The real estate market in 2569 is expected to have a fragile recovery. KKP recommends holding cash and reducing debt to cope with negative structural factors.

Analysts and developers indicate that the Thai real estate sector passed its lowest point in 2568 but still faces strain from declining purchasing power. They are watching as the top 5 groups dominate the condominium market, surging to 53% as smaller developers retreat due to credit constraints and costs. They warn developers to avoid investing in vacant land and office space for rent to escape oversupply and the burden of land taxes that hinder cash flow.

4 February 2569 – At the KKP Year Ahead 2026 annual seminar, Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group (KKP) experts and senior executives in the real estate sector assessed the direction of the industry. It was stated that although the overall situation had passed its most critical point in 2568, recovery in 2569 remains highly challenging due to economic pressures and permanently changing consumer behavior.

Scanning for Hindering Factors: When Real Demand Isn't the Main Engine

Mr. Traitecha Tangmatitham, Managing Director of Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI). Analysis suggests that the recovery of the real estate sector in 2026 will be gradual, not rapid (V-shaped) as previously predicted, due to three main factors affecting the market structure: a decline in the working-age population (26-45 years), the shift from buying to renting by younger generations prioritizing flexibility, and demand from foreigners not yet returning to normal levels.

“2568 was the most difficult year, and we believe we've passed the lowest point. However, the recovery in 2569 won't be spectacular, as we're battling structural factors, including declining purchasing power and changing housing values.”

The lower-end market crisis and the "big player monopoly" phenomenon.

The tightening of lending standards by financial institutions for retail loans (post-finance) has become a significant barrier, especially for housing priced below 3 million baht, where loan rejection rates are high. This has resulted in medium and small-sized enterprises (SMEs) facing liquidity problems and gradually reducing their role in the market.

On the other hand, data from... Narumon Eksamut, Securities Analyst, Kiatnakin Phatra Securities. The report indicates that the market is entering a phase of concentration by large players, with the top 5 companies poised to capture up to 53% of the new condominium market share in 2568, a significant increase from just 33% in 2567. This reflects their cost advantage in financing and their affluent customer base.

Survival Strategy: High Liquidity, Low Gearing

Regarding the management direction in 2569. Mr. Traitecha offered strategic advice, suggesting that entrepreneurs shift their focus from growth to maintaining financial stability. This involves prioritizing high cash reserves and keeping the debt-to-equity ratio low to create bargaining power and allow them to seize opportune moments to acquire high-quality assets or land at suitable prices.

"The key strategy for next year is the ability to manage cash flow. Businesses need to have high liquidity and low gearing to wait for opportunities to acquire low-cost land when market conditions are favorable."

Investment Blacklist: Office Space and Vacant Land

In addition, the seminar provided clear advice on the types of assets to avoid in 2569, including:

• Office buildings (Office Space): Which continues to face an oversupply situation due to the continuous launch of large-scale projects.
• Vacant land: Non-performing assets that generate no cash flow but create a progressive land tax burden may unnecessarily erode the company's liquidity.

Overview of the Thai real estate market in 2569. Survival in this economic cycle depends on navigating the storm of household debt and tighter central bank lending policies. Adjusting portfolios to focus on products that cater to high-income customers with genuine purchasing power, and managing financial costs prudently, will be the key to surviving this cycle.

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