Thai stocks have fallen behind the global market for the past 10 months, falling 6%. Analysts are hoping for a recovery, with a strong dividend yield of 4.3%.

Thai stocks have fallen behind global markets for the past 10 months, falling 6%, while the MSCI World Index has risen 19%. Tisco Securities expects a recovery in the next 3-6 months, benefiting from accommodative monetary policy and the upcoming 69 national election. The company highlights a 4.3% dividend yield.

On November 3, 2568, Mr. Apichart Poonbanchok, Senior Director of Strategic Analysis at TISCO Securities, revealed that global stocks have performed exceptionally well this year. In the first 10 months, the MSCI World Index rose by over +19%, and several major stock markets, including the US, the European Union, and Japan, reached new all-time highs. Furthermore, regional stock markets (MSCI Asia ex. JP) outperformed global stocks by as much as +31%. In contrast, the Thai stock market returned a negative -6%. TISCO Securities maintains its view that the dovish monetary policies of both the US and Thailand should support a gradual recovery in the SET Index, which has lagged significantly behind global markets, over the next 3-6 months.

Besides significantly lagging behind international stocks this year, Thai stocks are also undervalued compared to foreign stocks. Their forward P/E ratios and price-to-book value (PBV) for next year are 12.8x and 1.1x, respectively, compared to the Asian average of 13.3x and 1.7x, respectively. Furthermore, the Thai stock market's dividend yield of 4.3% is relatively high compared to the average dividend yield of 2.6% for international stocks and is higher than the current 10-year US Treasury yield of approximately 4%. This makes Thai stocks likely to attract more investment inflows, especially as the annual dividend payout season approaches in a few months.

Mr. Apichart stated that the months of November and December each year are the peak season for tax-deductible funds to receive tax benefits before the end of the year. TISCO Securities estimates that approximately 10-1.5 billion baht will flow into various tax-deductible funds, including RMFs and TESGs, this year. Looking ahead to early next year, TISCO Securities is also anticipating the impact of the "pre-election rally." Based on a study of past Thai elections since the establishment of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, the Thai stock market typically rises in the three months leading up to an election, generating an average positive return of approximately +4.4% and an average confidence level of nearly 70%. Furthermore, the impact of the election may continue for the two weeks following the election, often referred to as the "honeymoon period," with an average positive return of approximately +2.3% and an average confidence level as high as 80%.

For November investments, TISCO Securities recommends stocks with an ESG rating of A or higher and strong profit momentum in the second half of the year. These are expected to be investment targets for tax-deductible funds at the end of the year, including ADVANC, BBL, CPAXT, KCE, OR, and SYNEX, as well as stocks expected to be included in the SET50 Index (SAWAD). Therefore, the top stocks recommended by TISCO Securities for November are ADVANC, BBL, CPAXT, KCE, OR, SAWAD, and SYNEX. Key support levels for this month are at 1,300 points, with subsequent support levels at 1,280 and 1250-1,260 points. Key resistance levels are at 1,345 and 1,360-1,370 points, respectively.

For alternative investment options in foreign stocks through DRs this November, we recommend GOLD19 and TRIPCOM80. Although the gold price reached a high of US$4,380 per ounce before declining, TISCO Securities remains positive on gold, as global asset volatility continues. TISCO Securities expects gold to reach US$5,000 per ounce next year.

Meanwhile, November is a time of earnings announcements for Chinese stocks, with TRIPCOM80 (9961 HK) expected to report 14% YoY profit growth driven by increased bookings and the possibility of the Chinese government further stimulating domestic purchasing power to mitigate the impact of the trade war.

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