Hua Seng Heng points out that gold's breakout above $5,000 is not just an all-time high, but reflects a shift in the investment landscape.

Gold prices surpass $5,000 to kick off 2026! This signals an era of permanent geopolitical risk following the Iranian crisis escalating into confrontation with the US. Hua Seng Heng indicates this isn't just speculation, but a turning point for investment portfolios towards stable assets, with the next target price at $5,440.

January 27, 2026 – The global gold price surpassing $5,000 per troy ounce in early 2569 is not merely a new all-time high, but a signal that the investment world is shifting towards an era where geopolitical risk is a permanent component of the investment system. This price rise is not due to short-term speculation, but rather the result of international political conflicts, instability in the balance of power, and the use of trade measures as a strategic tool.

Hua Seng Heng assesses that this year the world is no longer facing fragmented risks, but rather a situation where geopolitical conflicts are occurring simultaneously in multiple areas and are structurally interconnected. These conflicts affect energy, trade, inflation, and the confidence and stability of the international financial system. These risks do not have a clear timeframe and cannot be resolved by economic policy alone. As a result, markets are shifting their focus from seeking returns to prioritizing the protection of investment portfolios.

Iran is a focal point of risk to the global energy system and security.

Of all the geopolitical tensions currently unfolding, Iran is the focus of top analyst attention and the main reason why the global investment climate remains in a "cautionary" mode. From late 2025 to early 2026, Iran faced a severe economic crisis after the Iranian Rial plummeted to near worthlessness in the global market, inflation soared, and was coupled with heightened political tensions leading to the largest protests in the country's modern history. These protests escalated into calls for the overthrow of the government and the Supreme Leader. Reports indicate that clashes and crackdowns by government forces have resulted in over 5,000 deaths and the arrest of over 10,000 protesters.

Meanwhile, relations between Iran and the United States and its Western allies are strained after the Tehran government accused the United States and Israel of being behind the protests and violence, as well as of supporting terrorists and armed rioters who killed innocent Iranians.

Most recently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated again as the US military deployed a large force, including the Navy, Air Force, and thousands of troops, to the Persian Gulf. This was done under orders from President Donald Trump to be on maximum alert. Meanwhile, Iran has stepped up its missile and drone deployments nationwide in preparation for a tit-for-tat retaliation should its sovereignty be violated. These movements by both sides are seen as strategic signals that markets cannot ignore, for three key reasons:

• Iran is a bottleneck in the global energy sector.

Iran plays a crucial role in the stability of the Middle East and influences the vital oil shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, which is used by more than one-fifth of the world's crude oil tankers. If military force is used and this crucial shipping route is cut off, the consequences will not be limited to a regional level but will immediately shake global oil prices, inflation, and the production costs of goods in every country.

• The risk of direct conflict between major powers.

Iran is not an isolated country. If the situation escalates, it could draw major powers like Russia, China, or other Middle Eastern nations into the conflict, directly or indirectly. The market therefore views this not as a typical regional conflict, but as a point that could destabilize the global balance of power.

• Uncertainty that has no end.

Unlike economic crises, Iran represents a "prolonged" risk that could erupt at any time. Even news of troop movements or aggressive statements is enough to send markets into risk-averse mode immediately.

The global economy continues to push forward amidst geopolitical fragility.

Meanwhile, the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland, and political interference in Latin America all reflect a world entering an era of power struggles rather than cooperation. For financial markets, divisions among allies signify not only regional risks but also difficulties in coordinating global economic, trade, and security policies, increasing uncertainty about the long-term economic outlook.

While the world may not yet be in a severe recession economically, most vulnerabilities are linked to geopolitical conflicts, which manifest differently in different regions. The United States faces high debt burdens and financing costs amidst internal political instability; Europe is impacted by energy costs and policy inconsistencies; and China continues to face pressure from the international trade environment. The global economy is therefore in a state of "functioning but not immune," vulnerable to international conflicts.

Inflation is slowing but risks remain high; interest rate policy cannot solve all problems.

In terms of inflation, while inflation rates have slowed from their peak, the current price pressures that concern the market are directly rooted in geopolitics. Whether it's energy volatility, trade protectionism, or restructuring of global supply chains, these factors cannot be controlled by interest rate policy alone. When interest rates fail to truly address the root causes of risk, gold is seen as a store of value in a world where inflation is accelerating again due to international political events, even during an economic slowdown.

Major players increased their gold holdings, supporting long-term price trends.

The behavior of major market players further underscores the role of gold in this context. Central banks, long-term funds, and financial institutions are increasing their gold holdings to hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, currency fluctuations, and financial system instability. These investment purchases are not aimed at short-term profits, but rather at restructuring their long-term portfolios, resulting in a stronger and more sustainable base for gold price increases.

Looking at the overall picture, gold's breakout above $5,000 is not the end of an uptrend, but rather a signal that financial markets are entering a new phase where geopolitical risk is a permanent component of the investment system. Gold is thus shifting from a safe haven asset protecting against crisis to a core asset that investors use to balance their portfolios in a world where uncertainty is commonplace.

Goals and strategies for gold investment.

Hua Seng Heng estimates that although gold prices are still in an upward trend, they may face periodic profit-taking selling pressure from the market. Investors should therefore wait for buying opportunities during price dips, with key support levels at $5,000 and $4,935 per troy ounce (or equivalent to 74,500 and 73,500 baht per baht of gold in Thailand). The target gold price for 2026 is set at $5,440 per troy ounce (or equivalent to 81,000 baht per baht of gold in Thailand), calculated using an exchange rate of 31.50 baht/dollar.

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