In 2569, prepare for uncertainty with discipline and diversification.

Are you ready to enter 2569? Many investors are probably preparing to adjust their investment portfolios for the coming year, right?

The year 2025, which is about to end, has been both a brutal and awe-inspiring for the world. It began with the return of world leader Donald Trump to a second term as President of the United States, a move that sent the world into a panic and left them scrambling to cope. And we will have to live with Trump for the next two to three years, unless something unexpected happens.

Will Donald Trump be more lenient with the world next year? What else will we face? Will it be more difficult and severe than this year? How should we prepare? Everyone has so many questions they want answered, right? Let's look at the data and find the answers together.

Which stock market will surge in 2568? It certainly won't be US stocks.

In any case, it was a golden year for both the stock market and gold, allowing investors worldwide to reap significant profits amidst the Liberation Day trade war, reaching its peak in history when China retaliated fiercely against the US, creating global tension that threatened to explode in April. Global supply chains were disrupted. Ultimately, Trump opened the door for negotiations to allow global trade to move forward. Investor confidence returned, and combined with the power of AI driving the global economy, the second half of the year was a very exciting period for investors worldwide.

Believe it or not, this year we've heard news of US stocks continuously hitting all-time highs, but what about the global stock markets that have seen the biggest gains?

Let's look at which stock markets have performed the best this year. Believe it or not, some stock markets around the world have outperformed "traditional major markets" like the US, delivering outstanding global returns, particularly indices in Europe and Asia.

Top 5 best-performing international stock markets in the world for 2568 YTD.  As of December 5, 68, the figures are:

• KOSPI (South Korea) rose by more than 60%.
• The Czech Republic Index is up 53.4%.
• Poland Index (Poland) +48.4%
• Hungary Index (+46.7%)
• Ibex 35 (Spain) +45%

Many people wonder why US stock markets, such as the S&P 500 or Dow Jones, repeatedly reach all-time highs, but are not among the top five highest-performing stock market indices worldwide when compared to other stock market indices that have experienced even stronger growth.

Year-to-date returns of the world's major stock markets.

• The HSI (Hong Kong) rose +31.3%, making it the biggest gainer among major markets this year.
• The Nikkei 225 (Japan) is up 26.8%, ranking second highest return this year.
• Nasdaq (US) +22.5%, one of the strongest performing European indices among major markets.
• The S&P 500 (US) gained 17.1%, showing strong growth but not as outstanding as some Asian or European indices.
• DAX (Germany) +26.2%, driven by industry and energy sectors.
• Shanghai Composite (China) +18% despite being affected by the trade war this year.

In summary, a key trend for 2568 is that Asian markets, such as Hong Kong and Japan, are expected to outperform the American market.

US technology themes, such as the Nasdaq, continue to grow strongly, remaining one of the highest-returning sectors.

European markets, such as the DAX, grew at a pace similar to Japan, driven by industrial and energy sectors.

The Chinese market remains positive driven by strong growth in the technology and export sectors, despite a decline in exports to the United States, and by domestic economic stimulus measures.

The Vietnamese stock market is another strong growth market in Southeast Asia. The VN Index is up 30% year-to-date, a high level driven by domestic capital inflows, economic growth, and news of Vietnam's potential upgrade to an Emerging Market in 2569, which is attracting long-term investment.

The stock markets with the largest year-to-date (YTD) negative indices.

• Saudi Arabia's economy contracted by approximately 15.20% due to weak oil prices and concerns about its economic diversification plans.
• Indonesia's stock market contracted by around 14.52%, a sharp decline due to selling pressure and concerns about a weakening economy.
• Türkiye's economy fell by around 13.17%, experiencing a sharp decline due to capital outflows and domestic economic problems.
• The Philippines contracted by 12.93%, facing pressure from both domestic and international factors.
• India's economy is down 9.64%, and although there have been some periods of recovery this year, it has not been able to generate positive returns.

The stock markets with the largest negative indices worldwide are mostly located in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, facing pressure from domestic economic factors such as inflation, capital outflows, and slowing consumption, resulting in negative returns.

