Treasurist Fund Port Pro: Investment Plan for the Week of March 9-13, 69. 

Blue group (help indicators)

• The ongoing situation in the Middle East and the price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) closing Friday at 91.26 USD/bbl, up 12.7% from the previous day (data from com), continue to pressure investment sentiment.
• However, the USD Index, which surged to 99.7 at the beginning of the week (when the market started to react to the news), weakened to close the week at 98.9. Meanwhile, the THB/USD, which had weakened from 31 to 32, strengthened slightly to 31.7.
• The THB/USD trend is weakening in line with the rising USD Index. Treasurers recommend shifting from hedging to unhedging exchange rate strategies to save on hedging costs (2-3% per year) and capitalize on exchange rate movements.

Green medium-term trend group (can buy, can continue to hold)

• Stocks in the war and defense sectors have reversed their trend following the situation in the Middle East. They are worth reinvesting in, at the recommended proportion (2.5% of total investment).
• Gold traded within a range of $5,100 – $5,300 USD/Oz, driven by global fund flows as investors assessed the broader safe haven for funds between the USD and gold. However, gold closed the week at $5,172, and the medium-term (and even mid-to-short-term) trend remains fully bullish, making it a viable investment option.
• Japanese, South Korean, and Latin American stocks, global real estate funds, as well as stocks in rare earth minerals, precious metals, and energy-related businesses, remain in an upward trend in the medium and medium-to-short term. These are investments that can be held.
• European and Vietnamese stocks moved lower due to concerns about energy prices. While the medium-term trend remains stable, the short-term outlook is trending downwards. Investors seeking to reduce risk can consider switching 50% of their holdings from these funds into high-quality bond funds that offer returns comparable to bank deposits, and then reinvest the full 100% allocation. Treasurer strives to provide investment advice that strikes a balance between: 1) the opportunity for high returns, 2) risk management tailored to current circumstances, and 3) overall fee burden for investors.

Red medium-term trend group (wait and see) 

• US stocks (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) have continued their decline for the second consecutive month from their all-time high of 7,002 points. Although currently at 6,740 points, a decrease of only 3.7%, the prolonged period of stagnation indicates a potential reversal to a downtrend in the medium and short-term. Two approaches are recommended: 1) Exit the index entirely and diversify back into stocks that are still in an uptrend, in appropriate proportions; or 2) Shift to a high-quality bond fund for safekeeping. Treasurer has assessed the balance between 1) the potential for high returns, 2) managing risk according to the prevailing circumstances, and 3) the overall fee burden for investors.
• Treasurers have recommended a temporary exit from technology stocks, Indian stocks, Chinese stocks, and blockchain stocks, advising a wait-and-see approach before reinvesting.

