Globlex Securities expects the Thai stock market to trade sideways this week within the range of 1,600-1,650 points, following the Constitutional Court's ruling on the 4 billion baht loan emergency decree.

Globlex Securities views the Thai stock market this week as trading sideways within the 1,600-1,650 point range. This is driven by positive factors such as the Constitutional Court's ruling allowing the 400 billion baht loan decree to proceed, boosting government investment. The firm also monitors the recovery in consumer confidence, the first in four months. Recommended stocks include CK, STECON, WHAUP, CPALL, and CPAXT, which are expected to benefit from government projects.

July 13, 2569 Ms. Wilawanee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director, Globlex Securities Co., Ltd. or GBS The outlook for the Thai stock market this week suggests the index is likely to trade sideways within the range of 1,600-1,650 points. Although the market faces pressure from the renewed conflict between the United States and Iran, it is generally supported by several positive factors, particularly the Constitutional Court's 7:2 ruling that the 4 billion baht loan decree does not violate the constitution, allowing government investment projects to proceed.

This includes the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June, which increased for the first time in four months, reflecting reduced public concerns about the international situation and the positive impact of the "Thailand Helps Thailand Plus 60/40" measures that stimulated domestic spending.

Furthermore, there is good news with the BOI approving a Nestlé investment project worth over 23,000 billion baht to construct a new coffee production plant in Thailand, reinforcing confidence in using Thailand as a key global production base. Supporting international factors include the decrease in initial jobless claims in the US to 215,000, lower than analysts' expectations, as well as the Chinese government's relaxed measures on technology imports, allowing AI companies to import H200 chips from Nvidia with limited restrictions.

However, investors still need to closely monitor risk factors, including the conflict in the Middle East following Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacks on US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain in retaliation for a new US attack. They also need to watch the Federal Reserve (FED) meeting; the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors give a 72.7% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates at 3.50-3.75% at the July meeting and a 63.5% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by at least 0.25% to 3.75-4.00% at the September meeting. Meanwhile, the CP Group has submitted a letter to the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) requesting the right to terminate the "high-speed train" contract under clause 6.2, citing SRT's actions.

Furthermore, various situations affecting investment still need to be monitored, especially domestically. In week 4, the Ministry of Commerce will announce the international trade situation, while the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) will report on the production and export figures for automobiles, motorcycles, and automotive parts. In week 5, the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) will release the industrial production index, while the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) will report on the fiscal and economic situation, regional economic conditions, and the regional economic confidence index. On July 31, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will report on the Thai economic and financial situation, and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will hold its 4th meeting of 69 in August. Internationally, on July 14-15, Kevin Warsh, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will testify to Congress on monetary policy. Between July 14-16, the US will report key economic figures including the business confidence index, employment, inflation (CPI/PPI), manufacturing, oil inventories, retail sales, the housing market, and pending home sales. The Fed will hold its 5th meeting of 2569 on July 28-29.

Regarding investment strategy, Mr. Wacharen Jongyanyong, Director of Research at Globlex Securities, recommends that investors focus on stocks that directly benefit from the progress of government projects under the 4 billion baht loan decree. His top stock recommendations include CK, STECON, WHAUP, CPALL, and CPAXT.

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