And the US stock market continued its strong performance in the final stretch of December, with the S&P 500 closing at another all-time high. If you bought US stocks at their all-time lows in April when Trump declared the trade war, you would now be up 42%.

When it comes to preparing investment portfolios for 2569, many people are probably wondering what other challenges we will face.

Opportunities and challenges in a bipolar world, and investment themes.

Looking ahead to 2569, the global market is showing signs of transition in several areas, including economic and financial factors, and capital flows that are moving in a different direction. Certainly, 2569 should be a year of caution, given the overvalued stock markets, particularly in the US, in the ever-changing AI world, and the uncertainty surrounding what further events President Trump might trigger.

Despite the US implementing new tariffs for the first time this year, global trade in both goods and services expanded more strongly than expected. Furthermore, trade in many Asian countries was boosted significantly by increased demand for AI-related products, linked to rising investment in ICT equipment.

The OECD forecasts that the global economy will grow by 3.2% in 2568. This year, the global economy has absorbed the shock of the trade war better than expected, with production and exports boosted ahead of the US tariffs taking effect. Coupled with easing financial conditions, rising real income, and strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) investment, particularly in the US, these factors have supported consumer demand, offsetting the impact of trade barriers, policy uncertainty, and declining housing investment.

Overall global economic outlook for next year. The OECD has projected global GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026, a slowdown from this year. US GDP is expected to expand by 2.0% this year before slowing to 1.7% next year. China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0% this year, slowing to 4.4% next year, while India's GDP is expected to expand by 6.7% this year and decline to 6.2% next year. The G20 group of economies is projected to grow by 3.2% this year and 2.9% next year. The OECD itself is expected to grow by 1.7% both this year and next year.

In 2569, global growth is expected to be slightly slower than this year, with developed countries growing at only around 1.6%, making them insufficient to be the primary driver of the global economy. This increases their vulnerability to financial, political, or geopolitical shocks. Asia remains a key engine of global growth, concentrated in China, India, and ASEAN, partially offsetting the slowdown in developed countries.

I'd like to discuss two major world powers, the opportunities and risks for investing in these two stock markets, which I believe still offer diversification opportunities to capitalize on long-term economic growth.

By world leaders. "United States" Still driven by the world of AI, it remains a key card for the US, with both positive and negative aspects. On the positive side, AI increases productivity, attracts investment, and helps reduce fiscal burdens. However, on the negative side, if AI fails to generate real productivity, it could become a downside risk that exacerbates economic problems and accelerates stagflation (low economic growth and high inflation). Meanwhile, Trump's policies, such as tariffs, labor restrictions, and budget deficits, may push economic costs higher along with slowing growth.

A major risk to the US to monitor is its government debt structure. This is a chronic fiscal risk, with the average maturity of US government debt at around 4 years, compared to around 14 years in the UK. This necessitates frequent refinancing and sensitivity to interest rates. Furthermore, private credit poses an inherent risk to the US financial system. Currently, the US has rapidly growing off-market debt. While this might not be a problem if the economy remains strong, a recession could exacerbate the vulnerability of private credit, leading to a crisis and severely impacting financial liquidity.

Another major risk is policy risk. President Trump's continued pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates sharply in 2569 could weaken the dollar and trigger a new round of inflation, contradicting the Fed's signals that further rate cuts are becoming increasingly unlikely. However, what will happen next year, with a change in the Fed chairman in mid-year as Powell's term expires, is that Trump already has a candidate in mind to implement politically motivated policies. Therefore, the independence of monetary policy is a crucial issue that the market must closely monitor.

bank "China" China, the world's second-largest economy and the leading nation in Asia, still faces structural risks that hinder its economic recovery. The real estate sector, a significant component of GDP, remains in crisis, and deflation, reflecting weak domestic demand, makes relying solely on exports to boost GDP highly limiting.

On the industrial sector, China is facing overcapacity, forcing it to offload goods through exports, such as EVs and solar power. This has led to many countries imposing tariffs and increasing trade tensions. The impact will inevitably affect supply chain countries. Furthermore, the form and consequences of Trump's trade war next year remain unpredictable.

