Thai CEOs project economic growth of 1.1-2% in 69, citing tourism and government spending as key drivers but noting continued risks from household debt and political instability.
A survey of 234 executives from listed companies revealed that over 73% expect the Thai economy to grow by only 1.1–2% in 2569, driven by the recovery of the tourism sector and government fiscal policies. However, businesses remain cautious about risks related to political stability, domestic purchasing power, and high levels of household debt, even though over 80% believe business revenue will continue to expand.
6 March 2569 – Research Department of the Stock Exchange of Thailand together with Thai Listed Companies Association The SET CEO Survey: Economic Outlook 2026 has been released, surveying the opinions of executives of listed companies regarding economic trends and business directions in 2569. Data was collected between January 23 and February 13, 2569, from 234 listed companies across 8 industries and 26 business categories, representing 53.9% of the total market capitalization.
The survey found that most executives of listed companies believe that the Thai economy will continue to experience limited growth in 2569. 73% of CEOs forecast that the Thai economy will grow by approximately 1–2%, which aligns with the estimates of key economic agencies such as the National Economic and Social Development Council, the Bank of Thailand, and the World Bank, which project similar growth.
Business executives believe that the key drivers of Thailand's economic growth this year will come from the recovery of the tourism sector, which is the number one factor, followed by fiscal policy and government spending, as well as domestic political stability, which helps build confidence in the business sector and investment.
Furthermore, some executives believe that the growth of the digital economy, progress in free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations, and improvements in governance and the reduction of corruption will be contributing factors to enhance Thailand's long-term economic potential.
When categorized by industry group, it was found that technology businesses prioritize political stability primarily, due to the need for policy clarity, while the agriculture and food group focuses more on exports, as their business structure is highly dependent on foreign markets.
Despite positive economic factors, businesses still assess several risks. The top three risk factors are:
- Political stability in the country
- domestic purchasing power
- Household debt levels
These three factors are interconnected, particularly the high level of household debt, which may limit people's spending and consumption capabilities, affecting overall economic growth.
Some industries have specific concerns; for example, the agriculture and food sector focuses on exchange rate volatility, while the real estate and construction sector is concerned about household debt, as it directly affects consumers' borrowing capacity and real estate purchasing decisions.
Regarding inflation trends, approximately half of the executives of listed companies expect the overall inflation rate in 2569 to be in the range of 1–3%, which is consistent with the Bank of Thailand's target range. While some estimate that inflation may be below 1% in the early part of the year before gradually rising in the second half.
Despite limited economic growth, businesses remain positive about revenue prospects. More than 80% of CEOs expect company revenue to continue growing in 2026, and over two-thirds estimate growth in the 0–10% range, reflecting a gradual recovery in the business sector.
When categorized by industry, the service sector showed the highest proportion of revenue growth forecasts, reflecting expectations for a recovery in economic activity and tourism. The financial and most industrial sectors anticipated moderate growth, while the real estate sector displayed more varied views due to uncertainty regarding domestic demand.
The survey also found that approximately 75% of executives believe the next 12 months are an opportune time for investment, with Thailand remaining a key base for their business operations while also seeking opportunities to expand investments to other ASEAN countries.
The country that has received the most attention. คือ Vietnam This is seen as both a production base and a market with high growth potential, followed by Malaysia and Indonesia. Meanwhile, some companies are interested in large markets such as China and India, as well as Europe and the United Arab Emirates, and are currently negotiating free trade agreements with Thailand.
The service sector, in particular, tends to diversify its investments across multiple countries the most, reflecting its resilience in business expansion. Meanwhile, some industries remain cautious about investment due to economic uncertainty and financing costs.
To address economic challenges, listed companies have adopted approaches in four main areas:
- Increase production efficiency through technology and renewable energy.
- Moving forward with investments while still using Thailand as the main base.
- Adjust your product, pricing, and distribution strategies.
- Restructure the business to increase flexibility.
Meanwhile, most businesses are not rushing into mergers and acquisitions (M&A) transactions in the short term, but will focus on growth through core businesses and expanding into new business opportunities, while managing risks and financial structures appropriately, rather than prioritizing short-term returns for shareholders.
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