Bitcoin falls below $105,000, analysts see it as an accumulation period

Bitcoin's price has fallen below $105,000, a drop of more than 16% from its all-time high of $126,198 on October 7th. Bitwise sees the market amid this fear as a good time to buy Bitcoin.

October 17, 2568 - Bitcoin price trades at $105,000, hitting a 24-hour low of $104,700 and a high of $111,990 after hitting an all-time high of $126,198 on October 7, representing a price drop of more than 16%, according to Coinmarketcap.

Bitcoin price in the afternoon of October 17, 2568. Image from TradingView.

The rapid decline in Bitcoin's price has significantly reduced investor interest, with Google searches for "Bitcoin" dropping to multi-month lows.

A Cointelegraph report indicates that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to a “Fear” level of 24 points, its lowest level in a year, and a rapid decline from the “Greed” level of 71 points the previous week. This drop reflects the same atmosphere of anxiety experienced in April, when Bitcoin temporarily dropped below $74,000, and resembles the market fatigue cycles of 2018 and 2022.

Despite the sharp drop in sentiment, Bitwise analysts believe the current situation is more suitable for "accumulating" rather than "drawbacking."

Bitwise's analysis team, led by director and head of research André Dragosch, along with senior researcher Max Shannon and research analyst Ayush Tripathi, stated that this price correction was primarily caused by external factors, especially the renewed trade tensions between the United States and China, resulting in a global sell-off of risky assets.

Bitwise's "Weekly Crypto Market Compass" report indicates that the correction was exacerbated by the largest-ever liquidation in the futures market, with the open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts plummeting by nearly $11,000 billion, the sharpest drop in history.

Dragosch added that this forced liquidation event has largely removed selling pressure in the market, creating conditions for a contrarian buying window similar to the expiration of the popular yen carry trade in August 2024. Historically, such extreme levels have often provided the start of buying opportunities before the market enters its seasonal strength in Q4.

While on-chain data supports Bitwise's view, a Glassnode report indicates that retail investors holding between 1 and 1,000 BTC have been increasing their accumulation in recent days, offsetting reduced buying pressure from larger holders. This behavior reflects renewed confidence among retail and mid-level investors, despite continued high market volatility.

However, other signals reflect a more complex picture. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that since Thursday, miners have transferred approximately 51,000 BTC, worth over $5.7 billion, into the market—the largest inflow since July. This type of movement is often a signal of future selling pressure, as miners typically move coins into the market to sell or hedge against risk.

The data also indicates that long-term holders may have started to take profits, with a total of 265,715 BTC sold over the past 30 days, the largest monthly selling since January 2025.

However, the Bitcoin price's continued hold above $110,000 indicates that institutional and ETF demand is still absorbing excess supply, when combined with selling pressure from miners and buying pressure from retail and institutional investors.

Bitwise analysts believe the Bitcoin market is transitioning from a capitulation phase to a reaccumulation phase, a positive sign of the start of a bull run in the upcoming Q4.

References: cointelegraph.com , coinmarketcap.com

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