Financial and credit system risks: Currently, China faces problems with local debt and weak financial institutions due to large amounts of bad debt, putting pressure on the financial system if not managed effectively. Resolving these issues could take a long time before the domestic economy experiences strong growth, even though China currently has another pillar of rapid development: its technology sector.

However, the Chinese government is preparing to unveil its five-year national strategic plan (2026-2030) early next year. Initially, the plan emphasizes improving the quality of economic growth through three pillars: economic resilience, scientific and technological driving force, and sustainable development. Details will be released early next year, and the world is awaiting to assess the impact of this five-year strategy on China's growth, its effects on global markets, and whether China can overtake the United States as the world's leading power, amidst President Trump's concerns.

Therefore, in 2026, amidst a global economic slowdown, both superpowers will have AI as a driving force for growth alongside intensified competition. At the same time, it will also be a year where "opportunity and risk go hand in hand" for the investment world.

Looking at investment trends in 2026, I see three factors influencing the market:

The first point is the picture of investment in AI technology. Massive investment is expected to continue into next year. Many US companies are pushing ahead with investments even without a clear revenue stream, which could lead to a bubble burst and a US stock market correction if there are ultimately winners and losers according to the zero-sum game principle.

I've seen several firms, including Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York, and related organizations, predict a busy year in 2569, with M&A and IPO deals spanning technology, healthcare, industry, and finance. They also anticipate increased mergers and acquisitions in the banking sector, given the current economic environment's favorable conditions for such activities.

While the "Magnificent 7" stocks, or "7 Angel Stocks," have recently acquired nearly a thousand companies, diversifying their business risks through extensive investments. Google alone has acquired over 250 companies.

Recently, Elon Musk announced he will take SpaceX public with an IPO valued at $1.5 trillion to accelerate the construction of data centers in space. This will be a secret weapon that Elon Musk can use effectively to train AI at the cheapest and fastest rate possible, something competitors cannot achieve.

Looking ahead, no one can predict where the AI ​​world will reach or what China, a major competitor to the United States, will develop next. After China's release of DeepSeek late last year, which shook the AI ​​world with its lower price than the US and quickly gained international recognition, many other countries are adapting to the AI ​​landscape. Next year, the AI ​​war will undoubtedly heat up.

The second point is the direction of the Fed's interest rates. President Trump's recent tariffs have not yet driven inflation higher, leading the Federal Reserve (Fed) to a split decision at its final meeting of the year (December 10th), cutting the policy interest rate by 0.25% to 3.5-3.75%. This marks the third rate cut this year. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that future rate cuts may be unlikely, depending on how the economy develops next year. Trump, meanwhile, is pushing for further rate cuts. The concern for both the Fed and the market is that if the tariffs do indeed cause inflation to rise in the future, a hasty rate cut could lead to misdirected management and a stock market correction.

The Bank of New York assesses the monetary policy direction of major countries, stating that the Fed is likely to pursue a growth-supportive policy, leading to a slight weakening of the dollar. The European Central Bank may ease its policies but to a limited extent, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise interest rates.

The third point is that the K-shaped economic recovery is occurring globally. If a country fails to adapt and utilize technology to drive its economy, thereby increasing efficiency and reducing costs to remain competitive amidst the ongoing trade war, it will be in danger.

Goldman Sachs analysts believe U.S. stocks will remain strong in 2569 as AI begins to boost corporate earnings in the market. They also project the S&P 500 index at 7,600 points, or +12% from today's level.

Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors warned that the S&P 500 index could experience a sharp correction of -10% or -15% in the first half of 2569. However, he expects the S&P 500 to surge another +12% for the full year, reaching 7,700 points, as investors who are still uncertain about AI begin to invest in the market.

However, another factor to watch next year is the US dollar, which is likely to weaken. This could lead to capital flows into assets in other countries, including emerging markets, which may benefit directly.

Let's look at the opportunities from the main investment themes for 2569.

