The real estate market in 69 will continue to slow down, but there is room for growth. KKP focuses on "horizontal developments and real demand."

Real estate transfers in 2025 are expected to reach a seven-year low, with plummeting sales and high inventory. New projects have plummeted by 33%, weakening purchasing power, and overstocking in the luxury housing and townhouse segments (2-5 million baht). KKP is cautiously controlling its loan portfolio, targeting 1.2 billion baht, focusing on prime locations and project size reduction.

1 December 2568 – Mr. Krathip Phruekprasertdee, Real Estate Industry Data Researcher, Kiatnakin Bank Public Company Limited The overall Thai real estate market is showing signs of gradual recovery, driven by the new government's post-election economic policies and large-scale infrastructure investments. However, the Thai real estate market is still estimated to be in a correction phase for 2568-2569, and sales are yet to fully return to pre-COVID-19 levels, particularly when compared to 2562, when sales in Bangkok and its vicinity reached 120,000 units per year.

The expected recovery is gradual, and the slowdown is likely to persist for another two to three years. Key factors include weak consumer purchasing power and high oversupply, particularly in the luxury housing and condominium sectors. This has prompted developers to urgently adjust their strategies, focusing on targeting niche demand, selecting precise locations, and adapting to the development of low-carbon projects. This aims to manage risks in the fragile market and enhance long-term competitiveness.

Real estate market overview 2568: Sales plummet, inventory high

The overall real estate market in 2025 remains in a clear correction phase. Nationwide property transfers are expected to reach approximately 300,000 units in 2025, down from pre-COVID levels of approximately 400,000 units per year. This represents the lowest level in seven years, and is expected to continue slowing for the next two to three years.

• New project launches in Bangkok and its vicinity are expected to decline significantly. The number of new units launched in 2568 is projected to be around 41,160, a decrease of over 33%, or around 20,000 units, from 2567. Total value has fallen to 2.4 billion baht, down from 4.18 billion baht the previous year. The sectors most clearly affected by new project launches are low-rise, with detached houses down 46%, semi-detached houses down 45%, and townhouses down 36%. Condominiums, on the other hand, saw a smaller decline, at 11%.
• Sales in the core areas (Bangkok and surrounding areas) also showed signs of continuous decline and reached a seven-year low, with sales of approximately 46,000 units, valued at 260 billion baht, a 21% decrease from the previous year.

In terms of residential property types, the most affected by sales declines in 2568 were condominiums, with sales contracting by 28%. This was followed by detached houses and semi-detached houses, which saw a 15% decline. High-end detached houses priced between 25 and 50 million baht are a segment that warrants special attention. Despite a 13% decrease in sales, the number of unsold units is expected to increase. By the end of the year, it is expected that there will be as many as 53,000 unsold detached units, with 3,000 units in this high-priced segment, which could take up to 5-6 years to absorb.

Trends for 2569: Opportunities in potential locations and demand adjustments

The real estate market in 2569 will continue to slow, but is expected to decline by approximately 6%. This is due to the expected slow return of real demand from residential buyers, coupled with stimulus measures from the new government's policies and large-scale infrastructure investments, such as the extension of the electric train network (Purple Line South, Pink Line, and Orange Line) and the new government center. These are driving forces that will support the development of new projects and increase the value of real estate in the outer areas.

In this cautious market environment, developers are turning to smaller-scale projects, targeting specific customer groups, and placing greater emphasis on product quality to control risks in line with purchasing power. This has resulted in the market beginning to rebalance. The number of unsold homes nationwide is expected to decrease to approximately 207,998 units in 2569, a decrease of approximately 6% compared to the previous year.

Markets with good growth potential include areas benefiting from the new electric train line, as well as zones popular with foreigners such as Ratchada, Lat Phrao, Sukhumvit, and Bang Na, and tourist provinces such as Phuket and Prachuap Khiri Khan. However, there are still issues that need to be monitored, particularly for townhouses priced between 2 and 5 million baht. There are approximately 115,000 units remaining, or 57% of the total, distributed in several peripheral areas, which are vulnerable to price competition.

Foreign Market: Phuket is still a market with high potential.

The number of condominium transfers to foreigners nationwide in 2568 is expected to decrease slightly by 4% compared to 2567, with Chonburi, Chiang Mai, and Samut Prakan provinces experiencing the largest decreases. Conversely, Bangkok, Prachuap Khiri Khan, and Surat Thani saw increases, demonstrating that the potential of each area is changing rapidly.

Phuket remains a high-potential market, with transfers expected to increase by 10% in 2568 compared to 2567, and further increases expected in 2569 and 2570, driven by foreigners purchasing condominiums on long-term leasehold contracts, coupled with the expansion of international schools, creating demand for long-term housing for large families.

KKP controls loans carefully and adjusts portfolio to absorb market risks

Mr. Wisarut Panyapinyophon, Real Estate Lending Head, Kiatnakin Bank Public Company Limited It was revealed that overall loans to real estate developers in 2568 were 12,000 billion baht, a decrease of approximately 20% from the previous year. This is in line with cautious entrepreneurial behavior and delays in purchasing land for development.

“Since we have a small condo portfolio, our overall portfolio is relatively stable. The majority of our portfolio is in horizontal development.” Mr. Wisarut said

He stated that the majority of KKP's real estate portfolio, 85%, is located in Bangkok and its vicinity. Historically, 70% of loans were for "new project loans." However, from 2567 to 2569, the proportion of new project loans has decreased to 40-50%, with the most significant decline being in "land acquisitions awaiting development" due to fewer new project launches and slower sales.

“Most of our portfolio, 70%, is SME developers… Today, our proportion may be adjusted to be more of a listed company. Currently, the proportion is about half.” This means that Non-Listed Companies can slow down during periods when they do not need to undertake new projects.

Regarding lending, KKP maintains its 2569 loan target of 12,000 billion baht, focusing on location selection and ensuring that real-demand products priced between 3 and 5 million baht can still sell, as this aligns with consumer purchasing power. However, developers must allow for a longer project completion period.

“If entrepreneurs talk to banks and can accept slower sales growth while still surviving, which depends on liquidity and capital capabilities, or if they can downsize projects to achieve faster project completions, that's where we can connect with our customers.”

Mr. Wisarut added that Key factors for entrepreneurs in this situation This involves selecting locations that can generate good sales based on specific demand, such as those near workplaces, schools, or large shopping centers. KKP also sees a trend of entrepreneurs adapting to Green & Sustainable Living standards by selecting low-carbon materials and emphasizing energy-saving design, which will become a part of future market competition.

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