The value of the baht opened this morning at 32.46 baht/dollar.

The baht opened this morning at 32.46 baht per dollar, slightly weaker than the previous week's close of 32.43 baht per dollar.

17 Nov. 2568 Mr. Poon Panichphibun, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank revealed that The baht opened this morning at 32.46 baht per dollar, slightly weaker than the previous week's close of 32.43 baht per dollar.

Since Friday night of the previous week, the Thai baht (USDTHB) has weakened somewhat, approaching the resistance level of 32.50 baht per dollar, trading sideways upwards (swinging within a range of 32.36-32.48 baht per dollar). This follows the gradual strengthening of the dollar, amid market players' gradual downward adjustments to expectations of a Fed rate cut, particularly at the FOMC meeting this December.

However, the dollar fluctuated significantly, following the Japanese yen (JPY), which quickly strengthened from 154.70 yen per dollar to 153.60 yen per dollar, following a risk-off atmosphere in the US stock market. The yen gradually weakened, returning to the 154.70 yen per dollar zone, following the gradual risk-taking of US stock market players, who awaited the earnings report of major tech stocks like Nvidia, due on Wednesday, November 19th.

Furthermore, the baht is facing additional pressure following the decline in the price of gold (XAUUSD), prompting market players to gradually buy gold during the dip. However, market players' selling pressure on the dollar has continued to slow the baht's depreciation, preventing it from breaking through the resistance zone significantly.

Last week, despite the dollar weakening somewhat, the baht weakened slightly, following selling pressure on Thai stocks by foreign investors and a decline in gold prices.

This week, we believe it's time to await US labor market data, manufacturing and service sector PMIs for major economies, and Thailand's Q3 economic growth rate, as well as statements from Fed officials.

สำหรับ Baht trend We assess that the Thai baht (USDTHB) is likely to be more volatile and face two-way risk (ready to move in both directions), similar to the dollar, depending on changes in market players' views on the Fed's interest rate policy outlook. We must await key US economic data releases that will be released after the US government shutdown ends.

However, the baht may weaken and test the resistance level as the depreciation momentum gains strength. However, the baht's depreciation may be gradual amid dollar selling by market participants. Judging by holding positions and signals from 1-month risk-reversals in the options market, it suggests that market participants are gradually reducing their negative outlook for the baht (or anticipating a weakening baht). This could lead to selling USDTHB on a rally (or buying THB on a dip), which could limit the baht's depreciation.

However, we still believe the Fed will be able to gradually cut interest rates from the end of this year to the first half of next year, following clearer signals of a slowdown in employment. This should weaken the dollar somewhat and support a gradual appreciation of the baht, which will further benefit from the already high tourism season at the end of the year (a seasonality factor). Keep an eye on gold price movements and foreign investor fund flows, which could significantly impact the baht.

And if we refer to the Trend-Following strategy, we believe that the baht will return to a weakening trend once it breaks through the resistance zone of 32.65 baht per dollar (or rises significantly above the 30-week moving average).

Regarding the dollar, we believe it faces high volatility and two-way risk following a shift in outlook on the Fed's interest rate outlook following key US economic data releases and statements from Fed officials. However, we should keep an eye on the direction of the British pound and the Japanese yen, which will fluctuate in response to the BOE and BOJ's monetary policy outlook.

Looking at the baht value this week at the level of 32.10-32.75 baht/dollar.

The baht's range in the next 24 hours is expected to be at 32.35-32.60 baht/dollar.

Global economic perspective

US side

As the Government Shutdown has ended, some important US economic data reports may begin to be released. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently stated that it will release US labor market data for September, including non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, on November 20 at 8:30 p.m. (Thailand time).

In addition, it may be possible to gradually release the number of Jobless Claims again. In addition, market players will be waiting to follow other important economic data releases such as the November S&P Manufacturing & Services PMIs, weekly private sector payrolls by ADP, and economic indicators from various Fed branches.

In addition to the economic data releases, market players will be awaiting the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes and statements from Fed officials to assess the direction of the Fed's monetary policy.

Most recently, market players have gradually adjusted their expectations for the Fed's rate cuts, with the Fed now seeing a 43% chance of further rate cuts at its December meeting and a 76% chance of three more rate cuts in 2026.

European side

Market players will be awaiting the monetary policy outlook of both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) through statements from ECB and BOE officials.

Including reports of important economic data such as the PMI index for the manufacturing and service sectors in November from the Eurozone and the UK.

In addition, market players will be awaiting the UK's October CPI and Retail Sales reports, which could significantly impact market players' views on the BOE's policy rate hike outlook, particularly the CPI inflation data.

Following the latest report on the UK labour market, which showed signs of a further slowdown, market players are now estimating an 80% chance that the BOE will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, with a further two rate cuts expected in 2026.

Asian side

Market players will be awaiting key Japanese economic data releases, including November's manufacturing and services PMI, October's CPI inflation rate, and Q3 economic growth, to assess the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy outlook.

Most recently, market players see the BOJ as having only a 32% chance of a 25bps rate hike at its December meeting, but there is still a possibility of one or two gradual rate hikes in 2026.

As for Bank Indonesia (BI), most analysts estimate that BI may keep the interest rate at 4.75% after the rupiah (IDR) has gradually weakened significantly, causing BI to be concerned about the stability of the currency and choose to keep the interest rate steady for now.

Thai side

Market players will be eagerly awaiting the release of the Thai economic growth report for Q3, which analysts estimate will see growth of +1.6% year-on-year, a marked slowdown from Q2's +2.8% expansion.

Meanwhile, market players will be eagerly awaiting the release of international trade figures, including both exports and imports, for October, to assess the economic outlook for the fourth quarter of this year.

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