laworn also revealed the case in which the Bank of Thailand (BOT) submitted a list of those who passed the criteria for branchless commercial banks (Virtual Bank) for the Ministry of Finance to consider, that the matter is currently still with the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).

“I understand that the number of people who pass the criteria depends on the consideration of the Bank of Thailand through the Financial Institutions Policy Committee, not the Treasury Department. They must have considered it carefully. As for the number, we don’t know yet.”

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