Globlex Securities forecasts the Thai stock market to fluctuate between 1,550 and 1,600 points this week, with attention focused on the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.

Globlex Securities forecasts the Thai stock market to fluctuate within the 1,550-1,600 point range this week, lacking new catalysts. Investors are watching the US-Iran ceasefire agreement closely, despite positive factors from US economic expansion and S&P maintaining Thailand's credit rating at BBB+. They recommend accumulating stocks selected for inclusion in the SET50 and SET100 indices in the second half of 2569.

22 June 2569 Ms. Wilawanee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director, Globlex Securities Co., Ltd. or GBS Regarding the direction of the Thai stock market this week, the index is likely to fluctuate in a sideways pattern, with an estimated trading range of 1,550-1,600 points.

The index has been unable to firmly break above the key resistance level of 1,600 points due to continued investor uncertainty regarding geopolitical conflicts, particularly the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.

However, the market still has positive factors supporting the index, including the GDPNow model, which still forecasts that the US economy will expand by 3% in the second quarter of 2026, accelerating from 1.6% in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, domestically, S&P Global Ratings maintained Thailand's credit rating at BBB+, reflecting confidence in the economy and government policies, as well as the three consecutive days of declining domestic retail fuel prices, which positively impacts energy costs for businesses.

Meanwhile, there are also negative factors putting pressure on investment that need to be closely monitored. Data from CME Group's FedWatch indicates that investors give approximately a 50% probability that the Federal Reserve (FED) will raise interest rates by 0.25% as early as September, and a 20% probability that it will rise by as much as 0.50%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) voted 7-2 to keep its policy interest rate at 3.75%, in line with expectations, but issued a warning that the war in the Middle East is driving up energy costs, increasing uncertainty about the UK's inflation outlook.

Here are the key factors to watch in the coming period. Domestic factors These include the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting no. 3/2026 on June 24, followed by a press release on automotive production and export figures from the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and the international trade situation from the Ministry of Commerce in the fourth week, before the close of the second quarter 2026 financial statement period on June 30. In the fifth week, there will be a press release on the Industrial Production Index (MPI), as well as reports on the economic, fiscal, and regional situation.

As for foreign factors These include the announcement of China's LPR interest rate on June 22nd, along with the EU's preliminary consumer confidence report. Following this, on June 23rd, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reports for the manufacturing and services sectors of Japan, the EU, and the US will be released. Finally, on June 24th, the US will report its Q1 2569 current account balance, new home sales, and weekly oil inventories.

Mr. Wacharen Jongyanyong, Director of Research at Globlex Securities. During periods of market volatility, we recommend that investors focus on investing in stocks with specific positive catalysts, especially those stocks that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has announced will be included in its index calculations in the second half of 2569.

Recommended stocks for speculative trading in response to index adjustments include those included in the SET50 index (BCP, MRDIYT, TFG, THAI) and the SET100 index (MRDIYT, THAI, THCOM, WHAUP). Institutional investor inflows are expected in these stocks. However, investors are advised to be cautious of selling pressure resulting from the reduction in weighting of stocks removed from the SET50 (BTS, CBG, CENTEL, SAWAD) and SET100 (JAS, JMART, SISB, SJWD) indices.

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