Real estate sector faces continued challenges in 2026 as foreigners sell off assets and condo purchases plummet by 20%, the first drop since COVID-19.

Warning signs for Thai real estate: The Thailand Real Estate Information Center (TRI) reveals that nationwide property transfers plummeted by 17% in the first quarter, totaling only 1.3 billion baht. The Bangkok-Metropolitan area market suffered the hardest, declining by 35%, following a surge in purchases from Chinese and Myanmar buyers. Kasikorn Research Center predicts negative factors from the Middle East and the global economy will force an overall contraction for the year, the worst in 5 years.

5 June 2569 – Data from the Real Estate Information Center and Kasikorn Research Center. Reports indicate that the condominium market for foreigners in Thailand is facing a slowdown, with a noticeable decline in the first quarter of the year. The research center predicts that global economic turmoil and international conflicts will accelerate the overall negative growth for 2026, the most severe in five years.

Analyzing Q1/2569 Statistics: Chinese and Myanmar Investment Drags Down Transfers in Bangkok, While Provincial Areas Receive Support from Europe.

The Real Estate Information Center reported that the index of condominium ownership transfers to foreigners nationwide during the first quarter of 2026 showed an overall contraction of 17 percent compared to the same period of the previous year (YoY), or only 3,241 units were transferred. This represents a total value of 1.3 billion baht, a decrease of 18 percent (YoY), with an average price per unit of 4.15 million baht.

A deeper analysis of specific areas, according to the Real Estate Information Center report, reveals the following interesting details:

• Bangkok and surrounding areas Property transfers plummeted 35% (YoY) to just 1,239 units, valued at 6.5 billion baht (a 35% decrease). The average price per unit dropped to 5.28 million baht, as major buyers from China and Myanmar, who together account for 60% of the Bangkok market, experienced their sharpest declines since the post-COVID era.
• Provincial areas Overall, property transfers decreased by only 1% (YoY), but in terms of value, they grew against the trend by 10% (YoY), totaling 6.9 billion baht. This was due to a 10.5% increase in the average purchase price per unit, reaching 3.46 million baht. Although the Chonburi market slowed down, it was supported by the tourism market, particularly Phuket, due to the gradual completion of various projects. The main driving force was investment from European groups such as Russia, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

Negative factors in the second half of the year: Middle East monsoon and economic slowdown will severely impact overall markets, leading to their sharpest decline in 5 years by 69.

Regarding the outlook for the real estate industry for the remainder of 2569, Kasikorn Research Center estimates that the foreign condominium market will continue to experience a slowdown due to increasingly severe negative factors and economic challenges, particularly the declining purchasing power from China and Myanmar, which are the main markets.

“The foreign condominium market is expected to remain sluggish due to increasing negative factors, particularly declining purchasing power from key markets like China and Myanmar. Furthermore, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, coupled with a global economic slowdown, are expected to impact confidence and purchasing decisions among other foreign buyers as well.”

Given the various risk factors mentioned above... Kasikorn Research Center has therefore forecasted the overall real estate economic index for 2569. that The transfer of condominium ownership to foreigners in Thailand for the entire year is projected to contract by up to 20 percent. This decline would mark the first annual drop and the first contraction in five years since the end of the pandemic.

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