SpaceX: What Investors Should Know About the Upcoming IPO of the Giant.
Morningstar has begun its analysis of SpaceX ahead of its massive IPO, estimating its fair value at $7.8 billion. It views its rocket and Starlink satellite internet businesses as key competitive advantages, while the AI business remains highly uncertain and could pose a risk to the company's future value.
Morning Star An investment research firm revealed that... An analysis of SpaceX prior to its initial public offering (IPO). By stating that The company's stock may be overvalued at its initial stage, and long-term investors may have a better opportunity to buy at a more reasonable price after the company goes public.
Morningstar estimates SpaceX's fair value at $7.8 billion, assigning a "narrow" economic moat. This is attributed primarily to its rocket launch and satellite communications businesses, driven by low costs, efficiency from research and development investments, and economies of scale.
However, Morningstar views the artificial intelligence (AI) business that SpaceX recently acquired as highly uncertain and potentially a devaluation factor, which is why the overall competitive advantage assessment remains modest.
SpaceX's core business.
SpaceX was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk and designs, manufactures, and provides reusable rocket launch services for public and private clients.
Since 2019, the company has been building its own satellite communications network under the Starlink brand to provide broadband internet and wireless communications services worldwide. Meanwhile, in early 2026, the company acquired the founder's AI business, including the Grok AI model, the Colossus data center, and the X social network, bringing them under its umbrella.
The key strength is "low cost".
Morningstar states that SpaceX's strength lies in its leadership in low-cost space transportation, with the company accounting for more than 80% of the total volume launched into Earth orbit and capable of reducing the cost per kilogram of satellite launch by more than 95% compared to previous eras.
A key factor is the development of reusable rocket technology, particularly the Falcon 9, as well as the new Starship rocket program. Morningstar believes that if successfully scaled up by 2029, this will reduce costs, increase payload capacity, and open up new business opportunities in the future.
By 2025, SpaceX will account for over 51% of all global rocket launches and 83% of all mass sent into orbit from Earth, significantly surpassing its major competitors.
The share value as estimated by Morningstar.
Morningstar used a discounted cash flow model to estimate the value, placing approximately $6.11 billion in the space and communications business, while the AI business added another weighted average of about $1.7 billion, bringing the total value to $7.8 billion.
Analysts say the valuation is approximately 45-48% lower than the latest private market valuation, making it highly likely that the stock will be considered overvalued when it begins trading on the stock exchange.
Stock trends after IPO.
Morningstar suggests that while SpaceX stock may initially receive support from limited trading volume, demand for AI-themed investments, and the potential for a rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, downward pressure could emerge as existing shareholders and employees gradually sell their shares after the lockdown period ends.
Therefore, long-term investors who want to participate in SpaceX's growth may have a better opportunity to invest at a price with a greater safety margin after the IPO boom has subsided.
SpaceX announced its IPO price at $135 per share, aiming to raise up to $7.5 billion, the highest IPO figure in US history. This would boost the company's valuation to $1.75 trillion and place it among the top 10 most valuable publicly traded companies in the US.
In addition, the company will officially finalize its IPO price on June 11th, before its shares begin trading on the Nasdaq stock exchange on June 12th.
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