Globlex Securities forecasts the Thai stock index to be between 1,520 and 1,580 points this week, keeping an eye on oil prices and Hormuz, and highlights six export-oriented stocks.
Globlex Securities predicts the Thai stock index will face intraday volatility this week. They noted that US PCE figures showed expected expansion, along with strong Q1 GDP growth, but the market is under pressure from rising global crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Thai exports in May expanded by 10.6%. They project the index to range between 1,520 and 1,580 points and recommend an investment strategy focusing on export-oriented stocks with continued growth, highlighting KCE, HANA, CPF, GFPT, AAI, and ITC.
29 June 2569 Ms. Wilasinee Bunmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director, Globlex Securities Co., Ltd. GBS (Global Trading Services) revealed its outlook for the Thai stock market this week, stating that the SET index is likely to remain volatile, benefiting positively from the US announcement of a 4.1% year-on-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, in line with analysts' expectations.
However, the overall investment climate continues to face pressure from all sides, particularly from rising global crude oil prices, which impacts energy costs and investor sentiment. Therefore, the index is estimated to range between 1,520 and 1,580 points.
However, considering the economic factors, the US side is receiving strong support from robust economic figures. These include the third estimate of first-quarter GDP growth at 2.1%, significantly higher than previous estimates and the 1.6% forecast by analysts. This is coupled with the strength of the labor market, reflected in the low number of initial jobless claims, which fell to 215,000, below expectations.
Furthermore, from a geopolitical perspective, the US attack targeting coastal surveillance and monitoring centers in southern Iran—which the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated violated the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and the United Nations Charter—demonstrates that the situation on the ground appears to remain unresolved and is a development being closely watched by the world.
Meanwhile, domestic factors in Thailand are also showing positive signs, with the Ministry of Finance exceeding its revenue target by over 40 billion baht during the first eight months of the fiscal year, reaching 1.77 trillion baht. This was largely due to dividend payments from the Vayupak One mutual fund and increased value-added tax collection from the Revenue Department and the Excise Department, which helps strengthen the country's economic stability in the short term.
It is believed that the Thai stock market cannot yet be complacent against various opposing forces, as there are negative factors that are constantly dragging it down. In particular, Thailand's export sector in May, according to data from the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, expanded by 10.6%, totaling approximately 1.09 trillion baht. Although the cumulative figure for the first five months still showed strong growth of 17%, the growth in May was a noticeable slowdown compared to the previous month's high of 23.1%, and was also below market expectations.
Furthermore, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are exacerbating concerns about global energy supply. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a stern warning that all ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz must obtain official permission, otherwise they will face retaliatory measures. Combined with internal instability within OPEC, stemming from Iraq's signals that it might consider withdrawing from membership if its crude oil production quotas are not increased—a situation that occurred just months after the UAE's withdrawal—these factors are inevitably driving up global oil prices and putting downward pressure on global production costs.
Furthermore, investors need to closely monitor key economic figures and events both domestically and internationally. Regarding domestic factors, in week 4, the Federation of Thai Industries is scheduled to announce automotive and parts production and export figures. Following this, June 30th marks the end of the second quarter accounting period, which may involve closing price adjustments. In week 5, the Office of Industrial Economics will release the industrial production index, along with reports on fiscal and regional economic conditions from the Fiscal Policy Office.
Meanwhile, key international factors to watch include Japan's retail sales and unemployment figures, China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both manufacturing and services sectors, consumer confidence indices for both the European Union and the United States, as well as US labor market figures and job openings. The most significant international event is the mid-July testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, outlining his semi-annual monetary policy and economic outlook to Congress, which will signal the future direction of global interest rates.
side Mr. Wacharen Jongyanyong, Director of Research at Globlex Securities. Investment Strategy Recommendation: During periods of stock market volatile and limited volatility, focus on selecting individual stocks with strong specific positive factors. This is especially true for export-oriented businesses with robust fundamentals and consistent sales growth in May. Our research team has selected promising stocks for accumulation, including those in the electronics components sector (KCE and HANA), large-scale agricultural and processed food companies (CPF and GFPT), and promising innovative food and pet food companies (AAI and ITC).
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