A recent survey indicates that ASEAN's confidence in the United States continues to decline, both in terms of trade and security, while China regains the advantage in the region's perception amidst uncertainty surrounding US policy.
On April 7, 2569 at 13.06:XNUMX p.m., Nikkei Asia reported that The “State of Southeast Asia 2026” survey. According to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute: People in Southeast Asia are increasingly negative towards the United States, with 29.5% of respondents expecting relations with the U.S. to “worsen” or “worse significantly,” up from 14.2% in 2025.
The report indicates that under Donald Trump's second administration (Trump 2.0), ASEAN's expectations of the United States are likely to be "more cautious and uncertain," with primary concerns stemming from trade policies, sanctions, and the prospect of unilateral economic policies.
In terms of security, although 42.7% of respondents still believe the U.S. is a strategic ally, this figure has decreased from 44.9% the previous year. Meanwhile, 32.3% indicated they were "not very confident or not confident at all," a slight increase.
Saya Kiba is a scholar from Japan. specify that The transactional approach, or the negotiation of US interests, particularly on tariff issues, is being viewed as a “geopolitical risk” by ASEAN.
Although the survey was conducted between January 5 and February 20, a period prior to the US-Iran conflict, it found widespread distrust of the United States, reflecting concerns that had been building up since the Trump administration.
At the national level, these concerns are more apparent, with 21.8% of respondents in the Philippines believing that relations with the United States will deteriorate, up from 8.3%, despite still relying on the US to resolve the South China Sea dispute. Indonesia, meanwhile, saw a much higher proportion at 35.2%, up from 19.1%.
Mark Manantan, a security researcher. specify that The United States appears to be "distracted" from the Asian region as it focuses on conflicts in other regions. Its 2025 security strategy places greater emphasis on the Western hemisphere, resulting in a decreased emphasis on competition with China in Asia.
side Teuku Rezasyah is an Indonesian scholar. Warning that The United States may use its advantage in copper mining concessions in Papua New Guinea, where American companies hold nearly half of the rights, as a geopolitical tool for pressure.
The survey also reflects... "Switch sides" Significantly 52.0% of respondents chose China, while 48.0% chose the United States, a reversal from the 2025 forecast where the US previously held the advantage.
These concerns became even more apparent after Donald Trump called on allies to take responsibility for their own energy security amid tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Julio Amador, analyst. specify that This event reflects Southeast Asia's continued dependence on major powers in the energy supply chain.
"Many ASEAN countries are well aware that the energy transition is not easy, and the Hormuz crisis underscores that energy resources remain dependent on the behavior of global powers." he said
refer : asia.nikkei.com
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