Globlex Securities forecasts the Thai stock market to trade within the range of 1,600-1,650 points this week, impacted by rising oil prices and the inflation crisis.

Globlex Securities expects the Thai stock market to fluctuate downwards this week within the range of 1,600-1,650 points, following global market trends. The main pressure comes from the attack on oil tankers in the Red Sea, which has driven crude oil prices higher and fueled concerns about an inflation crisis and a potential interest rate hike.

July 27, 2569 Ms. Wilawanee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director, Globlex Securities Co., Ltd. or GBS The outlook for the Thai stock market this week indicates a potential downward trend, following global markets. The main pressure comes from geopolitical tensions stemming from the Houthi rebels in Yemen, supported by Iran, attacking two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea.

This event impacted confidence in the energy supply, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and rekindling market concerns about potentially accelerating inflation. Therefore, the index is estimated to trade within the range of 1,600-1,650 points this week.

However, the overall market still has positive factors supporting it, particularly the strength of the domestic economy. This follows the Board of Investment (BOI) revealing that investment promotion applications in the first half of 2569 continued to grow, reaching a value exceeding 1.47 trillion baht, a 37% increase. This is expected to create over 82,000 new jobs and generate over 1.2 trillion baht in export value per year.

In addition, the U.S. received good news with the number of initial jobless claims falling to 187,000, much lower than analysts' expectations, as well as the agreement reached between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia on nuclear technology cooperation.

However, investors still need to be cautious of negative factors that could create continued volatility, including U.S. trade policy. The Trump administration announced tariffs on imports from 60 countries, with Thailand being subject to the highest rate of 12.5%, citing alleged forced labor. In addition, the U.S. is likely to delay renewing the USMCA trade agreement.

This includes the direction of global interest rates, with CME's FedWatch tool indicating that while investors give a 64% probability that the FED will keep interest rates unchanged in July, a high 83% probability believes the FED will "raise interest rates" in September. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB), although keeping interest rates unchanged in the latest round of trading, is likely to raise them again in the autumn due to the energy price crisis. The VIX Index, a measure of anxiety in the New York stock market, surged more than 12.38% to close at 18.70, reflecting the fragile market conditions.

Factors affecting investment that need to be monitored in the country include: Should be followed up.

• International trade update by the Ministry of Commerce and automotive production/export figures by the Federation of Thai Industries (Week 4).
• The release of the industrial production index and regional fiscal and economic reports (Week 5).
• Economic report from the Bank of Thailand (July 31) and the Monetary Policy Committee meeting (August 26).

Foreign Affairs watch

• The Federal Reserve (FED) meeting on July 28-29 (results to be released on the morning of July 30), along with the release of key US economic data throughout the week (durable goods orders, private sector employment figures, consumer confidence index).
• China's industrial profit report (July 27).

Mr. Wacharen Jongyanyong, Director of Research at Globlex Securities. From an investment strategy perspective, in a market pressured by external factors, it is recommended that investors focus on defensive strategies and select investments in stocks with strong fundamentals and resilience to economic volatility. Five top stocks are recommended, aligning with the survey and recommendations of the Investment Analysts Association (IAA) as good stocks to accumulate in the second half of the year: ADVANC, AOT, BH, GULF, and KBANK.

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