The GCC indicates that the Thai carbon credit market is moving from a "voluntary" sector to a "mandatory" market by 2026, driven by regulatory requirements and trade pressures towards the Net Zero 2050 target. The market value is expected to surge from the current 64 million baht to 3 billion baht per year, a growth of over 50 times, with prices soaring 30-40 times in the first three years. The company is expanding its carbon credit consulting, auditing, and brokerage services.
4 November 2568 – Trithep Palakawong Na Ayudhya, Chief Executive Officer of Global Carbon Corporation Co., Ltd. or GCC Reveal with "Bank Finance" that “Carbon credits” In Thailand today, it is still a market “Voluntary sector” But it is about to change to “Forced market” By 2026, as a result of Thailand's acceleration of its Net Zero target to 2050 and the European Union's Cross-Border Carbon Tax (CBAM) measures, the carbon credit market value is expected to grow from 64 million baht to 3 billion baht per year, with prices expected to surge 30-40 times in the first three years of enforcement.
GCC I think that “Greenhouse gases” Which is the root cause of the climate change problem. “Key trends” and is a business opportunity by providing comprehensive services for greenhouse gas management in 6 main groups:
- Consulting and evaluation surveys: Provide consultation and conduct survey and evaluation Greenhouse gas emissions Carbon Footprint for Organization – CFO in all 3 scopes
- Certification: Providing inspection and certification services for greenhouse gas emissions according to standards
- Platform/Program: Develop tools and programs to help calculate and manage greenhouse gas data.
- Carbon Credit Project Consultant: Provide development consulting Greenhouse gas reduction project To get carbon credit Which will be very important in the future.
- Carbon Credit Brokers: Act as a middleman in buying, selling and negotiating carbon credits so that organizations can use them. Offset Greenhouse gas emissions
- Training: establish GCC Academy and cooperate with partners to organize training to create personnel with knowledge and understanding of greenhouse gas management
"Currently, half of listed companies have completed all three greenhouse gas surveys, and over 20% have been audited and certified. Once organizations know their exact emissions, they can choose appropriate reduction strategies, whether simple or serious, through carbon credits."
Decoding: “Footprint” is a liability, “Credit” is the new tradable asset
Understanding carbon markets requires distinguishing between two key terms:
- Carbon Footprint: คือ Total amount of greenhouse gases Emitted from various activities of organizations, products or even individuals, which have an impact on the environment.
- Carbon Credit: คือ The right to emit 1 tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) of greenhouse gases. Created from the operation Greenhouse gas reduction project Different types of carbon credits will be upgraded to: "asset" It can be traded, but has a complex creation process and must be certified by Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (GMO)
Clearing Gap: Voluntary Market Still Using Only 0.07% Credit, Accelerating Brokers' Role in Stimulating Demand/Supply
Currently, carbon credits in Thailand are still classified as activities. “Voluntary sector” Under the supervision of the TGO, those who undertake greenhouse gas reduction and apply for carbon credit registration must be the investors and bear all costs themselves.
Carbon Credit Offsetting
Carbon credit buyers will use it to: Offset The amount of carbon footprint you emit can be measured at several levels:
- 1. Organization/Business Level: Offset the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions emitted by the organization.
- 2 specific activity levels: Offset emissions in short-term activities such as organizing events.
- 3 product levels: Neutralize the carbon footprint of the product.
- 4 personal levels: Especially for travel
Pain Point The key to today's market is “The buyer doesn’t know where to buy.” “Supply is not enough.” This results in the actual offsetting rate being very low.
“For this reason, Middleman or broker Therefore, it plays an important role in Stimulate demand From buyers and stimulation Supply From the developer of the carbon reduction project, which the NBTC supports to register as a broker.”
