Gulf and European leaders expect the US-Iran deal to take six months and suggest opening the door for negotiations.

Gulf and European leaders expect the US-Iran deal to take six months, proposing an extension of the ceasefire to pave the way for negotiations and urging the opening of Hormuz to avoid energy and food crises.

April 17, 2569 at 08.21:XNUMX, Bloomberg reported that Some Gulf and European leaders believe that reaching a peace agreement between the United States and Iran could take up to six months, and have suggested that both sides extend the ceasefire to cover that period. To pave the way for a successful negotiation, according to officials involved in the discussions.

These leaders want the Strait of Hormuz to reopen as soon as possible to restore energy flow in global markets, while also internally warning that if the situation does not improve next month, it could lead to a global food crisis due to soaring energy and transportation costs.

Officials say that if the war drags on, energy prices are likely to continue rising. Recently, Brent crude oil prices rose by about 4.5% to over $99 per barrel after the market reacted to the news.

From the perspective of the Gulf states, Iran continues to aim for nuclear weapons development despite attacks from the United States and Israel. Therefore, a peace agreement should include conditions prohibiting Iran from enriching uranium and possessing long-range missiles. However, most regional leaders still do not want a return to conflict and prefer the United States to pursue a diplomatic approach.

The governments of countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain have yet to comment officially. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates cited an earlier statement calling for the unconditional opening of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive solution addressing issues such as nuclear weapons, missiles, drones, and armed groups linked to Iran.

The conflict, which began in late February with attacks by the United States and Israel, has left significant damage in the Middle East. Iran retaliated with attacks on both Israel and Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, impacting cities, ports, and energy infrastructure.

Although oil prices began to slow down after the ceasefire agreement in early April, they are still more than 35% higher compared to before the war.

Experts like Rob Macaire, former British ambassador to Iran, believe that the chances of reaching a short-term agreement are limited. He sees Donald Trump's positive stance as partly reflecting concerns about the impact on financial markets, and points out that the key issue is not just whether negotiations will succeed, but rather reducing the risk of a return to military conflict.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy transport route, remains largely closed, impacting the economies of Gulf Arab countries which are unable to export oil, liquefied natural gas, and industrial goods as usual.

The report also stated that the United States and Iran are considering extending the ceasefire by another two weeks to allow for further negotiations. However, there is no guarantee that the two sides will be able to reach an agreement on either the ceasefire or a long-term peace deal.

Key obstacles include Iran's nuclear and missile programs, the easing of sanctions, and the situation in Lebanon involving Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran.

However, it is assessed that there may be a solution to the nuclear issue, such as allowing Iran to allow inspections and temporarily suspending uranium enrichment, while the United States might ease some sanctions. But the issues of security and controlling the Strait of Hormuz remain complex and difficult to resolve.

Furthermore, Trump's announcement of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon could be another factor contributing to a more conducive atmosphere for negotiations between the United States and Iran in the coming period.

refer : bloomberg.com

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