JPMorgan revised its forecast, seeing a high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% at its December meeting and then again in January 2569.
On November 27, 2025, at 4:11 AM, Bloomberg News reported that economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in December 2025, a reversal from the bank's previous view that predicted a rate cut would be delayed until January.
A team of analysts led by Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief US economist, stated that recent interviews with several Fed officials, particularly New York Fed president John Williams, are key factors that necessitate a reassessment of the view that interest rate cuts may occur sooner than expected.
JPMorgan had previously expected the Fed to hold rates steady following the release of the September jobs report, which was delayed last week.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), chaired by Chairman Jerome Powell, will meet in Washington on December 9–10. JPMorgan expects the Fed to cut interest rates two straight times — 0.25% each — in December and January.
Michael Feroli stated, “We are back to expecting the final interest rate cut in January 2026. While the next FOMC meeting remains a close call, we see recent communications from Fed officials leaning towards a rate cut in the next two weeks.”
JPMorgan's new view resonates with investors in the swap market, who are now pricing in an 80% probability of a 0.25 basis point Fed rate cut next week, up sharply from below 30% last week after the release of September labor market data but before Williams' comments.
Reference: bloomberg.com
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