U.S. consumer prices are likely to accelerate in November amid increased pass-through of import tax costs to consumers, while inflation data has been impacted by the government shutdown.
On December 18, 2025 at 1:12 a.m., CNBC reported that Economists expect U.S. consumer prices to rise at their largest rate in about a year and a half in the 12 months leading up to November. This exacerbates the worsening cost of living that Americans are facing, partly linked to the impact of import tariffs.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), under the Department of Labor, will release its November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this Tuesday. However, there will be no month-to-month change reports because the 43-day government shutdown made it impossible to collect price data for October. The October CPI report was cancelled due to the inability to obtain historical price data.
The longest government shutdown in history also impacted labor market data, with the government unable to release the October unemployment rate for the first time. However, the BLS will release year-on-year (YoY) inflation figures for both CPI and Core CPI, excluding the highly volatile food and energy categories.
The agency also produces numerous other indices besides the core CPI and main CPI data. Indices that rely on data that does not necessarily require field data collection can still be published, but the BLS states that "the number of indices that can be published will be limited."
The BLS further stated that: "It was not possible to provide data users with clear guidelines for addressing the October data gap." Economists recommend considering inflation rates on a year-on-year basis, or the change over a two-month period instead.
Andy Schneider, Senior Economist at BNP Paribas (US). said “Progress in curbing inflation has stalled… largely due to manufacturing companies beginning to pass on import taxes to product prices.”
A Reuters poll of economists forecasts November's CPI to rise 3.1% year-on-year, the largest increase since May 2567. The CPI for the 12 months to September was 3.0%.
However, the CPI figures may be lower than expected because data collection is delayed until the end of the month, a period when retailers offer discounts for the year-end shopping season, resulting in price reductions on certain product categories such as furniture and leisure goods.
Veronica Clark, an economist from Citigroup. said "The CPI for November this year may reflect a period of greater-than-normal year-end discounts, which differs from the normal calculation of prices for the entire month... If prices fall unusually in November, there could be a strong rebound in the prices of these goods in December."
The broad range of import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump has pushed up prices for many types of goods, although the pass-through of these costs is gradual as businesses continue to clear their pre-tightening inventories and absorb some of the tariffs themselves. This is reflected in the moderate price increases for new vehicles.
Samuel Tombs, Chief Economist for the United States at Pantheon Macroeconomics. said “Retailers are in the process of passing on import taxes to consumers and have already passed on around 40% of the cost by September… We expect that proportion to gradually increase to 70% by March and stabilize thereafter.”
Economists point out that the burden of import taxes falls particularly hard on very low-income households because this group has almost no savings and also faces slower wage growth than other workers.
Trump, who won the 2567 presidential election on a promise to control inflation, has in recent weeks alternated between denying the existence of the high cost of living, blaming former President Joe Biden, and promising that Americans will benefit from his economic policies next year.
Core CPI is expected to rise 3.0% year-on-year in November, the same level as September, reflecting pressure from rent and commodity prices (excluding food and energy). Lower airfares, hotel and motel prices may help mitigate this pressure.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index as its inflation target at 2%. The PCE index is calculated from some components of the CPI and the Producer Price Index (PPI).
The October PPI report was also cancelled, while the November producer inflation report is scheduled for release in mid-January. The November PCE report has no rescheduled release date. Both PCE figures for September remained significantly above the Fed's targets.
Last week, the Fed cut its policy interest rate by another 0.25% to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, but signaled that further rate cuts may not occur in the near future, as it still needs more clarity on the direction of the labor market and inflation.
Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman told reporters that "The main factor driving inflation above the target range is import taxes."
It may take some time before consumers see prices drop as the White House begins to ease import tariffs on certain goods, such as beef. Bananas and coffee.
Sara House, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo. "Given the trend of companies reviewing their pricing at the beginning of the calendar year, we see the possibility of another ripple effect of consumer inflation in the first quarter."
refer : reuters.com
Read news related to The full US economic situation can be found here.
