The Fiscal Policy Office is monitoring geopolitical conflicts and their impact on the production costs of Thai industries.

The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) revealed that Thailand's economy in May 2569 was primarily driven by the tourism sector and continued export growth for the 23rd consecutive month. It noted strong stability, with high foreign exchange reserves of US$2.87 billion, but cautioned against focusing on geopolitical risks that could impact the cost of Thai industrial production.

29 June 2569 Mr. Pisit Puaphan, Director of the Macroeconomic Policy Division. As a spokesperson for the Fiscal Policy Office revealed, the Thai economy in May 2569 was supported by the expansion of the tourism sector, while merchandise exports continued to grow, albeit at a slower rate. However, it is still necessary to monitor the industrial production situation, global oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts, which could impact supply chains, production costs, and Thailand's economic growth. A summary of the details is as follows:

Economic indicators for private consumption There are signs of continued expansion compared to the same period last year, especially in consumption of durable goods. The number of newly registered passenger cars in May 2569 increased by 15.2% compared to the same period last year.

And the number of newly registered motorcycles in May 2569 increased by 2.9% compared to the same period last year, consistent with real farmer income in May 2569, which increased by 2.3% compared to the same period last year.

However, at the time...The consumer confidence index for May 2569. The index decreased to 49.5 from 50.6 in the previous month, pressured by consumer concerns over geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, as well as rising global oil prices, which could impact Thailand's economic growth and increase the cost of living for citizens.

Economic indicators for private investment There are signs of stabilization compared to the same period last year, with private sector investment in machinery and equipment, reflected in the volume of capital goods imports (preliminary figures) in May 2569, increasing by 19.6% compared to the same period last year and increasing by 0.9% compared to the previous month after seasonal adjustment.

While the number of newly registered commercial vehicles in May 2569 decreased by -14.7% compared to the same period last year and decreased by -3.8% compared to the previous month after adjusting for seasonal effects.

สำหรับPrivate sector investment in the construction sector. This is reflected in cement sales volume in May 2569, which increased by 3.9% compared to the same period last year but decreased by -1.3% compared to the previous month after adjusting for seasonal effects, and real estate transaction taxes in May 2569, which decreased by -8.6% compared to the same period last year and decreased by -0.6% compared to the previous month after adjusting for seasonal effects.

The value of merchandise exports continues to expand. However, the rate of growth slowed compared to the same period last year. The total value of merchandise exports in US dollars in May 2569 was US$34,333.1 million, an increase of 10.6% compared to the same period last year, marking the 23rd consecutive month of growth.

And if we consider only the value of goods exports excluding oil and gold-related products and strategic materials, we find that it expanded by 8.6%, driven by the growth of goods in the electronics and plastic pellet categories. In addition, fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruits, and pet food also showed growth.

While exports of rubber, sugar, and automobiles, equipment and parts decreased, when considering the value of exports of goods classified by Thailand's main trading partners, it was found that they increased, especially in the US, ASEAN (5), European Union (15) and Japan markets. However, the Indochina (4) and India markets decreased.

Thai economic indicators on the supply side In particular, the tourism service sector expanded compared to the same period last year. In May 2569, the tourism service sector saw a total of 2.35 million foreign tourists entering Thailand, an increase of 3.5% compared to the same period last year and a 5.9% increase compared to the previous month after adjusting for seasonal effects.

Domestic tourism saw 24.8 million Thai visitors in May 2569, an increase of 2.2% compared to the same period last year and a 2.4% increase compared to the previous month after seasonal adjustment.

Meanwhile, the agricultural sector, as reflected in the agricultural production index, showed a decrease of -0.3% in May 2569 compared to the same period last year and a decrease of -1.1% compared to the previous month after seasonal adjustment. This decline was driven by decreases in key crop categories such as oil palm and cassava. However, rubber, corn, and fruit production increased compared to the previous month.

For the industrial sector, this is reflected in the industrial confidence index. In May 2569, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Thailand decreased to 84.7 from 85.3 in the previous month, due to business operators' concerns about the slowdown in the domestic economy and higher production costs. The PMI in May 2569 stood at 52.6, down from 52.7 in the previous month. However, the index remained above 50.0, reflecting continued expansion in industrial production.

economic stabilityThis remains within acceptable limits, reflected in the headline inflation rate of 2.79% in May 2569, while the core inflation rate was 0.92%. The public debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of April 2569 stood at 66.6%, which remains within the fiscal discipline framework set forth in the Fiscal Discipline Act of 2561.

External stability remains strong and can withstand risks from global economic volatility, as reflected in international reserves remaining at a high level of US$287.5 billion at the end of May 2569.

The global economy continues to expand. This is reflected in the Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May 2569, which stood at 51.8 points. The index value, above 50.0 points, indicates that the global economy continues to expand.

The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May 2569 was 52.6 points, unchanged from the previous month. The Global Service PMI for May 2569 was 51.3 points, a slight increase from the previous month's 51.2 points, indicating continued expansion in the service sector.

The tourism sector is showing signs of slowing down. Due to pressure from the conflict in the Middle East, policy interest rates in various countries are trending toward tightening to combat inflation. Geopolitical tensions, including retaliatory tariffs by the United States, also need to be closely monitored.

The overall condition of the Thai financial market has recently improved. The equity market also received support from foreign capital flows. As of June 24, 2569, the trading value in the Thai stock market was approximately 114,176.66 million baht. Domestic individual investors had net purchases of 11,218.12 million baht, and considering the overall picture since the beginning of June (cumulative data from June 1–24, 2569), this group of investors has a net buying position totaling 372.52 million baht. Looking at the year-to-date (YTD) picture, this group of investors has a net buying position of 37,676.11 million baht. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors had net purchases of 3,840.54 million baht, and since the beginning of June, this group of investors has a net buying position totaling 5,948.81 million baht.

However, overall, since the beginning of the year, there has been a net sales of -61,351.51 million baht. Securities companies' accounts recorded a net sales of -249.03 million baht on that day. Meanwhile, since the beginning of the month, there has been a net purchase of 2,175.37 million baht, and the cumulative total since the beginning of the year stands at 11,854.73 million baht.

For foreign investors. A net selling position in the Thai stock market was recorded on June 24, 2569, at -14,809.63 million baht. Since the beginning of June, foreign investors have had a net selling position totaling -8,496.69 million baht. However, considering the overall picture since the beginning of the year, foreign investors still have a net buying position in the Thai stock market of 11,820.66 million baht, reflecting the significant role of foreign investors in the direction of the Thai stock market.

For the bond market It was found that on June 24, 2569, foreign investors had net purchases of 1,530 million baht, while since the beginning of June, investors in the bond market have had a net selling position totaling -24,942.34 million baht.

Overall, considering the picture since the beginning of the year, investors in the bond market continue to hold a net buying position totaling 21,207.81 million baht. This reflects confidence in Thai government bonds as a stable asset amidst continued global economic uncertainty and the monetary policy transitions of major economies.

“The Thai economy in May 2569 was supported by the expansion of the tourism sector, while merchandise exports continued to grow, albeit at a slower rate. However, it is still necessary to monitor the industrial production situation, global oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts, which could impact supply chains, production costs, and Thailand's economic growth.”

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