How to view this information to understand and make full use of it

1. ดู "summarize" "list" To get immediate information on which items have an uptrend in the medium term. which is within the range of investment and see “Trend Cycle Sequence” To understand the change in trends from the short term to the medium term. and understand the details of recommendations in various trend states.. The color of each box is based on the asset type. Stock = blue Commodity = gold REIT (alternative assets) = green
2. ดู “Interesting fund examples” To study the prospectus/Fund Fact Sheet adequately before making an actual investment decision. All of them are funds that can actually be purchased with Treasury Securities.com or you can choose to invest in other funds in the same group as you like.
3. ดู “Early week at the start of the medium-term trend.” To see the beginning of a trend You should pay special attention when the medium-term trend has just changed direction (Reversal) from green to red - from red to green because it means that investors should quickly consider buying/selling from the beginning of the trend.
4. How much should each item be invested in relative to the money you have?
   • The overall picture is based on the allocation of investment proportions by asset type (Asset Allocation) according to the results of the most recent Suitability Test that each person has done himself. For example, if it is an investor who can accept the highest risk. You can have stock funds totaling up to 70% of your overall portfolio. But if you can accept the lowest risk. The proportion of stock funds should not exceed 10% .. and if this table does not yet recommend any type of fund. You can invest in fund types with a lower risk level for the time being. For example, if you haven't recommended any stock funds yet, you can use stock fund proportion quotas. You can invest more in bond funds. This is considered to reduce the risk of the investment portfolio in a situation where stocks are not bright.
   • In the case of the same type of asset, it is recommended to invest in several items at the same time. The approximate proportions can be divided according to the market size (Market Capitalization) of that item. For example, because the Japanese stock market is many times larger than the Vietnam stock market, it may be possible to allocate a higher proportion to a Japanese stock fund than a Vietnam stock fund.
   • If the medium-term trend is orange This means that the trend has a high chance of changing. But still need to wait for confirmation >> In case there is a Temp Up signal (high chance of changing from red to green) if you focus on speed. You can start buying in the proportion of 50% of yourself (read together with Section 4.2). But if you focus on certainty. Still waiting to see. Until it becomes green, then start buying.
     >> In the case of a Temp Down signal (there is a high chance of changing from green to red) if you focus on speed You can sell the quantity down to 50% of yourself (read along with Section 4.2), but if you emphasize certainty, you will still hold the full 100% as before. Until it turns red then sell it all.
5. It is interesting to observe the dependent and inverse relationship between different types of assets. For example, when the USD Bond Yield moves up, it will be seen that the USD Index will move up accordingly. and stocks dropped

Principles and additional explanations

• Social and economic numerical format (Socioeconomics) that is a time series, such as the population of a country going back many years. Sales of an industry over several quarters. usually does not change randomly But it's a trend. (It usually goes up. When it goes down, it often continues to go down) .. Time series format of various security prices going back several days - weeks - months. that is the result of causal factors Socioeconomics Therefore there is a trend as well.. So mathematical calculations can be used to help evaluate the continuation of the trend, that is, is it still up now? Is it still going down now? Is it still going down now? And the important thing is When is reversal occurring? It is a change from down to up - up to down.
• Medium-term outlook >> Look at the picture over several weeks to several months. It is a time frame that gives signals later than the short-term trend. But it's often more accurate. (Up then up, down then down) by using the MACD tool in 2-Week/Weekly Timeframe to help analyze.. which is the medium-term trend. There is no need to change frequently. It can take months or even years as well. It depends on the context of each time period.
• Short-term trend >> Multi-day to multi-week timeframe is a faster signaling timeframe than the medium-term trend, but it can change frequently. It uses the MACD tool in the Week/Weekly Timeframe to help analyze.
• For Treasurist Fund Port Tax, choose long-term trend >> Use MACD tool in Monthly Timeframe to help analyze.
• This data can help show current trends all the way to the short-term future based on the "inertia" of trends, but it cannot tell what the next 2 or 6 months will look like. When the situation in front of you changes I have to adapt quickly.
• Investment decisions/delaying investments according to the trend of Treasurist Fund Traffic Control. If analyzed retrospectively (hindsight analysis), it will not be possible to win against the buy-and-hold model. (buy-and-hold) can be done .. but in the real world, investing is "looking forward" and "adjusting according to the situation" .. a clear example is If in the future there is a world war or a major epidemic. The overall investment trend is definitely downtrend. We still don't see the future (for example, at the beginning of 2563, the world still doesn't have a COVID-19 vaccine. And no one knows when that crisis will subside. But when looking back Everything was clear. Because it happened and it's over), using advice from Treasurist Fund Traffic Control should help investors avoid severe losses in a timely manner. And it will help you know the timing for returning to invest in the next phase as well.
• Interesting funds It is based on the main stock index of that item, such as the Japanese stock list. Will consider the NIKKEI 225 index to see what the trend status is. Then select interesting Japanese stock funds to present. Tech stocks will also consider the NASDAQ Index to see what the trend status is. Then select interesting tech stock funds to present. However, if the medium-term trend is still not conducive to investing Still don't recommend any interesting funds.

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