Brokers believe the US-Venezuela situation will cause short-term oil price volatility and recommend speculative trading in arms and asphalt stocks.
Analysts predict that 69 will start with intense tensions from the Venezuela conflict following the US military operation. They are closely watching the impact on global oil prices from the country with the largest oil reserves. They recommend key investment opportunities in asphalt, weapons, and electric vehicles.
January 5, 2569 Asia Plus Securities Co., Ltd. (ASPS) The analysis revealed that... The year 2569 begins with global tensions and domestic factors that investors need to closely monitor. Given the conflict in Venezuela and the direction of global oil prices, geopolitical risks have intensified after the United States launched a special military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, to arrest leader Maduro.
According to the sources, This event affected oil prices in two phases. คือ short term Experts predict that the price of Brent crude oil may only rise by 1-2 dollars per barrel, as Venezuela currently produces and exports very little oil compared to the global supply.
while long term If the situation improves and Venezuela receives assistance from the United States, allowing production to return to 2.5 million barrels per day, oil prices could fall by up to 4%, as Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves at 3.03 billion barrels.
Furthermore, the conflict in Venezuela is also a supporting factor for arms stocks, with speculative trading recommended through the ISHARES US AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF (ITA US), which holds leading companies such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin involved in the operation.
side Liberator Securities The analysis indicates that the United States occupied Venezuela, which possesses the world's largest oil reserves, totaling 303,000 billion barrels, representing 17-20% of the global total, and is one of the world's major oil producers. In the past, Venezuela produced up to 3.5 million barrels per day, accounting for 7% of the world's total, but now it has dropped to only 1 million barrels per day, or 0.8% of the world's total. The majority of the oil produced is heavy oil used to manufacture diesel and asphalt. China is the main customer.
Therefore, it is expected that this news may cause oil prices to rise in the short term, as production in those countries is low and they are also subject to sanctions from the United States. If the United States intervenes in this issue, it is expected to increase the oil supply on the market from Venezuela, which is not expected to affect the company.The majority of oil in Thailand is not imported from those countries.
Maybank Securities (Thailand) It was stated that the US operation in Venezuela, which involved the arrest and overthrow of President Maduro's government, with the US taking over the transition period and working to restore energy infrastructure, currently has a minimal impact on oil supply in the short term. This is because Venezuela only produces 0.8-0.9 mbpd, or less than 1% of global production. However, in the medium to long term, it poses a risk to crude oil supply, as Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves of 3 billion barrels, representing 17% of the total.
Ten years ago (in 2015), production capacity peaked at 2.4 mbpd, but increasing it to that level is expected to take considerable time and investment. Asian stocks reacted positively this morning, with Brent crude oil prices slightly up 0.2%. For speculative stock recommendations, TASCO is suggested due to the potential for resuming heavy crude oil imports from Venezuela, which has a high asphalt product yield supporting its Gross Profit Margin (GPM), should the US lift sanctions.
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