The Bank of Thailand continues its efforts; cash deposits exceeding 5 million baht must have their source explained starting in Q4/69, and it will control non-performing loans (BNPLs) by the end of the year.

The Bank of Thailand indicates that the Thai economy is more resilient than expected, and inflation is projected to be no more than 2.8% in 2026. The bank reveals that monetary policy will focus more on supporting the economy, but lowering interest rates below 1% will be difficult. Measures to tighten controls on cash deposits exceeding 5 million baht are being prepared for the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank anticipates that measures to control loan-to-value (BNPLs) will be finalized by the end of 2026.

11 Jul 2569 Mr. Vitai Ratanakorn, Governor of the Bank of Thailand revealed in The 2569 Advanced Economic Journalists' Capacity Building Program, themed "Opportunities and Survival in a Volatile Economic Era Amidst Global Geopolitical Conflicts," with the topic "Thai Monetary Policy in Responding to War and the Global Financial Crisis," is organized by the Economic Journalists Association. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) stated that the Thai economy currently demonstrates better resilience than anticipated. During periods of high energy prices, including oil and raw material costs, the Thai economy did not experience the deepest downturn initially feared, and was able to find alternative sources of raw materials. Therefore, the BOT forecasts GDP growth of 2.3% in 2569, up from the previously projected 1.5%.

"The Thai economy, at 2.3%, is not in a state of collapse, but overall it is considered more resilient and has recovered better than initially estimated at the start of the war."

Inflation peaked in June 2569 at 2.4%, lower than previously predicted. Therefore, inflation in 2569 is expected to remain below 2.8%, due to stabilizing global oil prices and a high base effect from the previous year. Meanwhile, monthly inflation is not expected to surge to 4-4.5% as previously projected.

"Considering overall inflation, fresh food accounts for 17% of the total, energy 12%, and together they account for approximately 30%. When energy prices are high, inflation rises immediately. Therefore, when energy and oil prices increase food costs, Thai inflation rises and falls rapidly."

Regarding monetary policy in the present era. The Bank of Thailand has placed greater emphasis on supporting the economy, shifting from its previous focus solely on price stability. Therefore, it currently employs an accommodative monetary policy. However, lowering the policy interest rate beyond 1% is now difficult, as Thailand's current rate is among the lowest in the world. Further reductions could pose a negative risk to the financial system.

Regarding the question of why the Bank of Thailand hasn't implemented measures to inject money into the system or carried out quantitative easing (QE)... Mr. Witai revealed that injecting money into the system must take into consideration where the money released by the Bank of Thailand will go. The Thai economic system is dependent on the financial system; therefore, quantitative easing (QE) would cause money to flow back into the central bank without stimulating the economy.

"In the past, society may have had high expectations of the Bank of Thailand, but the Bank of Thailand doesn't have as many tools as people think. Theoretically, there may be many tools, but in the context of Thailand, only a few are effective. The main tool is the policy interest rate."

Mr. Witai revealed that in the past, Thailand's GDP has declined every time a economic shock occurred, from an average growth rate of 7% to 5%, and currently only 2%. The main reasons stem from structural problems, including declining competitiveness, a lack of new industries, an aging society, and inequality that makes it easier and cheaper for large businesses to access capital than for smaller businesses, as well as the gray economy.

Therefore, to address this issue, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is currently employing more targeted measures, particularly those related to shady capital. Measures already implemented include controlling cash withdrawals exceeding 5 million baht, resulting in an approximately 35% reduction in large cash withdrawal values. Meanwhile, in October 2026 or the fourth quarter of 2026, the BOT plans to begin implementing measures to control cash deposits exceeding 5 million baht, as well as restricting the exchange of high-value banknotes for smaller denominations, such as the exchange of 10 million baht worth of 1,000-baht banknotes for 100-baht or 500-baht banknotes. Depositors will be required to verify the source of the funds to prevent shady capital from entering the system.

Furthermore, the Bank of Thailand has implemented measures to control gold purchases via applications due to their impact on the Thai baht. Following the enforcement of these measures, the amount of gold withdrawn has decreased from 4,000 kilograms per month previously to approximately 700 kilograms per month. Meanwhile, the correlation between the gold price and the Thai baht has decreased from 0.8 to 0.4 – 0.45.

The Bank of Thailand is currently in discussions with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate USDT trading due to unusually high trading volumes. Analytics suggest the trading was being used to evade identity verification during normal money transfer processes.

Regarding horse racing accounts and transactions related to online gambling money, thousands of accounts exhibiting suspicious behavior have already been closed.

Mr. Witai revealed that the Bank of Thailand is accelerating the development of a central standard for regulating Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) businesses, which are growing rapidly, especially among young people. However, regulating BNPLs is difficult and complex because the Bank of Thailand does not have direct authority to order online platforms, as they are not financial institutions. Therefore, it must regulate the lenders instead, who come in various forms. Some provide a credit line before the purchase, some offer loans at the point of purchase, and some allow cash withdrawals. Furthermore, these platforms include those that sell their own products on installment plans, or those that offer installment plans for other companies' products within their apps.

"If the Bank of Thailand prohibits BNPLs for purchases below 200 baht, it might encourage people to buy more to reach the threshold and be able to make payments, rather than helping to reduce debt. Alternatively, prohibiting BNPLs for certain types of goods could lead to protests from manufacturers or sellers of those products."

The initial approach will involve establishing common regulatory standards to ensure all players are subject to the same rules, starting with less stringent measures and gradually increasing their strictness. The Bank of Thailand aims to finalize the plan and begin public hearings by the end of 2569.

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