Globex expects the Thai stock market to fluctuate within the range of 1,230-1,280 points this week, with attention focused on the FTSE's new rebalancing announcement on December 19th.

Globlex Securities estimates the Thai stock index will fluctuate within the range of 1,230-1,280 points this week, pressured by political issues and the unrest on the Thai-Cambodian border, affecting short-term investment confidence. Therefore, they recommend an investment strategy focusing on stocks that will benefit from the FTSE Rebalancing, effective December 19th.

December 15, 2568 Ms. Wilawanee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director, Globlex Securities Co., Ltd. or GBS The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index is expected to fluctuate this week, pressured by domestic political factors following Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's dissolution of parliament. This has resulted in delays to new government investment projects, particularly economic stimulus measures such as the "Half-Price Plus" Phase 2 scheme and the TISA program, potentially leading to a slowdown in the Thai economy in the final quarter of 2568.

Meanwhile, additional pressure is mounting due to the tense situation along the Thai-Cambodian border. The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) indicates that the border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia have severely impacted the economy, resulting in a nearly 100% decrease in daily sales. Furthermore, the ongoing US trade and tariff negotiations remain uncertain, creating uncertainty in the overall investment climate. Therefore, the SET index is projected to fluctuate within the range of 1,230-1,280 points.

Regarding the investment climate at the end of 2568. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the global economy and the direction of the Thai economy. A prominent positive factor is the BOI board's approval of 15 new investment projects totaling over 240,000 billion baht. These projects cover strategic industries such as data centers, clean energy, smart industrial estates, and maritime transport, which are expected to enhance Thailand's competitiveness and attract foreign investment.

Meanwhile, the government is increasingly supporting the use of electric vehicles. Most recently, the EV board approved measures to support the production of Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicles (MHEVs) by setting a fixed excise tax rate for 7 years, from 2569 to 2575, in order to incentivize manufacturers and propel Thailand towards becoming a regional hub for electric vehicle production.

In addition, the Federal Reserve (Fed) voted 9 to 3 to cut its short-term interest rate by 0.25% to 3.50-3.75%, as expected by the market. This marks the third consecutive interest rate cut, reflecting an effort to support the economy amidst global financial uncertainty.

The latest Dot Plot signals that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 0.25% once in 2026, consistent with the direction signaled at the September meeting. It also revised upward its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2026 to 2.3% from the previous 1.8%, reflecting confidence in the economic recovery, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks that need monitoring.

meanwhile Domestic factors that may affect investment must also be monitored. such as

• December 17th is the last MPC meeting of 2568.
• In the third week, the FTI announced the Industrial Confidence Index. The FTI announced the production and export figures for automobiles, motorcycles, and automotive parts.
• Week 4: The Ministry of Commerce announces the international trade situation; the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) reports on the fiscal and economic situation; the regional economic situation; the regional economic confidence index; and the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) announces the industrial production index.
• On December 30, the Bank of Thailand reported on the state of the Thai economy and finance.

As for foreign factors that are still being monitored such as

• Today, December 15th, Japan will report its Tankan Index (Index of Confidence among Large Manufacturers) for the fourth quarter of 2025; China will report November housing prices, industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and the unemployment rate; and the United States will report its December housing market index and the Empire State Manufacturing Index.
• On December 16th, the U.S. will report weekly private sector employment figures, including October's nonfarm payrolls, October's retail sales, November's housing starts and building permits, and the preliminary December Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing and services sectors.

Mr. Watcharin Chongyonyong, Director of Research, Globlex Securities This guide introduces investment strategies for stocks that will benefit from the weight reduction in the FTSE Rebalancing index, effective December 19, 2568. Stocks added to the FTSE SET Large-Cap Index include THAI, while AWC is removed. Similarly, stocks added to the FTSE SET Mid-Cap Index include AWC and SCCC, while PTL, PSL, PSH, SNNP, STECON, and TQM are removed.

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