In addition, the establishment Carbon Exchange The Stock Exchange of Thailand is another mechanism that is trying to push forward in Thailand, but because the supply of carbon credits has not yet been fully stimulated, Carbon credit prices are still unstable
Thailand has high greenhouse gas emissions. 388 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) However, since 2016, only approximately 41 million tCO2e of TGO-certified carbon credits have been traded, and only approximately 41 million tCO2e have been used to offset the actual carbon footprint per year. 200,000 tCO2e Think only 0.07 % of the total emission volume due to There is no law yet.
Ignite the "Forced Market": Expected value to jump 50 times with the launch of ETS-Carbon Tax in 69
Mr. Trithep emphasized that the Thai carbon credit market is “Waiting for the day of the explosion” It is anticipated that when climate change legislation is enacted, requiring all legal entities to assess and report, Carbon Footprint And may be stored carbon tax Or using the system Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) The market will change completely.
Under the ETS, a legal entity is set a cap on emissions. If it exceeds these limits, it must either pay a tax, purchase the remaining emissions from others, or purchase carbon credits to offset them, which:
- Market value: It will increase from the current trading value of 64 million baht per year to 3,000 billion baht per year
- Expected time period: It should start in the period Q1 to Q2 2569
- Carbon credit price: It is expected to increase significantly, based on international prices, currently in Europe at 3,000 baht/tCO2e, while in Thailand the average is only 150 baht/tCO2e. It is expected that prices in Thailand will increase. 30-40 times In the first three years of full market opening
Net Zero 2050 Accelerates: Key Government Policies to Avoid CBAM and Trade Protectionism
A key factor that accelerated the pace of legislation was the government's announcement of a change in its target. NetZero From the original year 2065 It's been a year 2050 Which is 15 years faster than before, to be in line with the world community and avoid being collected. Cross-border Carbon Tax (CBAM) Europe has begun requiring the reporting of carbon footprint data on some products.
“If we don’t start early, we will be at a disadvantage not just in Europe or China, but in every economic zone, whether it’s North America, South America or the Middle East, from being Trade barriers Or set up a tariff wall”
Since the GDP of a country is mainly derived from the private sector, serious greenhouse gas reduction requires the actions of private sector It is the main thing that must be there. Compulsory law It is a driving force.
Business Opportunity: Alternative Energy and Sustainable Agriculture Become Popular Carbon Credits, Speculation Awaiting Climate Change Act
The types of greenhouse gas reduction projects that are gaining interest and in high demand in the current market include:
- Alternative energy: Such as solar cell projects, energy from dams
- Waste Management Project: Such as converting waste into energy
- Long-term sustainable projects: เช่น Sustainable agriculture Reforestation Which is in demand in the market because it gives good returns and is sustainable.
Most buyers still use carbon credits. Neutralize your carbon footprint Their own because they foresee the risks that will arise after the law is enforced, both at the organizational level and at the product level.
In addition, some are purchased and kept for speculate At the time when the price will increase significantly when Climate Change Act It is enforced under Section 6, which requires all legal entities to survey and report their greenhouse gas emissions, so that the government can use the information to plan tax collection through the ETS system.
Huge Demand Gap: 99% of Corporates Still Not Enrolled in CFO Assessment System, Under Pressure from CBAM-Supply Chain
Data from the NBTC points to a large gap in the market:
- Number of juristic persons: Currently, Thailand has approximately registered and operating legal entities. More than 800,000 cases
- Certified Person: But there are only about More than 3,000 companies Only those who have received corporate greenhouse gas assessment certification and only More than 2,500 companies For product carbon footprint
This figure shows that there are still more than 99% of legal entities that have not yet entered into a greenhouse gas assessment and management system, which will be Demand Large size, when there is a law that compels both from factors CBAM Directly affecting exporters and being Scope 3 (Supply Chain) of large exporting companies that are forced to report the carbon footprint of their trading partners throughout their supply chains.
The Thai carbon credit market is entering a major turning point from a market “Voluntary sector” to “Forced market” Under government oversight, accelerated Net Zero targets, and international trade measures, these are accelerating growth. Early-entry operators will gain price advantages and be better prepared for upcoming regulations.
