The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its 2569 forecast for the Asia-Pacific economy to 4.9% from 5.1%, following the prolonged conflict in the Middle East which has impacted energy prices and supply chains across the region. However, the ADB maintains a positive outlook on Thailand and Vietnam.
On July 8, 2569 at 22.30:XNUMX a.m., Nikkei Asia reported that The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its forecast for economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific in 2569 to 4.9% from 5.1% estimated in April.
They stated that the prolonged war in the Middle East continues to impact the region's energy markets, supply chains, and production costs, while maintaining their 2570 growth forecast at 5.1%.
In the latest Asian Development Outlook report, ADB... specify that The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which began on February 28, resulted in a loss of up to 10 million barrels of oil per day from the global market during the crisis. This had a shockwave through the energy sector, and although oil prices subsequently declined, the impact rippled through global supply chains, leading to higher production costs and a slowdown in economic activity.
ADB specify that The prolonged conflict, longer than initially anticipated in April, could leave persistent scars on global energy markets and is a key reason for downward revisions to the region's growth forecasts.
For Southeast Asia, the ADB has lowered its growth forecast for 2569 to 4.6% from 4.7%. While the overall picture for the region remained relatively unchanged, some countries were hit hardest, particularly the Philippines, whose GDP forecast was revised down to 3.8% from 4.4% due to weak private consumption, delayed investment, and higher commodity prices. Cambodia's forecast was also revised down to 4.1% from 4.5%.
Conversely, the ADB maintained its growth estimates for Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. part Brunei The forecast has been revised upwards due to the positive impact of higher energy prices, which is beneficial to oil-exporting countries.
สำหรับ China The ADB maintained its growth forecast, viewing strong exports and infrastructure investment as offsetting weaker domestic consumption. Despite a slowdown in the second quarter, government stimulus measures and investment are expected to support growth in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shares a similar view. The economies of the ASEAN-5 group—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—are projected to slow to 4.1% in 2569 from 4.5% in 2568, before recovering to 4.3% in 2570. Higher energy costs and weak external demand remain key pressures.
However, the IMF points out that the impact of the energy crisis was not uniform across all countries. Countries within the global technology supply chain were less affected, driven by continued demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors. The IMF identified South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand as major exporters of AI-related hardware.
As a result, the IMF has revised upward its economic forecasts for many countries that benefit from the technological cycle. โดย Vietnam The GDP forecast for 2569 has been revised upwards by 0.4 percentage points to 7.5%, while... Thailand The forecast was revised up by 0.4 percentage points to 1.9%, driven by technology exports, investment, and the expansion of data center businesses.
In South Asia, the ADB forecasts growth to slow to 6.0% in 2569 and 6.7% in 2570. Due to falling oil prices, shipping costs, and uncertainty regarding labor income in the Persian Gulf countries, India's growth forecast has been revised down to 6.6% from 6.9%.
ADB Also, a warning that... Inflationary pressures in Asia and the Pacific are likely to persist as higher energy and fertilizer costs take time to be passed on to food prices, while higher natural gas costs will gradually be reflected in electricity prices.Household gas prices in the coming months will depend on each country's energy pricing structure and regulatory measures.
While the ADB largely maintains its 2570 economic forecast, believing that economic activity will begin to recover, it warns that key risks remain from escalating conflicts in the Middle East and uncertainty in global energy markets, which could impact Asia's economic recovery in the longer term.
refer : asia.nikkei.com
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