Goldman Sachs indicates that the S&P 500 index has risen sharply but unevenly, and forecasts EPS growth of 4% by 2570.

Goldman Sachs indicates that the S&P 500 index has risen sharply but unevenly, particularly in energy and technology sectors. They forecast EPS growth of 4% by 2570 amidst risks from energy costs and global economic uncertainty.

On April 20, 2026, at 4:22 PM, Bloomberg News reported that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyzed that the S&P 500 Index hit a new all-time high, partly driven by upward revisions in earnings forecasts by analysts in certain industry sectors, and not a widespread market-wide surge.

The strategy team led by Ben Snider noted that while earnings per share (EPS) estimates for S&P 500 companies for this year and next have risen by about 4% since the beginning of the year, this increase is concentrated primarily in energy and technology stocks, driven by soaring energy prices due to the Iran-Iran conflict and a resurgence in investment in artificial intelligence (AI).

Interestingly, only two companies, Micron Technology Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp., have contributed more than 60% to their 2026 EPS estimates since the conflict began, while most companies in the index have shown virtually no adjustments to their earnings estimates recently.

Snider noted that the upward revisions in earnings forecasts in recent weeks have been driven by only a few stocks, reflecting the fact that the market recovery is not yet widespread.

Although the U.S. stock market closed at a record high on Friday, marking its strongest week of 2569, Goldman Sachs points out that the rally lacks market breadth. The indicator of the distribution of stock gains has fallen to its lowest level in decades, with the exception of the dot-com bubble and mid-2566.

The next thing to watch is whether the first-quarter earnings results will help to spread upward earnings revisions and buying interest in the market, especially progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for cyclical stocks.

Meanwhile, the earnings season started strong, with approximately 81% of large U.S. companies reporting better-than-expected profits, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The banking sector played a prominent role, with companies like JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., and Goldman Sachs generating record trading revenues.

Goldman Sachs forecasts S&P 500 EPS growth of 12% this year, close to the overall strategist view but lower than the bottom-up estimate of 18%. Risks include both downsides from weak consumer demand and higher costs from war, and upsides from long-term investment in AI and productivity improvements.

Reference: bloomberg.com

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