Economists have upgraded Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 69 to 7.3%, boosted by the chip market and a surge in FDI, even though the central bank still faces the challenge of controlling inflation while stimulating the economy.
On July 9, 2569 at 09.00:XNUMX p.m., Bloomberg News reported that Economists have revised upward their forecasts for Vietnam's economic growth in 2569, along with higher inflation estimates. The strong demand for electronics, continued expansion of foreign direct investment (FDI), and robust domestic demand are seen as key drivers of the economy for the remainder of the year.
A Bloomberg survey of economists conducted between July 3-8. Found that The median forecast for Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2569 has been revised upward to 7.3% from the previous estimate, while the inflation forecast has increased to 4.8% from 4.3%. The forecast for the State Bank of Vietnam's policy interest rate at the end of 2569 remains at 4.5%.
This upward revision of estimates comes after the Vietnamese economy showed continued strength, with second-quarter GDP expanding by 8.39% year-on-year, accelerating from 7.94% in the first quarter. The industrial and construction sectors were the main drivers, growing by 9.81% in the first half of the year, driven by expansion in the electronics industry and infrastructure investment. As a result, some economists have revised their full-year growth forecast upwards to 8%.
Han Teng Chua, Senior Economist at DBS Bank. said The bank has revised its 2569 GDP forecast upward to 8%, citing key drivers such as export-oriented manufacturing boosted by the electronics industry, strong foreign direct investment, and resilient domestic consumption as factors that will continue to support the economy in the coming months.
He also stated that The easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with the reopening of shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, helps mitigate the risks associated with higher production costs, supply chain disruptions, and slowing foreign demand.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains a key driver of the economy. Actual FDI disbursed in the first half of the year increased by 11.2% compared to the previous year, reaching US$13,030 billion. Meanwhile, the value of new investment projects approved (Pledged FDI) surged by 61% to US$34,650 billion.
However, a sharp increase in imports of capital goods and semiconductor components resulted in Vietnam recording a record trade deficit of $5,210 billion in May.
Meanwhile, the State Bank of Vietnam faces the challenge of balancing economic growth with inflation control, as bank lending expanded by 7.41% at the end of June, compared to a full-year target of 15%.
Consumer inflation accelerated to 5.6% in May, higher than the central bank's forecast of 5.5%, before slowing to 4.69% in June.
Pham Thanh Ha, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam. specify that The central bank will continue to support lending to the manufacturing sector, while simultaneously managing inflationary pressures from high energy prices. It is also prepared to intervene in the exchange rate market to maintain the stability of the dong amidst volatility from external factors.
refer : www.bloomberg.com
Read news related to All Asian economic situations can be found here.
