FETCO sees a recovery in Thai stocks, with foreigners focusing on long-term investments, and hopes TISA will open the way for individual stock purchases.

FETCO assesses the Thai stock market is entering a recovery phase as foreign investors shift from short-term speculation to long-term investment. They expect TISA to reach a conclusion in September, paving the way for investment in individual stocks, believing large-cap and dividend-paying stocks will benefit the most.

July 21, 2569 Mr. Paiboon Nalintrungkur, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Businesses (FETCO) And the Chief Executive Officer of TISCO Securities Company Limited. Following the SET Sustainability Forum #2/2026, themed "Turning Global Volatility into Strategic Supply Chain Advantage," organized by the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), it was revealed that the overall Thai stock market is showing more positive developments. Clear signs of economic recovery have restored investor confidence, after the past three years where the market was primarily driven by short-term investments such as robot trading. Currently, there is a shift in foreign capital flows toward long-term investments, with increasing net buying.

Meanwhile, several foreign brokers have been gradually upgrading their targets for the Thai stock market index. Some estimate targets are higher than those of domestic brokers, and they see the index having the potential to rise to 1,700-1,800 points. Although this may not happen within this year, it reflects the fact that the Thai stock market still has potential for further growth in the future.

In terms of valuation, the Thai stock market is currently trading at a P/E ratio of around 13.5 times, and is projected to decline to approximately 12 times next year. This is considered attractive given the fundamentals, while the earnings of listed companies are still growing at a rate of 6-8%, especially the banking sector, which continues to generate strong performance.

Furthermore, it is believed that Thailand has the opportunity to benefit from global supply chain relocation, which could lead to an influx of hundreds of billions of baht in investment into the country, especially during a time when many regions around the world face geopolitical uncertainty, such as conflicts in the Middle East, causing investors to seek new, more stable investment bases.

However, compared to global investment inflows, the amount of capital flowing into the Thai stock market is still relatively small. This is because many large foreign companies have market capitalization many times greater than the entire Thai stock market, indicating significant potential for further foreign investment inflows into the Thai market in the future.

The new long-term savings and investment promotion measure, or TISA, is currently under development. The concept involves dividing investments into two forms: retirement investments held until age 55, and investments aimed at building a long-term savings culture, with a holding period of approximately 5 years, similar to the original LTF funds.

Initially, this approach may allow investors to withdraw dividend payments, thereby encouraging investment in dividend-paying stocks. Furthermore, it would be a permanent measure, not a temporary one, to ensure a continuous inflow of new investment into the capital market every year. This would reduce the risk of a massive sell-off when tax benefits expire, or a "tax bomb" like in the past, and build a long-term base of new investors similar to that of Japan.

Furthermore, a key turning point for TISA is the concept of allowing investors to invest in individual stocks, not just through mutual funds as in the past. A sub-account system will be used to track tax benefits, and details are expected to be clarified and announced by September.

Mr. Paiboon said While awaiting new measures, investors can still utilize tax benefits from investments in Thai ESG funds, which still have a maximum investment limit of 300,000 baht. The limit for TISA is still under consideration, but the goal is to ensure it is at least the same as the previous LTF tax benefit of 500,000 baht.

This If the TISA project is approved, it is believed that the stocks most likely to benefit are large-cap stocks and stocks that consistently pay dividends. Because it is suitable for long-term investment and helps build confidence for investors who want to hold assets to receive continuous returns over the long term.

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