• The growth of AI and technology remains a key theme in global markets, particularly in the technology and innovation sectors.
• Opportunities arising from digital consumption, infrastructure development, renewable energy, clean energy, and ESG (Environment, Society, Governance) are noteworthy in Europe and Asia.
• Stocks in sectors with consistent income or good dividend payments (Dividend, Defensive) are assets that can strengthen a portfolio during volatile periods.
• A weakening US dollar could increase the likelihood of capital flowing to assets in other countries, including emerging markets which could benefit directly.

Tips for managing a resilient portfolio - focus on being more selective.

"How should I structure my portfolio next year?" is a question everyone wants a definitive answer to, right? In reality, analysts can only make predictions about potential scenarios, which could always change for the better or worse.

The only definitive answer is, "The world is becoming more uncertain," which I always say is something no one can control.

What you need to do most is build a strong ship (port), prepare for whatever happens, and always look for opportunities in crises.

For building a strong investment ship, I often share a simple formula: a Core and Satellite portfolio allocation strategy. The core portfolio aims for long-term stability, emphasizing diversification across global asset classes, primarily weighting stocks and bonds. Choose high-quality assets that generate consistent returns, even at low levels, to mitigate risk during volatile market conditions.

The secondary portfolio (Satellite Portfolio) represents opportunities to profit during uptrends or high-growth future prospects. It primarily focuses on stocks, possibly selecting stocks from high-growth countries such as China or Vietnam, or focusing on specific industries and megatrends driving the world. Currently, technology themes such as AI, Cloud, Data Centers, and Cybersecurity are very popular. Additionally, alternative assets such as gold, short-term bonds, or real estate can be included to mitigate overall risk.

For both portfolios, I recommend an 80% allocation in the core portfolio and a 20% allocation in the secondary portfolio for those with a low risk tolerance. This allocation will allow you to sleep soundly, even during unexpected stock market crises like Liberation Day, where losses will be more heavily felt in the secondary portfolio. The core portfolio, diversified across multiple asset classes and consistently generating returns, will ensure your overall portfolio still provides returns when the secondary portfolio suffers losses from stock market volatility.

In 2569, investors will place greater emphasis on selective asset selection, particularly diversifying risk away from large-cap US technology stocks towards...

Emerging markets and value equity, along with increasing investment opportunities, are opening up more in small-cap technology stocks.

You should avoid companies with high debt levels, as the bond yield curve is likely to steepen. While short-term interest rates may gradually decline, long-term interest rates are likely to rise due to economic uncertainty and the high volume of bonds issued in the market.

For large-cap tech stocks, especially the "7 Angels," we anticipate profit-taking selling pressure, as many companies are under scrutiny for having risen sharply to levels that may be excessively high compared to their fundamentals (Extreme Level). A key factor to watch is the monetization capability of AI platforms. The case of ChatGPT, which has started charging fees and throttling speeds for free users, reflects the trend that tech companies need to seriously demonstrate a return on investment. This will be reflected in next year's earnings, which will indicate whether the US stock market will continue its upward trend or decline.

Let me share a few tips on managing your portfolio to withstand the challenges of next year.

1. Rebalance your portfolio regularly, every 3-6 months, to lock in profits and reduce risk. For example, the US stock market has risen 60% over 3 years. If your US stock portfolio is performing exceptionally well, you should sell some to realize profits, because the higher the market rises, the greater the chance of a correction.
2. Setting a stop-loss point for speculative investing is a key to reducing risk in your portfolio. If a crisis or a turning point occurs in your invested assets, and the future looks uncertain, analyze the situation thoroughly and decide it's time to sell and cut your losses. It's better to keep some of your remaining funds than to have none at all.
3. Maintaining cash reserves will provide opportunities to reinvest during market corrections or crises, as per Warren Buffett's principle: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
4. Invest with discipline and follow a plan using the Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) method. This tool helps eliminate emotions and feelings from the investment game. You won't need to worry about timing prices, because we can't predict short-term market movements. However, historical data shows that after sharp market downturns, the market tends to recover quickly. Therefore, DCA will minimize losses during periods of high market volatility or uncertainty.

In a highly uncertain world, investors who can build a strong portfolio through diversified global asset classes based on a model that suits them will be able to weather any situation and achieve their goal of building a sustainable and secure investment portfolio in the long term.