Institutional investors (VIs) expect the Thai stock market to reach 1,500 points, confident in the stability of the government and fund flows from Indonesia and South Korea.
Institutional investors and value investors (VIs) expect the Thai stock market to reach 1,500 points within 1-2 months, boosted by the Bhumjaithai Party's landslide victory, a stable government, and significant fund inflows following the downgrade of the Indonesian stock market by MSCI and the upcoming upgrade of the South Korean stock market to developed market status.
February 10, 2469 Mr. Win Phromphaet, Executive Chairman, Kasikorn Asset Management Co., Ltd. It is viewed that the surprising election results, with the Bhumjaithai Party not expected to win overwhelmingly (landslide victory), became a driving force for the Thai stock index (SET) to rise above 1,400 points on February 9th. Similarly, the Japanese stock market, where the election results also resulted in a landslide, caused the Nikkei index to rise by 4%, reflecting the stock market's preference for political stability where the main party has a sufficient majority.
Therefore, Thai stocks are expected to have the potential to reach a high of 1,500 points this year. However, there are important factors to monitor. คือ Restoring confidence in the government, the composition of the cabinet, and whether the economy will achieve the promised 3% growth this year, as well as the timely disbursement of the budget, are all crucial factors. If the new government acts quickly, it is believed that investor confidence will allow the Thai stock market to continue its upward trend.
Mr. Win stated that, in addition, given that the Indonesian stock market may be downgraded from an emerging market (EM) by the MSCI index to a marginal market, the Thai stock market among the TIPs (Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines) is considered the best option.
"This government came into power amidst high volatility, geopolitical conflicts in many parts of the world, rising global government debt, natural disasters, technological disruption in businesses, and internal conflicts. These require professional management, including border control and handling President Donald Trump's policies. A strong economic team to manage these risks will restore confidence."
However, Mr. Win said that the Thai stock market, from yesterday until today, has risen considerably, touching the 200-day moving average, after receiving positive factors from the political situation that make the short-to-medium-term outlook look good.
"As of today, Kasikorn Asset Management maintains a Neutral rating on Thai stocks (equal to the market weight), waiting to see the government form a professional team and the budget be finalized in time for 2569."
Mr. Win also revealed that on February 13th, the Association of Investment Management Co., Ltd. (AIMC) will discuss the Thai Personal Savings Account (TISA) project, aiming to make TISA a key tool for long-term savings. The concept focuses on dollar-cost averaging (DCA), or monthly savings, with options to invest in individual stocks or mutual funds. This will allow institutional and retail investors to contribute more effectively to the Thai stock market, as it must be acknowledged that many investors and funds have been investing heavily abroad since the discontinuation of long-term equity funds (LTF).
side Mr. Wachana Wongsupasawat, Managing Director, Kasikorn Asset Management Co., Ltd. Currently, Kasikorn Asset Management maintains its SET index target at 1,450 points, but sees the possibility of revising this target to potentially reach 1,500 points. This depends on the effectiveness of economic stimulus measures, management of household debt, and the continued limited lending despite low interest rates. Furthermore, if the overall economy doesn't grow significantly, the earnings growth of listed companies will also be consequently low.
Mr. Yosakorn Follett, Chief Executive Officer of Xspring Asset Management. I believe the Thai stock market has the potential to reach 1,500 points, given that the Bhumjaithai Party is expected to lead the formation of the government. This would ensure policy continuity for the next four years. If the key economic ministers are professionals, it will build confidence among both domestic and international investors.
Acknowledging that the Thai stock market's rise is driven by foreign buying, and believing that fund flows will continue to inflow this year, benefiting from MSCI's downgrade of Indonesian equities after foreign capital outflows over the past 2-3 years.
สำหรับ Mr. Tiwa Chintadapong, or "Sianmi," is the president of the Thai Investors Association and a value investor (VI). It was stated that the Thai stock market rose yesterday due to political factors, with a view to reduced political risk. It must be acknowledged that this time we are seeing a government with absolute power, similar to the period in 2565 when General Prayut Chan-o-cha was Prime Minister, when the SET index was at 1,650 points and earnings per share (EPS) were 95 baht/share. This is a difference of over 200 points compared to the market performance this year.
However, Xianmi believes that the continuity of government policies and the timely disbursement of budgets, especially investment funds, will restore investor confidence.
"If we exclude DELTA, Thai stocks are very undervalued. We have many stocks with high dividends. I believe the Thai stock index will reach 1,500 points soon; it's possible within the next 1-2 months."
Mr. Tiwa believes that domestic plays, such as industrial estate and IT wholesale stocks, will benefit. He recommends accumulating small- and medium-sized stocks, believing that after large-cap stocks have performed well, the trend will shift to mid-cap and small-cap stocks. However, he emphasizes the need to monitor the economic policies of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul to see how much they can positively impact the Thai stock market.
Furthermore, the Thai stock market is experiencing fund inflows, partly from the Indonesian and South Korean stock markets. South Korea's potential upgrade from an emerging market to a developed market (DM) will likely lead to more capital flowing into Thailand.
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