Analysts suggest that the "Iran war" might end with a temporary agreement, despite the country suffering heavy losses and refusing to surrender.
Analysts suggest that the "Iran war" may end with a temporary agreement, merely a short-term truce. The main point of conflict remains unresolved, and despite Iran's heavy losses, it refuses to surrender.
June 4, 2569 at 04.33:XNUMX a.m., Reuters reported that The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran began with the goal of pressuring and diminishing the power of the Islamic Republic. We may be entering a crucial turning point, as both sides begin to move closer to a temporary agreement aimed at reducing tensions and restoring economic stability.
however Diplomats, officials, and analysts in the region. I think that The agreement currently under discussion is likely to be only a temporary truce rather than a permanent end to the conflict, as the core issues that underpin the conflict remain intact.
Despite suffering heavy damage from the war, both economically and in terms of military infrastructure, Iran's domestic power system has not weakened as the West had expected. On the contrary, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has gained even more political and security influence.
Dennis Ross, a former senior U.S. diplomat. said Despite significant tactical military successes, virtually no true strategic achievements have been achieved, and no problems remain completely resolved.
Sources familiar with the negotiations indicate that the framework agreement under discussion could allow Iran to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping route, in exchange for economic relief for Iran, through the release of frozen assets abroad or the easing of some sanctions.
For the Iranian government, such an agreement is seen as an opportunity to buy time, revive the economy, and reduce domestic pressure without having to back down on sensitive issues such as its nuclear or missile programs.
While President Donald Trump wants a deal that can be used as a political achievement before the midterm elections in November, particularly on the issues of controlling Iran's nuclear program and highly enriched uranium stockpiles.
However, many experts believe that the areas where both sides can compromise remain limited.
Alan Ayre, a former US diplomat and expert on Iran. said What Trump wants politically and what Iran is willing to accept may seem similar, but in reality, they have very little in common.
Despite progress in negotiations, the core factors leading to war remain largely unchanged. Iran continues to refuse to end uranium enrichment, while the United States is unwilling to provide security guarantees to Tehran. Israel continues to view Iran as a threat to its existence.
Iran also believes that defending itself against future attacks requires maintaining its missile arsenal, regional alliance network, and the capability to impact energy exports in the Persian Gulf.
Sources in the region revealed that: What Trump might get from these negotiations is just a short-term ceasefire, vague rhetoric about the nuclear program, and the reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran continues to exert influence over the route.
Analysts also note that the United States appears to be downplaying its demands for the dismantling of Iran's missile program, despite it being a key issue for Israel and the Gulf states.
Iran is demanding $1.2 billion, while Israel remains concerned.
One of Iran's key conditions is the lifting of frozen assets worth approximately $12,000 billion, which Tehran views as crucial to any agreement.
However, analysts warn that releasing such funds could lead to comparisons between Trump and the 2558 nuclear deal under former President Barack Obama, which Trump heavily criticized before withdrawing the U.S. from in 2561.
From an expert's perspective, the conflict between Israel and Iran may only be entering a temporary pause, not an end. Dennis Ross specify that For Israel and Iran, one chapter of the war may be drawing to a close, but the conflict itself remains.
while David Schenker from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. I think that If a temporary agreement were to be reached, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could gain even more power within Iran.
"In the past, they were the power behind the country's leaders, but today they have become the real power in the country." Schenker said.
refer : www.reuters.com
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