"Globlex" expects the Thai stock market to fluctuate between 1,460 and 1,500 points this week, monitoring corporate earnings and MSCI rebalancing.

Globlex Securities expects the Thai stock market to move in a sideways range this week. Investors should monitor the earnings reports of listed companies and the MSCI Rebalance index adjustment, which will use the closing price on February 27th. The SET index is expected to range between 1,460 and 1,500 points. The recommended investment strategy is to focus on stocks included in the MSCI Global Small Cap index.

23 February 2569 – Ms. Wilawanee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director, Globlex Securities Co., Ltd. or GBS The Thai stock market is expected to move sideways this week. Investors continue to monitor the earnings announcements of listed companies, which will conclude this week. At the same time, the market is watching the MSCI Rebalance, which will use the closing prices of February 27th. Therefore, the SET index is expected to move within the range of 1,460 – 1,500 points.

The investment atmosphere this week was supported by positive factors both domestically and internationally, particularly Japan's manufacturing activity in February, which expanded at its fastest pace in almost four years. This reflects strong demand both domestically and internationally and is a positive sign for the global economy.

While CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors give approximately a 50% weight to the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 0.25% at its June meeting, boosting confidence in global market liquidity. In the United States, President Donald Trump announced the first phase of an investment program worth $5.5 billion, fulfilling a commitment made in Japan, seen as a stimulus for the global economy and trade.

Domestically, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Transport held discussions with the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) Secretary-General to move forward with the EECiti smart city project on over 15,000 rai of land, aiming to become a world-class economic and tourism hub, along with an entertainment hub, amusement park, sports complex, and exhibition center. Meanwhile, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reported that the industrial confidence index for January 2569 stood at 88.7, an increase from the previous month, reflecting the recovery of manufacturing activity and orders during the Chinese New Year period.

While negative factors both domestically and internationally are affecting investment confidence, the main issue stems from the US economy, specifically the release of December's trade deficit figures, which surged 32.6% to $7.03 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of $5.55 billion and up from $5.30 billion in November, reflecting pressure on the global economy and trade.

In addition to the higher-than-expected US trade deficit, the US Supreme Court recently ruled by a majority that the IEEPA (International Trade Eradication Programme) does not grant the president the authority to unilaterally impose tariffs. This resulted in the previously announced reciprocal tariffs being deemed excessive. However, President Trump continues to announce plans to raise global import tariffs to 15%, indicating that the tariff measures are far from over and could create uncertainty regarding the direction of international trade and investment.

In addition, it is also necessary to monitor domestic factors that may affect investment. such as

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, meeting number 1/69, will be held on February 25th.
• February 27, BOT reports on Thailand's economic and financial situation.
• Week 4: The Ministry of Commerce announces the international trade situation; the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) announces the production and export figures for automobiles, motorcycles, and automotive parts; the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) reports on the fiscal and economic situation, regional economic conditions, and the regional economic confidence index; and the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) announces the industrial production index.
• March 2nd is the last day to submit financial statements for Q4 68 and the full year 68.

The international situation is worth keeping an eye on. such as

• On February 23, the United States reported the national economic activity index for December and January, and factory orders for December.
• On February 24th, the EU will report new car sales figures for January, while the US will report weekly private sector employment figures, December home prices, and the February consumer confidence index.
• On February 25, the EU will report January's inflation rate, and the US will report weekly oil inventories.

Mr. Watcharin Chongyonyong, Director of Research, Globlex Securities This guide introduces investment strategies for stocks included in the latest MSCI Rebalance, based on closing prices as of February 27th. No stocks were added to the MSCI Thailand index, while CPAXT was removed. Stocks added to the MSCI Global Small Cap index include CRC, IVL, and JTS, while HANA, JMT, M, and PLANB were removed.

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